Read any newspaper article with a scientifically critical eye.

What dont they tell you?

What assumptions are made?
What would they have you believe with no evidence?
Are there discrete conclusions or are you left to infer?
Tell the person next to you about it. - NOW.

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SYSTEM: A set of components that function together as one.

Feedback is the response of part of a system to change in or

information from another.
Positive feedback: tends to amplify the stimulus or change
Example- compound interest
Negative feedback: tends to reduce or dampen change
Example- friction

Positive Feedback
Negative Feedback

DAISYWORLD

Albedo: brightness of surface. Fraction of light reflected.

Water darkest, then forest, then grass, desert, ice.

A change in one part of the system affects the behavior of

other components within the system.
Diagnostic challenge
-Chicken and egg problem
Potential positive feedbacks
-Runaway change and collapse
Positive feedbacks may mask change
-Not observed until too late

Observation: woodland changed to grassland

Hypothesis: Cattle grazing and elephant damage killed trees

Masai grazing goats

Elephants
damage trees

Test Hypothesis
Is tree loss proportional to amount of grazing?
Number of elephants?
No.
So what other factors are there in the system?
Rainfall increased. Hmmm
Salt from lake bed soil rose to tree roots- killed trees
Elephants compounded the problem

Polar ice and temperature

-As ice melts, white is replaced by black water
-absorbs more sunlight
-increases temperature
-melts faster
(Opposite of Daisy-world)

Desertification of Sahara
-Sunlight was decreasing in intensity due to orbital changes
-Dark vegetation warmed region and kept moisture in system
-Eventually could not keep up with decreasing insolation
-Ecosystem collapsed

Positive feedbacks can become negative, keeping the

system within bounds.

Exponential growth if rate of increase is proportional to

present stock. (Like continuous compounding)
N(t)= Noekt
so if k=3%/yr and t=10 yrs, ekt = 2.70.3 = 1.35

Doubling Time Approximation

N(t)= Noekt

For N to be twice No (doubling), ekt = 2. Solve for t.

Take natural log of both sides
kt = ln(2) = 0.693 so t = ln(2)/k
If k (growth rate) is in percent, you multiply by 100, so
Doubling time t = 69.3/k = 70/k (easy to remember)

The present is the key to the past.

Processes observed now can explain past conditions.

The present is unique because it includes human perturbations

Uncontrolled experiment with local and global environment.
We have pushed parts of the system to levels not seen for
millions of years.
SO- perhaps the past is the key to understanding the future!

View that the history of the Earth is dominated by sudden

and sometimes devastating events.
Geologically, this view suggests that most of the rock
record preserved big events like floods or storms, rather
than every-day processes.
Environmentally, suggests that the system is controlled by
major disruptions, and prone to positive feedbacks.

Stock- The amount of something stored in a reservoir

Flux- The rate at which something enters or leaves reservoir
Equilibrium when input and output are balanced
Residence time- stock/flux
Lehigh
Beach sand
Conveyor belt
Earths radiation

Tropical forests
Fish
Lobsters?
Mineral ores

Ground water
CO2
People

Example- Water in a dammed reservoir

Residence time is volume/outflow
Time any dissolved pollutants (MTBE) remain
in lake is environmentally important
If pollutant decays faster than residence, output is clean
Damage limited to (concentrated in) reservoir
(Most pollutants DONT decay)
Evaporation further concentrates pollutants

Linear system- output change is proportional to input change

- spring
- twice fertilizer = twice growth
Nonlinear system- output amplifies or buffers input (feedbacks)
- glaciation
- vegetation and rainfall
Uncertainty- unpredictability of nonlinear systems
1. Removable cognitive: fixed by better measurements, etc.
2. Irremediable cognitive: cant improve because of nonlinearities
3. Voluntative: stemming from human decision-making
(See Pielke et al. on Blackboard)

From physics- the act of observation alters what is being observed

Feedback with uncertainty
Walk across crowded mall- Cannot plan route a priori
-people change paths in response to your presence

Earth system contains many nonlinearities and uncertainties.

Challenge:
Identify those aspects that are most sensitive to environmental
changes caused by natural and anthropogenic activities.
-Determine critical thresholds
-Monitor changing conditions
-Develop remediation measures.

Earth formed 4.6 b.y. ago - solar nebula

Major events in life correspond to major environmental changes
- photosynthesis:oxygen
- land plants:less CO2
- intelligence:many disruptions
Ecosystem: Community and its physical environment
Exist at all scales
Rely on internal interactions between components
Biogeochemical cycles and energy flow
Biosphere: Region where all life exists.

 Life affects its physical environment

Life has altered its planetary environment such that it persists
Life controls the global environment on purpose

Life makes Earth a self regulating system (Homeostasis)

-keeps surface temperature in liquid water
-negative feedbacks

DAISYWORLD
(Homeostatic system)

So if we know so much, why is it so hard to solve

environmental problems?
1. Positive feedbacks
2. Lag time - by the time you see the effect, it is too late to
alter the cause. (overshoot and collapse)
3. Reversible vs. irreversible impacts
4. Discount rates
5. Low probability, high impact events
- meteor
- major volcano, tsunami, etc.
- deadly epidemic