-B- Canadian Dollar (180 min)

(b)
Last week (on 1/27/10) I was counting the move from the highs as an “impulsive” five wave down that
was completed. My concern for the count then was with the very first leg down. Those concerns
[2] ended up being justified as this move turned out being something different than an “impulse”….

(a)
This pattern has take the shape of a “complex” correction that ended with a “terminal” (c)-
[1] wave. What this means is that we can expect a 60-80% retrace from the recent lows that
could take the $CAD back to .9598.9689. A sideways/triangular congestion from here
would, on the other hand, be extremely BEARISH, because it would be an x-wave.

[4]

(w)

[3] -x-
(y)
-a-
[5]
(b)
(c)
-w-
[2]
(x)

I’m bearish this market but cannot have a position at this

[4]
moment. The best trading strategy might be to short in front -b-
of .96 on any rally or sell a break of .9326 (new lows)
(a)
[1]
[3]
[5]
(c)
-x- of a/w

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Canadian Dollar (180 min.)

(2) I’m not entirely comfortable with the five wave model here, mostly because of the initial wave
(1), which is easier to describe as a corrective move. If it’s not a “five” lower, then it’s definitely
a “complex correction,” which is in itself a strong move. The market appears to be running out
[2] of steam to the downside, so it appears we get some sideways/higher price action soon. I
would be a seller of any good bounce in the Canadian $.

(1) [.2]
[1]
[.1]

[.4]
[4]
Reprinted from 1/27/2010

[.3]

.9500
[.5] (4)
[3]

If this was a “five” lower, then the bounce to come

should not be able to take out the 61.8% at .9617. If
it was a “complex correction,” then the market will [5]
likely move to .9688. Aggressive shorts who don’t (3)
want to wait for a bounce, for risk of not seeing one,
should use .9500 as key chart resistance.

(5)
-a- or -1-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -B-
(Z)
(Y) “c”
Canadian Dollar (Daily) “c” 5
3

“a” 1

4
“a”
(W) 2
“c”

Reprinted from 1/27/2010 “b”

(X)
“b”

(X)

“a”
This looks a lot like a completed “Triple Zig-Zag” from March 9th lows that
ended with a terminal diagonal “c” wave in (Z). There is really only one flaw
with this model and that is in the “c” of (Y)--it’s a little too short in duration
relative to the “a” and “b” that preceded it. However, the rest of the pattern
“b” fits together so well that I’m going to ignore this discrepancy (the “c” may
have begun sooner and ended later than I realized).

3/9/2009

-A-
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 Dollar Index (180 minute)

I’ll be honest here: the price action in the DXY is very strange and confusing to me. -c-
Basically, every leg up and down since the 74.33 lows looks corrective in nature,
which is why I’m left with this model. Confidence is low. Neely has an axiom from
Mastering Elliott Wave: “When confusion is greatest, assume that you’re just in the
middle of a larger correction….”

(x)

-a-
78.81
w
78.45 (y)
-b-
(w)

In the meantime, we can fall back on other trading tools, like the basic 23.6% retrace and
the trend channel that’s in place. The view for several weeks now as been rightly bullish
with a target near 82.00. There is nothing in the price action that suggests anything
different. The 78.40 (23.6%) aligns quite well with prior resistance/support, so that seems
like a good level for medium term traders to place “stop loss strategies.” It’s also a level
that would probably align with the lower trend line, in case that gets tested.

74.33
“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Un-Orthodox” Patterns?
-g-?

-e-?

-c-? -f-?

-a-
w
78.45

-d-?

-b-

Whenever I start to see really strange price behavior that is difficult to explain, I
can’t help but think about some of Neely’s “new formations” called “diametrics”
(seven legged corrective patterns of similar duration.) It will be interesting to see
how this particular wave plays out….

74.33
“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -c-

Dollar Index (180 minute)

(b)
This looks corrective.

-a-
w 78.81
78.45
(c)
-b-

(a)

Reprinted from 2/1/2010

x

The DXY count is getting a bit strange now. The waves higher have mostly been “corrective”
in nature from the 74.33 lows. It’s been very difficult to count out any impulsive action. I
guess this should be expected for something that should be a “d”-wave. 81.70 remains a
very likely target for a conclusion to this wave (as highlighted on the first slide). The fact that
the waves higher are not impulsive should not discourage bulls. The DXY is clearly in an
uptrend channel at this point and the burden is now on the bears to prove otherwise.
74.33
“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (Daily) Wave “c” has ended and we’re are now in the middle of wave “d” of a
larger triangle. A good target for the “d” would be 81.70, which is
61.8% of the “b” wave. (As with most triangles, the alternating legs
will be related by a Fibonacci number.)
“b”
89.62

(A)
-b-

“d”
-a- 81.70
x

-b-
w/a

-c- -a- x
77.69 w -b-
“a” “e”
-c- x/b (B)
y -a-
Reprinted from 1/17/2010 74.33
-c-
z of “c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 British Pound (Daily) ~ A big Triangle?

(A)
“b”

“d”

“c”
1.5702 “e”
“a” “throw over?”
(B)

There’s only a couple of things that are apparent to me about the Sterling: a) It’s been the
most hated currency the world over for a long time now, so there are plenty of speculative
shorts in this market; b) this has the look of a triangle/pennant formation. So, those are
two reasons that lead me to conclude a major leg higher is a good probability. It would
take a break below 1.5702 in the near term to change this view.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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