NUMERICAL WEATHER

PREDICTION (NWP)
Kelompok 13
Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi
Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Institut Pertanian Bogor
2015

Hilda A
yu P
(G2412
0068)

Apa itu Model?

Model:
Alat yang digunakan
untuk mensimulasi atau
memprediksi pola
perilaku sebuah sistem
dinamika seperti
Atmosfer.
(Resource: Kalnay, E., 2003: Atmospheric
Modeling, Data Assimilation and
Predictability)

Tipe-tipe model
Heuristic

Empirical

Conceptual

Analytic

Numerical

Operational Model Overviews

Model
LFM
NGM
ETA
RUC
MM5
GFDL
COAMPS
WRF

Regional

Global

Owner
(NCEP) (Phased out)
(NCEP) (Phased out)
(NCEP) (Replaced by NAM, NAM-WRF)
(NCAR/NCEP) (Replaced by RAP)
(PSU / Air Force, etc.)
(NCEP and GFDL Lab)
(Navy)
(NCEP)

Model
Owner
GFS (Formerly the
AVN/MRF)
(NCEP)
NOGAPS
(Navy)
GEM
(Canada)
ECMWF
(European Union)
UKMET
(United Kingdom)

Numerical Weather
PredictionPrediction
(NWP)is very
difficult,
especially if it's about the
future.
Nils Bohr

Apa itu NWP?

obtain
to
d
e
s
u
e
u
iq
The techn
ast of the
c
e
r
fo
e
iv
t
c
je
an ob
r (up to
future weathe
weeks) by
possibly two
erning
v
o
g
f
o
t
e
s
a
solving
cribe the
s
e
d
t
a
h
t
s
n
o
equati
s that
le
b
ia
r
a
v
f
o
n
evolutio
tate of
s
t
n
e
s
e
r
p
e
h
define t
r e.
the atmosphe

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SEJARAH SINGKAT
Recognition by V. Bjerknes in 1904 that
forecasting is fundamentally an initial-value
problem and basic system of equations already
known
L. F. Richardsons (1922) attempt at practical
NWP
Radiosonde invention in 1930s made upper-air
data available
Late 1940s: First successful dynamical-numerical
forecast made by Charney, Fjortoft, and von
Neumann
1960s: Edward Lorenz shows the atmosphere is
chaotic and its predictibility limit is about two
weeks
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SISTEM NWP
NWP entails not just the design
and development of atmospheric
models, but includes all the
different components of an NWP
system
It is an integrated, end-to-end
forecast process system

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PROSEDUR SISTEM FORECASTING

The actual forecasting part of the model is only one part of a very
complicated procedure of
Data collection and assimilation
Forecasting
Post Processing
Distribution to users

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DATA COLLECTION AND ASIMILATION

Fase Analisis
Forcasting
sebelumnya
DATA
GRID 3D
Observasi

ASIMILASI
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KOMPONEN MODEL NWP

Governing
equations
Numerical
procedures

Persamaan massa, momentum,

kelembaban ,termodinamika
dan hukum gas.
Ex: F = ma
>> Perkiraan yang digunakan untuk
mengestimasi setiap istilah.

2 >> digunakan untuk mengintegrasi model

kedepannya dalam waktu tertentu
>> Kondisi Batas

Parameterizations

Initial conditions
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Approximations of physical
processes

Sistem Observasi
Analisis Objektif
Initialization
Data asimilasi

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Grid spacing (resolution) defines the scale of the

features you can simulate with the model.

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Good Numerical Forecasts Require

Initial conditions that adequately represent
the state of the atmosphere (threedimensional wind, temperature, pressure,
moisture and cloud parameters)
Numerical weather prediction model that
adequately represents the physical laws of
the atmosphere over the whole globe

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ERROR IN NWP

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Sumber Kesalahan dalam NWP

S o u rc e s o f M o d e l E rro r
E r r o r s in t h e
I n it ia l C o n d it io n s
(e rro n e o u s d a ta )
( la c k o f d a t a )

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E r r o r s in M o d e l
( S im p lis t ic A s s u m p t io n s )
( A n a ly s is E r r o r s )
( C o m p u t a t io n a l E r r o r s )

I n t r in s ic P r e d ic t a b ilit y
L im it a t io n s
( S m a ll a n a ly s is e r r o r s > > > )
> > > L a r g e fo r e c a s t e r r o r s )

Initial Condition Errors

Observational Data Coverage

Spatial Density
Temporal Frequency
Errors in the Data
Instrument Errors
Representativeness Errors
Errors in Quality Control
Errors in Objective Analysis
Errors in Data Assimilation
Missing Variables

Model Errors

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Equations of Motion
Incomplete
Errors in Numerical
Approximations
Horizontal Resolution
Vertical Resolution
Time Integration Procedure
Boundary Conditions
Horizontal
Vertical
Terrain
Physical Processes

Example
of error
growth

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LOGO

Thank You !