ESCENARIO DE

INVERSIN DEL MERCADO DE

ENERGA RENOVABLE
SIBER 2013
MDULO 5: INVERSIN Y FINANCIAMIENTO

LILIAN ALVES, BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

20 SEPTIEMBRE 2013

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Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

CONTENIDO

1. Inversiones Mundiales en Energa Renovable

2. Amrica Latina Nueva Frontera para Inversiones

3. Financiacin de Proyectos: Desafios
4. Nuevos Mecanismos de Inversin

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

ABOUT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

200 staff in 13 offices worldwide
Objective: serve clients with the best intelligence on finance, technology and policy developments
in clean energy, energy efficiency and carbon markets

London
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Hong Kong
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Sao Paulo
Cape Town

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

Sydney

ENERGY INDUSTRY RESEARCH, FROM ALL ANGLES

SIX CORE RESEARCH AREAS ACROSS EACH SECTOR
POLICY

SECTOR ECONOMICS

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Tariffs and support mechanisms

Impact of regulatory changes
Upcoming regulation pipeline

Market sizing
Margins, project returns
Industry structure / consolidation

FINANCE

SUPPLY CHAIN

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Capital sources and availability

Asset prices and M&A activity
Project financing models

Production capacity
Pricing along the value chain
Bottlenecks/oversupply

ENERGY MARKETS

TECHNOLOGY

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Demand forecasts
Power prices
Integration with electricity issues

Understanding technology choices

Tracking adoption/advancements
Commercialisation/scaling

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY,

2006-2012 ($BN)
49%

37%

-3%

16%

23%

-13%

274
238
224

168

163

2008

2009

146

97

2006

2007

2010

2011

2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT BY COUNTRY TYPE

200412 ($BN)
3%

7%

5%

6%

17%

20%

22%

7%

6%

6%

6%

25%

27%

26%

27%

9%

14%

35%

ROW
BASIC
OECD

84%
77%

74%

73%

68%

66%

68%

67%
57%

2004

2005

2006

Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

CONTENIDO

1. Inversiones Mundiales en Energa Renovable

2. Amrica Latina Nueva Frontera para Inversiones

3. Financiacin de Proyectos: Desafios
4. Nuevos Mecanismos de Inversin

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN TOTAL NEW FINANCIAL

INVESTMENTS BY SECTOR, 2006-2013 ($M)
15,897

13,471
11,747

11,188

10,812

10,295

5,415

2,811

2006

2007

Biofuels

Wind

2008

2009

Small Hydro

Note: Does not include Merges & Acquisitions and Public Markets

2010

2011

Biomass & Waste

Solar

2012

H1 2013

Geothermal
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN TOTAL NEW FINANCIAL

INVESTMENTS BY COUNTRY, 2006-2013 ($M)
15,897

13,471
11,747
11,188

10,812

10,295

5,415

2,811

2006

2007
Brazil

Mexico

2008
Chile

2009
Argentina

2010
Peru

2011
Uruguay

2012

H1 2013

Rest of LAC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

LATIN AMERICA TOTAL NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS IN CLEAN

ENERGY BY COUNTRY, 2012 ($M)

Brazil

5,171

Mexico

1,999

-37%
595%

Chile

1,018

313%

Peru

643

176%

Argentina

270

Nicaragua

202

63%
24%

Panama

137

5%

Ecuador

132

42%

Uruguay

105

285%

Venezuela

77

9%

Honduras

33

-37%

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

10

CONTENIDO

1. Inversiones Mundiales en Energa Renovable

2. Amrica Latina Nueva Frontera para Inversiones

3. Financiacin de Proyectos: Desafios
4. Nuevos Mecanismos de Inversin

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

11

FINANCING SOME OF THE CHALLENGES

Time to secure financing

PPA difficulty to find bilateral long-term contracts

Currency risk

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

12

LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ASSET FINANCE

LEAGUE TABLE (LEAD ARRANGERS), 2006 - H1 2013
Rank Company Name
1 Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social
2 Inter-American Development Bank
3 Banco do Nordeste do Brasil
4 Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais
5 Rabobank
6 Overseas Private Investment Corp
7 World Bank Group
8 Superintendencia do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste
9 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA
10 Central American Bank for Economic Integration
11 Banobras
12 Export-Import Bank of the Republic of China
13 Banco Santander SA
14 Export-Import Bank of the United States
15 Caixa Economica Federal
16 Credit Agricole Groupe
17 Banco do Brasil SA
18 Eksport Kredit Fonden - EKF
19 Banco Espirito Santo SA
20 European Investment Bank

# of Deals

Credit ($m)
211
21
15
3
4
4
12
8
9
13
6
1
6
4
3
7
7
4
5
4

16,707.60
1,030.95
797.57
695.30
578.95
573.01
525.83
465.35
376.97
328.21
323.19
313.00
295.71
293.05
286.49
282.02
274.75
250.60
229.40
209.50

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

13

CONTENIDO

1. Inversiones Mundiales en Energa Renovable

2. Amrica Latina Nueva Frontera para Inversiones

3. Financiacin de Proyectos: Desafios
4. Nuevos Mecanismos de Inversin

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

14

GREEN BOND (NARROW DEFINITION) ISSUANCE OVER

TIME ($BN)
8
Other

7
6

QECB

5
4

CREB

3
Supranational/
international

2
1

Project bonds

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Other includes international
government or municipal debt. QECB stands for Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds,
CREB stands for Clean Renewable Energy Bonds. 'Narrow definition' refers to the fact
that we are restricting this view of the bond universe to include just the bond types
shown above, and excluding corporate issues.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

15

COUPONS AND OFFERING SIZE FOR CLEAN ENERGY

PROJECT BOND ISSUANCES, 2011-PRESENT
Coupon (%)
9.0
8.0
7.0

Baldwin,
NAIC 2

Desert Sunlight
(U), BBB-

Arlington Valley II,

BBB- (implied)

Granite Reliable
Power, BB

Topaz,
BBB-

6.0
Genesis (U), A-

L'Erable,
NR

5.0
4.0

Oaxaca IV, BBBOaxaca II, BBB-

Mount
Signal, NR Comber , Ave rate f or
new issues
St Clair,
BBB
(US util)*
BBB

Desert
Sunlight
(G), AAA

Genesis
(G), AAA

3.0

Solar Power
Generation Ltd, NR

Granite Reliable
Power, AAA

2.0

Ave rate f or
new issues
(EU util)*

1.0

Westmill Solar
Cooperative, NR

Olkaria, NR

0.0

Jan 11

Apr 11
Geothermal

Jul 11

Oct 11

Solar thermal

Feb 12
PV

May 12
Wind

Aug 12

Dec 12

Mar 13

$100m

Notes: (*) Average coupons for new bonds issued by utilities with maturities of 18-28years since January 2011. This
tenor range is +/- 5yrs from the average tenor (23 years) of the clean energy project bonds included in the chart. For
DOE loan guarantee projects: (G)- tranche is guaranteed by the DOE (U)- tranche is unguaranteed by DOE. The two
Oaxaca bonds appear as one bubble as they share the same coupon rate and were nearly the same issuance size.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Olkaria & Westmill coupons unknown.

/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

16

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/ / / / Escenario de Inversin del Mercado de Energa Renovable 20 Septiembre 2013

17

ESCENARIO DE INVERSIN DEL

MERCADO DE ENERGA RENOVABLE
LILIAN ALVES, LCLEA5@BLOOMBERG.NET
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