Bridging the Macro and the Micro: Integrating

Empirical Realities with Scenario Analysis

Elusiyan Eludoyin
Doctoral Researcher
UCL Energy Institute

Map

Aim

Concept

Holistic
Framework

Conclusion

Methodological
Approach

Aim
Policy for sustainable provision and adoption of modern energy
services.
Sustainability of the transition for different consumers, under
changing environments.
Nature of the transition
Suitability of policy mechanisms for given socio-economic conditions
Consumer and Supplier relations How Policy impacts?
Macro

Micro

Government/
Dev. Agency
Policy

Consumers
Investors

Modern Energy
Service
Suppliers

Concept
Transition (consumer)
Energy ladder, fuel stacking
Kowsari and Zerrifi 2011 three dimensional assessment (energy services)

Decision making (consumer)

Behavioural economics, technology adoption theory, social and environmental
psychology, sociology
Wilson et al 2007 various economical and non-economical factors

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Holistic transition

Beyond financial necessities
Stakeholder engagement and nature, linked to underlying goals (sustainability).
Households, livelihoods; SMEs/public institutions, avoided costs/value
addition
Suppliers, organisational objective (profit, not-for profit)

Framework
CONDITIONS
Economy
Energy Resources
Industrialization
Sovereignty
Political stability,
Transparency

service
CONSUMERS

TRANSITION
INVESTORS

SUPPLIERS
demand

Type of investment
Contractual terms
Partnerships

MARKET
ENVIRONMENT
Resource selection
Liquidity
Regulation
Technology
Wider sector
structure

Approach Scenario Analysis

AHP

Consumer
Choices

Consumer
Choices

Supplier
choices

Supplier
choices
LEAP

Market
Environment

Base year

Consumer
Choices

Supplier
choices
LEAP

Market
Environment

5 years

LEAP

Market
Environment

10 years

1. Reference Scenario Current trends

2. Existing Commitments Broad policy commitments and plans
3. Renewable Energy Scenario Explorative; competitiveness of renewable energy

Scenario End
20 years

AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process

Consumers (e.g.
household)

-Necessary livelihood needs (livelihood

capitals)
-Linked to Exogenous factors
Exogenous factors based on relevant policy criteria
Supply-side Policy Criteria
Financing mechanism (access to credit)
Subsidy level (direct funding support)
Cost of tech components (Tax incentives)
Finance/Funding channels (REA, MFI)
Technical capacity (development agency policy)
Previous Level of Demand (based on LEAP output)

Suppliers

Demand-side Policy Criteria

Financing mechanism (access to credit)
Other Welfare needs (policy alignment)
Service Type from Producers (based on supplier AHP
analysis)

-Necessary operational measures

(sustainability factors)
-Linked to exogenous factors

Conclusion
Limitations
Dependent on assumptions (iteration process, market picture)
Participant understanding of questions
Secondary data availability

Willing practitioners
To provide knowledge on the suitability of certain policy actions on
country and local dynamics.

Thank you for your attention

Questions and Comments please