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t Distribution
William
William Gosset,
Gosset, writing
writing under
under the
the name
name Student,
Student,
is
is the
the founder
founder of
of the
the tt distribution.
distribution.
Gosset
Gosset was
was an
an Oxford
Oxford graduate
graduate in
in mathematics
mathematics and
and
worked
worked for
for the
the Guinness
Guinness Brewery
Brewery in
in Dublin.
Dublin.
He
He developed
developed the
the tt distribution
distribution while
while working
working on
on
small-scale
small-scale materials
materials and
and temperature
temperature experiments.
experiments.
t Distribution
The
The tt distribution
distribution is
is aa family
family of
of similar
similar probability
probability
distributions.
distributions.
A
A specific
specific tt distribution
distribution depends
depends on
on aa parameter
parameter
known
known as
as the
the degrees
degrees of
of freedom.
freedom.
Degrees
Degrees of
of freedom
freedom refer
refer to
to the
the number
number of
of
independent
independent pieces
pieces of
of information
information that
that go
go into
into the
the
computation
computation of
of s.
s.
t Distribution
A
A tt distribution
distribution with
with more
more degrees
degrees of
of freedom
freedom has
has
less
less dispersion.
dispersion.
As
As the
the degrees
degrees of
of freedom
freedom increases,
increases, the
the difference
difference
between
between the
the tt distribution
distribution and
and the
the standard
standard normal
normal
probability
probability distribution
distribution becomes
becomes smaller
smaller and
and
smaller.
smaller.
t Distribution
t
distribution
(20 degrees
of freedom)
Standard
normal
distribution
t
distribution
(10 degrees
of freedom)
z, t
0
t Distribution
For
For more
more than
than 100
100 degrees
degrees of
of freedom,
freedom, the
the standard
standard
normal
normal zz value
value provides
provides aa good
good approximation
approximation to
to
the
the tt value.
value.
The
The standard
standard normal
normal zz values
values can
can be
be found
found in
in the
the
infinite
infinite degrees
degrees (( )) row
row of
of the
the tt distribution
distribution table.
table.
t Distribution
Degrees
of Freedom
.20
.10
.05
.025
.01
.005
50
.849
1.299
1.676
2.009
2.403
2.678
60
.848
1.296
1.671
2.000
2.390
2.660
80
.846
1.292
1.664
1.990
2.374
2.639
100
.845
1.290
1.660
1.984
2.364
2.626
.842
1.282
1.645
1.960
2.326
2.576
Standard normal
z values
Interval Estimate
x t /2
s
n
of Freedom
.20
.100
.050
.025
.010
.005
15
.866
1.341
1.753
2.131
2.602
2.947
16
.865
1.337
1.746
2.120
2.583
2.921
17
.863
1.333
1.740
2.110
2.567
2.898
18
.862
1.330
1.734
2.101
2.520
2.878
19
.861
.
1.328
.
1.729
.
2.093
.
2.539
.
2.861
.
Interval Estimate
x t.025
s
n
Margin
of Error
55
750 2.131
650 29.30
16
We are 95% confident that the mean rent per month
for the population of efficiency apartments within a
half-mile of campus is between $720.70 and $779.30.
In
In most
most applications,
applications, aa sample
sample size
size of
of n
n=
= 30
30 is
is
adequate
to
adequate when
when using
using the
the expression
expressionx t / 2 s n
to
develop
develop an
an interval
interval estimate
estimate of
of aa population
population mean.
mean.
If
If the
the population
population distribution
distribution is
is highly
highly skewed
skewed or
or
contains
contains outliers,
outliers, aa sample
sample size
size of
of 50
50 or
or more
more is
is
recommended.
recommended.
If
If the
the population
population is
is believed
believed to
to be
be at
at least
least
approximately
approximately normal,
normal, aa sample
sample size
size of
of less
less than
than 15
15
can
can be
be used.
used.
Can the
population standard
deviation be assumed
known ?
Known
Case
Use
x z / 2
No
s
Unknown
x t / 2
Case
n
Margin of Error
E z /2
( z / 2 ) 2 2
n
E2
3.
3. Use
Use judgment
judgment or
or aa best
best guess
guess for
for the
the value
value of
of ..
500
n
(1.96)2 (4,500)2
n
311.17 312
2
(500)
A sample of size 312 is needed to reach a desired
precision of + $500 at 95% confidence.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
The
The general
general form
form of
of an
an interval
interval estimate
estimate of
of aa
population
population proportion
proportion is
is
p Margin of Error
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
The
The sampling
sampling distribution
distribution of
ofp plays
plays aa key
key role
role in
in
computing
computing the
the margin
margin of
of error
error for
for this
this interval
interval
estimate.
estimate.
The
The sampling
sampling distribution
distribution of
of p can
can be
be approximated
approximated
by
by aa normal
normal distribution
distribution whenever
whenever np
np >
>5
5 and
and
n(1
n(1 p)
p) >
> 5.
5.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
/2
1 - of all
p values
z / 2 p
/2
z / 2 p
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Interval Estimate
p z / 2
where:
p (1 p )
n
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
p z / 2
where:
n = 500,
p (1 p )
n
p= 220/500 = .44,
z/2 = 1.96
.44(1 .44)
.44 1.96
= .44 + .0435
500
PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all voters
that favor the candidate is between .3965 and .4835.
Margin of Error
E z / 2
p (1 p )
n
( z / 2 ) 2 p* (1 p* )
n
E2
The planning value p* can be chosen by:
1. Using the sample proportion from a
previous sample of the same or similar
units, or
2. Selecting a preliminary sample and
using the
sample proportion from this sample.
3. Use judgment or a best guess for a p*
value.
p(1 p)
.03
n
p that
At 99% confidence, z.005 = 2.576. Recall
= .44. (z )2 p(1 p)
2
(2.576)
(.44)(.56)
/ 2
n
1817
2
2
E
(.03)
A sample of size 1817 is needed to reach a desired
precision of + .03 at 99% confidence.