QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES

Business
Management of Projects

What is a project?
Deadline
Management

Manage to
Plan

Costs of Project
Failure
Standish Group survey of US IT Systems Projects:
17%

Met Target

50%

Had to have targets changed

33%

Cancelled

Cost to US Companies $80 Billion/Year

Separating Objectives

Project Objectives - the deliverable

Project Management Objectives
Execution Costs/Time/Quality

Project Scoping
What do you want to do? - Understand the deliverable
How do you want to do it? Project Planning Assumptions

Project Planning

Work Breakdown Structure

Resource Estimation
Logical Dependencies
Project Scheduling

CPA, Critical Path Analysis

PERT, Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique

Output - Gantt Charts & Resource

Histograms

WBS Level Names

Program
Project
Task
Sub Task
Work Package
Activity

Work Breakdown
Structures

www.picassodlcf..com.uk/lecture

2.995m Municipal Truck

Specification Changes:
Crew cab

Interior Trim
Rear Seats
Wide Access

Controls

Change Speed

Engine

9 gm NoX

Brakes

ABS

Chassis

Framesides/Xmbr
Springs & Dampers

WBS Task Level

100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600

Concept Investigation
Concept Approval D2
Programme Definition
Programme Approval D4
Engineering Release Stage IV
Methods Review
Build/Sign off Mock-up
Prototype Build
Test/Development
Stage V Sign off
Procure pre-prod materials
Sample Approval
Pre-Production build
Issue material to lineside
Proof build
Job 1

WBS Sub Task

500

Engineering Stage IV Release

510 Change Speed
520
Engine
530
Chassis
540
Interior Trim
141
142
143
144

LHS Side Trim

RHS Side Trim
Rear Seat
LHS Door Step Kicker Plate

General Aspects of WBS

WBS does not show the sequence of
work
Dont plan in more detail than you can
manage.
Task Duration should be linked to the
review period
In Industrial NPD Engineering and
programming sub-tasks should have
duration's no greater than one to
three weeks.

Estimating Resources
An exact estimate is impossible
The more experience there is of an
activity the easier it is to estimate.
If people are punished for failure they
will pad estimates.
Project
estimating assumes 50%
probability estimates are used unless
specified otherwise.

X
Time
Estimate 3

Estimate 3
Estimate 4

XX
XX

X
X X

Estimate 5

Estimate 1
Estimate 2

Situation A

Estimate 4

Estimate 2

Estimate 1

Consensual
Estimating

Time

Situation B

Logical
Dependencies
Start/Start

1000 Stage IV Releases

1100 Procure Pre-prod material

Start/Finish

100 Concept Investigation

200 Concept Approval

Finish/Finish

1100 Procure Pre-prod material

1200 Sample Approval

Activity Network
(Activity on Node)

100

200

300

400

500

700

800

900

1100

1200

1300

600

1000

1400

1500

1600

Programme Evaluation & Review

Technique - PERT
Probability

Days Early

Days Late

Distribution of activity times

PERT
for a Task

a = optimistic duration
b = likely duration
c = pessimistic duration

Expected Time = a + 4 x b + c
6

PERT
for a Project:
Expected Project Duration is the sum of the expected
durations of the activities on the critical path.

for an activity:
The standard deviation = a - c
6

for a Project:
Standard deviation = s12+s22+s32.

Gantt Chart

Resource Histogram

Schedule Computations
(fixing the plan to a point in time)

Forward Scheduling
Backward Scheduling
Resource Constraining

Shortening the Project

Add Resource
Reduce Scope (or eliminate scope
creep)
Change Process
Look for activities that can be done in
parallel
Reduce Quality

Project Managers Desk Reference J P Lewis

Effect of Slippage
Critical
Bottleneck
Float
Slip

Critical Chain Theory

things are more likely to go wrong than get better!

Critical
Bottleneck
Float
Buffer

Eli Goldratt Critical Chain

Project Deliverable
Review

Design

Does it Work?
Can we make it?
Is it still viable?

Risk

Project Management
Review
Current Project Status
Future Status
Status of Critical Tasks
Risk Assessment
Information Relevant to other
Projects
Limitations of Review

Project Team Review

Leadership
Decision Making
Problem Solving
Communications
Meetings
Planning
Giving Feedback to Team
Members
Conflict Management

Final Messages
Project management challenge
increases with number of
communication interfaces
Estimating is difficult
Software tools help to establish an
achievable plan beware GIGO
Plan to Manage Manage the Plan

Appendix 1 1/2

Causes of Perceived Project Failure

Insufficient use of project/status reports

Use of superficial status reports
Inadequate project management, administrative,
human & technical skills
Insufficient project manager influence and authority
Poor co-ordination with client
Lack of rapport with client/parent organisation
Client disinterest in budget criteria
Lack of project team participation in decision
making/Problem solving
Excessive structure within project team
Job insecurity within project team
Lack of team spirit and sense of mission within
project team

Appendix 1 2/2

Causes of Perceived Project Failure

Parent organisation stable, non dynamic, lacking strategic
change
Poor co-ordination with parent organisation
New type of project
Project more complex than parent handled previously
Initial underfunding/under resourcing
Inability to freeze design early
Inability to close out effort
Unrealistic project schedules
Inadequate change procedures

Appendix 2

Review Questions

Problem not clearly defined

Planning based on insufficient data
Planning just performed by planning group
No one is in charge
Project estimates are best guesses,made without
consulting historic data
Resource planning is inadequate
Project dont see them selves working as one team
People are constantly pulled off project or reassigned
with no regard for impact
The project plan lacks detail
The project is not tracked to plan
People loose sight of the original goal
Senior managers refuse to accept reality
Ballpark estimates become official targets

CASE STUDY

North West Rail Link

The North West Rail Link is a priority

rail
infrastructure
project
for
the
NSW
Government. Planning is well underway on the
23km rail link to Sydney's growing North West
region.
Eight new railway stations are proposed at:
Cherrybrook, Castle Hill, Hills Centre, Norwest, Bella
Vista, Kellyville, Rouse Hill and Cudgegong Road.
Also planned are 4,000 commuter car parking
spaces.

The North West Rail Link will deliver savings of up to 3 hours a week
in journey times to the Sydney CBD as well as frequent,
reliable, direct rail services between the North West and Macquarie Park,
Chatswood, North Sydney and the city. The rail link includes 15km of
tunnels between Bella Vista and Epping - the longest and deepest rail
tunnels ever built in Australia.
InfraSol Group was appointed by Transport for NSW in May 2011 to
work as part of their inhouse project management team to deliver the
following Services for the Business Case Stage of the $9 Billion project.

CASE STUDY
The National Gallery of Australia,
Canberra - Stage 1 Extensions
A $100 million Stage 1 Extension to the National
Gallery of Australia was under construction on site
while the design was still being completed.

One of the main sources of concern for the building

committee, in charge of the delivery of the
extensions to the existing National Gallery of
Australia(NGA) building, was the lack of finalisation of
the architectural and engineering designs whilst at
the same time construction had already commenced.
InfraSol Group was engaged by the NGA to help them
overcome the following challenges in taking the
project to completion:

Provide strong Project Leadership through the

Project Director role
Undertake a Quantitative Risk Assessment of the
project
Effectively Managing design to completion
Implement a Testing and Commissioning
Management process for the Building Services

1. Project Leadership
The InfraSol Group principal, John Barrow, was
brought in to resolve the problems with the
project delivery.
John tackled the problem head on by doing the
following:
Meeting with the building committee

Meeting with the construction management team

Meeting with the key design consultant

With the benefit of the above background John

was able to prepare a project review
report which was presented to the building
committee which resulted in the following
recommendations being adopted to get the
project on track:
Install John as project director to over see the project and
report to the building committee
Implement managing of the design
Arrange for a quantitative risk assessment of the project
in terms of cost and time
Arrange for weekly meetings with the construction manager
and his team along with regular design meeting

The
result
of
InfraSol
Group's
project
leadership was the successful delivery of the
project to meet the construction programme and to
the required quality and completeness.

2. Quantitative Risk Assessment

The InfraSol Group Risk Manager, Grant
Hookway, was brought in to undertake a
Quantitative Risk Assessment for the project.
Grant
arranged
and
facilitated
two
risk workshops which included all the relevant
stakeholders and project team members. As a result
of the workshops, Grant was able to identify a
number of key risks on the project as follows:

Cost to complete
Time to complete

--- Risk Management