Introduction to hypothesis

testing
Chapter 8
The goal of research
Test hypotheses
Hypothesis = prediction
Involves difference between distinct groups
Children who watch violent television are more
violent than children who do not watch violent
television
Involves association between quantitative
variables
The more spinach people eat, the longer they
live
Alternative possibilities
The hypothesis may be correct
The hypothesis may be incorrect
The null hypothesis is correct nothing is
going on; groups are not different,
variables are not related
The logic of hypothesis testing
Much like the logic of the judicial
system
Start out thinking that nothing is going
on the null hypothesis is presumed
correct, the defendant is presumed
innocent
Only reject this idea if there is a
preponderance of evidence against it
Another example
Flipping a coin with a friend is it a fair
coin?
Null hypothesis = nothing is going on
it is a fair coin
Alternative hypothesis = something is
going on its not a fair coin
One or the other of these has to be
true
Steps of logic
Initially assume the null hypothesis is
true
Assume it is a fair coin
Collect some data
How likely is it to see this pattern, if the
coin was fair?
If its unlikely enough, youll need to
reject the assumption that the coin is fair
How unlikely is unlikely
enough?
Defined by alpha level, or level of
significance
= how unlikely it has to be to see what
youre seeing, if the null hypothesis
was true in order to reject the null
hypothesis
Danger with making this too low?
Danger with making this too high?
Alpha
Conventionally set at .05
if outcome you see would happen
less than 5% of the time if the null
hypothesis were true, reject the null
hypothesis
Likelihood of outcomes?
Can get from unit normal distribution
Tells about getting samples with means that
are different distances from the mean of the
population
if the null hypothesis were true, the mean
of the population would be X
Can then figure out how likely it would be to
get a sample with a mean of Y if the mean of
the population was X
A soap example
Are the children?
Null hypothesis?
If the null were true, what should the height
of the kids (once they are fully grown) be?
(assume height just comes from your side of
the family)
compare the mean height of your children
(sample) to what the mean height of the
population they are from would be, if the null
were true
Dividing the unit normal curve
Unit normal curve here captures what the
world would look like if the null hypothesis
were true
Would have variability from sample to sample,
but would be unlikely to get strange weird
samples
How far from the mean of the population
would the mean of the sample have to be so
youd only get that weird of a sample 5% of
the time?
Remember, sample could be weird by being tall or
weird by being short
Names of the regions
Region of acceptance = region where
the non-weird samples are
If the null hypothesis were true, it wouldnt
be surprising to get samples like this
if you get samples like this, theres no
reason to think that the null hypothesis is
not true
Names of regions
Critical region or region of rejection =
area with the weird samples
If the null hypothesis was true, it would be
surprising and unusual to get samples like
this
Itd be so surprising and unusual that youd
conclude the null hypothesis is not true
youd reject the null hypothesis
Practicing this with numbers
Mean height of population?
Standard deviation of population?
Number of children?
Standard error of the mean?
Critical region?
Mean height of children?
Conclusion?
The bottom line of hypothesis
testing
Assume the null hypothesis is true
Determine the critical region of the unit normal
curve
Collect data
If the data fall in the critical region, reject the
null hypothesis
If this happens, the z-score with your data is
more extreme than the critical z-score
i.e., your sample is weirder than the critical
weirdness level
Result is called statistically significant
Another way to think of it all
Could compare weirdness of your sample to critical
weirdness
Could also compare likelihood of getting your sample to
critical likelihood
Can determine likelihood of getting a sample as odd as
yours, just by chance if the null is true
Referred to as p value
if p < alpha, result is statistically significant
Alpha conventionally = .05
if p < .05, result is statistically significant
Stranger sample = less likely to get by chance if null is
true
more extreme z-score = smaller p
Weird in one direction, or
weird in any way?
Weird in any way = hypothesis that
something is going on
critical region covers both sides of the
distribution
non-directional, or two-tailed, test
Weird in one direction = hypothesis that
something in a particular direction is going
on
critical region covers just one side of the
distribution
directional, or one-tailed, test
Being wrong and being right
You never know if your conclusion is correct
You only have access to data from the sample, not
the entire population
Your conclusion is right if:
The null hypothesis is true, and you think its true
The null hypothesis is not true, and you think its not true
Your conclusion is wrong if:
The null hypothesis is true, and you think its false (type 1
error)
The null hypothesis is false, and you think its true (type 2
error)
Thinking about errors
Alpha = Acceptable likelihood of making a
type 1 error
Type 2 error may arise if something is going
on, but:
Not much difference between groups
Small sample size ( large standard error of the
mean z-scores will be small)
Large standard deviation in population ( large
standard error of the mean z-scores will be
small)
How much difference between
groups?
Z-score of sample captures how much the
sample stands out from what the mean of the
population would be if the null hypothesis
was true
Tells about difference between means, taking
into account variability from sample to
sample
can get a large z-score (and a small p) if
the sample size is large enough
How to measure how much
difference between groups?
Need a measure that does not take sample
size into account
effect size = how much of something is
going on?
Common measure = Cohens d
Difference between mean of what population
would be if the null was true and mean of the
sample, divided by the standard deviation
not affected by sample size
gives better measure of how much of
something is going on
What if effect size is very
small?
Need to be able to say that a small
difference is unusual enough to find, if
the null hypothesis is true, to be able to
reject the null
need big sample
need small standard deviation
helps to have directional hypothesis
Power
Probability of being able to detect a
particular effect size
If the effect size were X and the
research hypothesis were true, power =
proportion of samples that would let
you reject the null hypothesis
Be sure to
Review new vocabulary
Review logic
Review steps of hypothesis testing
This is the most important chapter in
this entire class
This logic underlies all of hypothesis
testing