INDIA V/S US ECONOMY

The Indian Population –

An overview

India's estimated population to be 1.2

billion by 2010
India became only the second country in
the world after China to cross the one
billion mark.
The sex ratio (i.e. number of females per
thousand males) of population was 933
Although India occupies only 2.4% of the
world's land area, it supports over 15% of
the world's population.
 Cont…..
• Two other categories of India's population
that are closely scrutinized by the
national census are the Scheduled
Castes and Scheduled Tribes
• The greatest concentrations of Scheduled
Caste members in 1991 lived in the
states of Andhra Pradesh ,Tamil Nadu,
West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh
• The government has recognized 18
languages as official; Hindi is the most
widely spoken
• Refugees from Bangladesh, Burma, and Sri
State wise
distribution
Traditional Religion system
Modern Religion System
 The USA Population –
An Overview


• The U.S. population growth rate is slowing

• The U.S. population will be older than it is
now
• The U.S. population is becoming more
diverse by race and Hispanic origin.
• Growth of the Hispanic-origin population
will probably be a major element of the
total population growth.
• Future fertility and immigration may play
major roles in the nation's growth
Race Distribution
India v/s Usa
 USA’s Population
Estimated
 India’s Population
Estimated
India &USA-Future
Indian Economy
• Agriculture provides livelihood for 60% of Indians. The
service sector makes up a further 28% of employment,
and industrial sector around 12%.


• One estimate says that only one in five job-seekers has had
any sort of vocational training. The labor force totals
half a billion workers.


• Major agricultural products include rice, wheat, oilseed,

cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes, cattle, water
buffalo, sheep, goats, poultry and fish.
•
• Major industries include textiles, chemicals, food
processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement,
mining, petroleum, machinery and software design.
INDIAN GDP
• The 2007 GDP figure stood at around $2.966
trillion.


• In Purchasing Power Parity GDP, the figure

for India was 1.5 trillion US Dollars in
2008.


• Manufacturing sector growth has dropped

down to about 5.8 percent in three months.
• Farm production has also been affected,
registering a figure of about 2.9 percent.
• India's gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 7.5 per cent, 9.5 per
cent, 9.7 per cent and 9 per cent in the first four years from fiscal year
2004-05 to 2007-08 recording a sustained growth of over 9 per cent for
three consecutive years for the first time.


• India is the second fastest growing economy in the world with 7.1 per cent
GDP expansion in 2008-09


• In 2007, India's GDP was $1.237 trillion, which makes it the twelfth-
largest economy in the world or fourth largest by purchasing power
adjusted exchange rates.


• The growth drivers for the period were agriculture, services, manufacturing
along with trade and construction.

• The food grain production recorded an increase of 10 million tonnes each

year during this period and touched an all time high of 230 million
tonnes in 2007-08.


• The manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 9.5 per cent per annum in
the period 2004-05 to 2007-08.
 GDP Figures

Year GDP %
1997 - 1998 4 . 315
1998 - 1999 6 . 768
1999 - 2000 6 . 45
2000 - 2001 4 . 49
2001 - 2002 5 . 753
2002 - 2003 3 . 943
2003 - 2004 8 . 46
2004 - 2005 7 . 475
2005 - 2006 9 . 358
2006 - 2007 9 . 635
 US GDP
• As of 2007, US GDP (purchasing power parity) was $13.78
trillion. US GDP (official exchange rate) was about $13.84
trillion.


• Real growth rate of US GDP in 2007 was 2 percent. In 2007,

per capita GDP of USA was nearly $45,800.


• Going by GDP per capita figures, US is ranked #10 in world.



• In 2007, 1.2 percent of total US GDP was contributed by

agricultural sector.
• Industrial sector made up 19.8 percent of US GDP in 2007.
Services sector made up 79 percent of US GDP in that same
period.
US GDP GROWTH RATE
• According to US economic statistics major industrial products
are petroleum, electronics, steel, food processing, motor
vehicles, consumer goods, aerospace, lumber,
telecommunications, mining and chemicals.


• Downswing of real GDP of US has been caused, to a large

extent, due to decreasing contributions of personal
consumption expenditures sector, equipment and software
sector and residential fixed investment scenario


• USA economic data for fiscal 2008 revealed that rate of

inflation with regard to consumer prices was 4.2 percent.

Human Development Index
INDIA AND US
Table 1: India's human development index 2006 and underlying indicators in comparison with selected
countries.
HDI value Life expectancy at Adult literacy rate Combined primary, GDP per capita
2006 birth (% ages 15 and secondary and (PPP US$)
(years) above) tertiary gross 2006
2006 2006 enrolment ratio
(%)
2006

1. Iceland (0.968) 1. Japan (82.4) 1. Georgia (100.0) 1. Australia (114.2) 1. Luxembourg

(77,089)
130. Congo (0.619) 125. Pakistan (64.9) 116. Angola (67.4) 132. Lesotho (61.5) 124. Cape Verde
(2,833)
131. Bhutan (0.613) 126. Comoros (64.5) 117. Congo 133. Trinidad and 125. Guyana (2,782)
(Democratic Tobago (61.1)
Republic of the)
(67.2)
132. India (0.609) 127. India (64.1) 118. India (65.2) 134. India (61.0) 126. India (2,489)

133. Lao People's 128. Lao People's 119. Rwanda (64.9) 135. Nepal (60.8) 127. Nicaragua
Democratic Republic Democratic Republic (2,441)
(0.608) (63.7)
134. Solomon Islands 129. Mauritania 120. Ghana (64.2) 136. Swaziland 128. Moldova
(0.591) (63.6) (60.1) (2,396)
179. Sierra Leone 179. Swaziland 147. Mali (22.9) 179. Djibouti (25.5) 178. Congo
(0.329) (40.2) (Democratic
Republic of the)
(281)
able 1: United States's human development index 2006 and underlying indicators in comparison with
selected countries.

HDI value Life expectancy at birth Combined primary, GDP per capita
2006 (years) secondary and tertiary (PPP US$)
2006 gross enrolment ratio 2006
(%)
2006

1. Iceland (0.968) 1. Japan (82.4) 1. Australia (114.2) 1. Luxembourg (77,089)

13. Denmark (0.952) 29. Korea (Republic of) 18. Sweden (94.3) 6. Singapore (47,426)
(78.2)

14. Austria (0.951) 30. Denmark (78.1) 19. Slovenia (92.8) 7. Kuwait (46,638)

15. United States 31. United States 20. United States 8. United States
(0.950) (78.0) (92.4) (43,968)
16. Spain (0.949) 32. Cuba (77.9) 21. Lithuania (92.3) 9. Ireland (40,823)

17. Belgium (0.948) 33. Portugal (77.9) 22. Italy (91.8) 10. Hong Kong, China
(SAR) (39,146)

179. Sierra Leone (0.329) 179. Swaziland (40.2) 179. Djibouti (25.5) 178. Congo (Democratic
Republic of the) (281)
 INDIA V/S US –
EXPORT AND IMPORTS
INDIA’S IMPORTS/EXPORTS
• 26th largest export economy in the world


• 2009-2010 estimated export growth at 3%



• Import of Chinese toys in India banned since

Feb 09


• Imports contracted 18.2% in Jan 09



• Imports decline due to slowdown in Industrial

Production, slippage in domestic demand
and dip in international commodity prices
•
•
TRADE POSITIONS OF INDIA &
USA
Shifts in the contribution of
agriculture, industrial and
services sector
Indian Sectoral contribution
towards GDP
 Agriculture
• Agriculture is the predominant occupation in India, accounting for about
60% of employment.


• The service sector makes up a further 28%, and industrial sector around
12%.


• Major agricultural products include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea,
sugarcane, potatoes, cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goats, poultry and
fish.


• India is the largest producer in the world of milk, cashew nuts, coconuts,
tea, ginger, turmeric and black pepper.


• It is the second largest producer of wheat, rice, sugar, groundnut and

inland fish. It is the third largest producer of tobacco. India accounts
for 10% of the world fruit production with first rank in the production
of banana and sapota.
•
Agriculture sector growth
 Industry
•
• Major industries include textiles, chemicals, food processing,
steel, transportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum,
machinery and software design


• Investment in Indian companies reached record levels by 1994

and many multinationals decided to set up shop in India
•
• Over the period 1992-93 to 1999-2000, the manufacturing
sector has recorded an average annual growth rate of 6.3 per
cent and in 2001-02; it recorded a growth of 2.8 per cent.
Industrial sector growth

Year Growth %

1992-99 6.30%

1999-2000 4.20%

2000-01 6.70%

2001-02 2.80%

2002-08 9.50%
 Indian Services growth

§The software industry was one of the fastest growing sectors in the last
decade with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50 per cent.

§Software service exports increased from US$ 4.02 billion in 1999-

2000 to US$ 6.3 billion in 2000-01, thereby registering a growth of 57
per cent.

India's success in the software sector can be largely attributed to the

industry's ability to cultivate superior knowledge through intensive
R&D efforts
expertise in applying the knowledge in commercially viable
technologies
Services sector growth
US sectoral contribution
towards GDP
US Services sector
US Service economy
US services sector
• Eight of every 10 U.S. jobs are in the services sector.
Services industries provide more new jobs than the rest
of the U.S. economy combined.


• Over the past two decades, the services sector has created
almost 40 million new jobs across the full range of
services: software engineers, nurses, mortgage
specialists, lawyers, instructors, mutual fund managers,
film and television technicians, insurance agents, tour
operators, and many others.


• The service sector -- including everything from restaurants

and hotels to banks and airlines -- represents about 80
percent of economic activity in the United States.
•
 US-agriculture sector
• Productivity growth was much more important for
agriculture than for the overall economy


• More than 70 percent of growth was caused by additions of

labor, capital, and material inputs.


• Because of the large number of producers and the dispersed

nature of production, public investments have been a
very important source of productivity growth for
agriculture.


• Public agricultural R&D and infrastructure accounted for

75 percent of the growth in agricultural productivity
between 1949 and 1991.
US-Industry/manufacturing
sector
• USA is the leading manufacturer in the world with a 2007
industrial output of US$2,696,880 millions. Main industries
are petroleum, steel, motor vehicles, aerospace,
telecommunications, chemicals, electronics, food processing,
consumer goods, lumber, mining.
• Industrial production slipped by 0.5% in January 2009 despite
stimulus packages declared by the administration to defend
against the impact of worldwide slump.
• IIP grew by 6.2% during the corresponding period a year ago.
• Manufacturing, which declined 0.8%, led the reduction in
industrial production, which was being followed by mining
output, which declined by 0.4%.
• According to official projection, industrial growth is figured at
4.8% for 2008-09.
•
•
 A comparison among the 3
sectors in US
• The growth of the services sector has benefited most
from favorable changes in relative prices.


• While manufacturing, agriculture, and food

processing have suffered negative terms of trade.


• An increase in the price of manufacturing leads to a

small increase in the supply of agricultural output.


• This result is explained, in part, by agriculture’s

 being a supplier of primary inputs to the
manufacturing sector.
US Real GDP Growth
BUSINESS CYCLES –
INDIA V/S US
BUSINESS CYCLE CHRONOLOGY FOR INDIA
INDIA
Attributes US ECONOMY

Trade organizations NAFTA, WTO, OECD and others

GDP (PPP) $13.81 trillion (2007)

GDP ranking 1st in GDP

GDP growth 2.1% (II quarter 2008, from year ago)

GDP per capita (real GDP) $45,850 (2008)
GDP by sector agriculture (0.9%), industry (20.6%), services (78.5%)

Inflation 5.6%(Jun 2007 to Jun 2008)

Population below poverty line 12.5% (2007)
Labour force 154.5 million (includes unemployed) (May 2008)
Unemployment 6.1% (August 2008)

Main industries petroleum, steel, motor vehicles, aerospace, telecommunications,

chemicals, electronics, food processing, consumer goods, timber,
mining, defense

Exports $1.149 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.)

Main Export partners Canada 21%, Mexico 12%, China 6%, Japan 5%, United Kingdom 4%,
Germany 4%

Imports $1.985 trillion c.i.f. (2007 est.)

Main Import Partners China 17%, Canada 16%, Mexico 11%, Japan 7%, Germany 5%

Revenues $2.568 trillion (2007)

Expenses $2.896 trillion (2007)

Economic aid $19 billion, 0.2% of GDP (2004)

 Prospects of India-USA
cooperation
• There are several areas where economic cooperation between India and the US
can progress further. These include infrastructure, IT, Telecom sector,
energy and other knowledge industries such as pharmaceuticals and
biotechnology.


• The Government of India is continuously reviewing its policies to create an

investor friendly environment in sectors such as roads, ports and airports.
Private sector participation in management, BOT projects, green-field
airports, terminals and shipping berths and capacity augmentation has been
initiated.


• The IT sector is India’s fastest growing sectors with over 50 percent average
annual compounded growth since 1991. Today, nearly two in five of the

Fortune 500 companies outsource their software requirements to India.
• Abundant investment opportunities exist for further strengthening Indo-US
economic ties in the IT sector, especially, in areas like communication
infrastructure, satellite-based communication wireless, IT-enabled
services, and so on
• Defense cooperation between Indian and American armed forces builds
military capacities on both sides for combined operations.
•
• With about 20 million people entering the middle class, India's growth is in
the domestic market. India is not merely an exporter but a big importer.
India presents a huge market opportunity to other countries.


• India’s energy sector has been an important destination for US investment.

The sector offers for exploitation a vast untapped potential to investors in
hydro electricity, oil & natural gas and coal
•
• In order to promote bilateral trade and investment in the knowledge- based
industries, the US India Business Council (USIBC), along with FICCI,
has launched a Knowledge Trade Initiative (KTI). KTI aims to solidify
Indo-US leadership in the knowledge economy by harmonizing bilateral
positions on key issues affecting knowledge trade.


• The US investor community is today increasingly sharing confidence in the

future of the Indian economy. The growing synergy between the two
countries in the technology sectors and mutually shared respect for
democracy, rule of law and well established business practices make the
two countries natural business partners.