POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Session 2 - Background & first

steps
Ben Jarabi
Population Studies & Research Institute
University of Nairobi
1

Population change
4 basic components of population change:
Births
Deaths
Inmigration
Outmigration

Excess of births over deaths results in

natural increase
Excess of deaths over births results in
natural decrease
The difference between inmigration and
outmigration is net migration

Population change
Closed population
A population for which immigration and out
migration are nil, e.g., the population of the
world as a whole
Population growth depends entirely on the
difference between births and deaths

Open population
A population in which there may be
migration (international)
The growth of an open population consists of
natural increase and net migration

Demographic Balancing Equation

The principle of the balancing equation:
In any time interval, the pop. of a country
can increase or decrease only as a result of
births, deaths and movements across the
country's boundaries
Births & immigration add to the pop., &
deaths and emigration subtract from it
If data are available from 2 censuses, and
the numbers of births, deaths and in- and
out-migrants are known, then the equation
must balance exactly, if all the data are
perfectly accurate

Demographic Balancing Equation

Pop. change = (Births - Deaths) +
(Immigrants -Emigrants)
Pt = P0 + (B -D) + (I-E)
where: P0 = initial population
Pt = population after time t

Worldwide, natural increase is the most

important component of overall
population change over time

Demographic Balancing Equation

Each component of population change can
be expressed as an absolute number, or
more commonly, as a rate
A rate always has 3 components: a
numerator, a denominator and a time
period
The denominator for the calculation of an
annual rate is the estimated mid-year
population
Demographic rates are ordinarily calculated
per 1,000 persons per year

Growth rate
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = CBR
CDR
RNI is expressed as a percent (%) & is often
used as the measure of the annual rate of
population growth

Intrinsic Rate
A constant growth rate of a population with
fixed mortality and fertility schedules resulting in a stable population

Projection - Definition

A population projection is:

An extrapolation of historical data into the
future
An attempt to describe what is likely to
happen under certain explicit assumptions
about the future as related to the immediate
past
A set of calculations, which show the future
course of fertility, mortality and migration
depending on the assumptions used
8

Projection Linear growth

Implies that there is a constant

amount of increase per unit of time

A straight line is used to project

population growth

It is expressed as Pt = P0 + bt
where P0 = initial population
Pt = population t years later
b = annual amount of population change
9

Projection Linear growth

Assumptions:
Growth rate is constant
Change is only experienced at the end of
unit time
Resultant change (i.e. interest) does not
yield any change

10

Projection Geometric growth

The growth assumes a geometric

series

It is expressed as
Pt = P0 (1+ r)t
where P0 = initial population
Pt = population t years later

11

Projection Linear growth

Assumptions:
Growth rate is constant
Change is only experienced at the end of
unit time
Compounding takes place at specified
intervals

12

Projection Exponential growth

This is the equivalent to the growth of

an investment with compound interest

Growth is constant, but compounding
is continuous

It is expressed as Pt = P0(ert)
where P0 = initial population
Pt = population t years later
r = annual rate of growth
e = base of the natural logarithm
13

Projection - Definition

A population projection is:

An extrapolation of historical data into the
future
An attempt to describe what is likely to
happen under certain explicit assumptions
about the future as related to the immediate
past
A set of calculations, which show the future
course of fertility, mortality and migration
depending on the assumptions used
14

Cohort component method

Data required

Initial (base) population by age and

sex

Assumptions on mortality - survival

ratios by age and sex

Assumptions on fertility - ASFRs

For an open population, assumptions

on international migration

Cohort component method

Computational steps:

Project forward the base pop. in each age

group in order to estimate the number still
alive at the beginning of the next interval
Compute the number of births for each age
group over the time interval, and compute
the number who survive to the beginning
of the next interval
Add migrants and subtract emigrants in
each age group or compute the number of
births to these migrants during the
interval, and project forward the number
of migrants and number of births that will
survive to the beginning of the next
interval

L x5
n Lx

Cohort component method

Population aged 5 years and over:

Obtain the survivors at the end of each

projection interval (except for the open
age group) by multiplying the survival
ratio to the number of persons at the
beginning of the interval, remembering to
move the result one row down. In life table
terms, nLx specifies the mid-year pop.
between age x and x+n. Therefore, the
survival ratio, the proportion of persons
surviving from age x to x+n, is given by
xLx+5/xLx (& Tx+5/Tx for the open age group)
The number of survivors in the open age
group is obtained by adding the survivors
from the preceding age group to the
survivors of the open age group

Cohort component method

Population below age 5:

The pop. below age 5 at the end of the 5year projection interval consists of
children born during the interval
To obtain this pop., it is first necessary to
compute the number of births by sex
occurring during this interval and then
apply survival ratios to this pop.
The number of births is calculated from the
ASFRs, the number of women in the
childbearing ages and the sex ratio at birth
The female population exposed to this
fertility schedule in each age group is the
mean of the initial pop. & the projected
pop. since both groups contribute births to
the age group 0-4

Cohort component method

Population below age 5:

Total births = n/2(fP + fP)*ASFR, where

fP and fP are initial and projected female
populations respectively

Male births = Total births * SRB/(100 +

SRB), where SRB = Sex ratio at birth

Female births = Total births * 100/(100 +

SRB)

Po = Births * survival ratio (i.e.

Lo/5lo)

Cohort component method

Age

Lx

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

Px

Px+5

Lo

L5

Po

B* 5Lo/5lo

P5

P10

L10

L15

P15

Po * 5L5/5Lo

P5 * 5L10/5L5

P10 * 5L15/5L10

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

x - x+5

Lx

Px

Px-5 * 5Lx/5Lx-5