ENVIRONMENTAL

STEWARDSHIP
Class 3.5 - Climate Change Models
10/25/2014 1
Housekeeping

Module 2/3 project due this Thursday

Pond activityhopefully, April 9

Exam April 11 (a week from Thursday)

Dueling Desserts --April 28
th
(Sunday, 7 p.m.)

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Misinformation

The trouble with most folks isnt so much
their ignorance, but in knowing so many
things that aint so.
Josh Billings
19
th
century humorist
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What organizations study climate?
KNOW THESE:

NOAANational Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration

IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NASNational Academy of Sciences
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Is the Globe Warming?
NOAA State of the Climate Report 2009
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What science is used to study climate?
We learned about indicators of global warming last class.
But how are those measures taken?
And how do scientists know temperatures from the past?
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What science is used to study climate?
Satellites Atmospheric temperatures
dating back to 1979.
Instrumental Records Thermometer
readings from world-wide global
stations dating back to England in the
late 17
th
century.
Proxy Sources - Natural recorders of
climate variability such as tree rings,
ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean
sediments, corals and historical data
dating far back in time.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/primer_study.html
Satellites
These measurements appeared to
indicate that warming was less rapid
than other data suggested.
A correction has been made for a long-
term change in the timing of satellite
measurements.
Research now shows closer
agreement between satellite and
ground-based data.

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Satellite measurements are used to reconstruct global
atmospheric temperatures (vertical temperatures).
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/
Instrumental Records
A set of temperature records from over 7,000 stations around the world has
been compiled by the NOAA National Climate Data Center to create the
Global Historical Climatology Network GHCN
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Two research programs used the data
to reconstruct global temperature
trends from the late 1800's
Both use the same data, but the
records contain some differences due
to different approaches to:
Spatial averaging
The use and treatment of sea surface
temperature data,
The handling of the influence of
changes in land-cover.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/animation/cru_annual_av.html
Lesson

Lesson here even data from instruments require
modeling and assumptions

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Instrumental Records
Clouds
http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/clouds


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Proxies: Tree Rings
Tree Ring Video

Tree-rings global temperatures diverge from temperature
after 1960.
Tree-ring proxy reconstructions are reliable before 1960, tracking
closely with the instrumental record and other independent proxies.
The divergence problem is a physical phenomenon:
Tree growth has slowed or declined in the last few decades (mostly
in the northern hemisphere).
The cause is likely to be a combination of local and global factors
such as warming-induced drought and global dimming.

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Proxies: Coral
Corals build their hard skeletons from calcium carbonate,
a mineral extracted from sea water.
The carbonate contains isotopes of oxygen, as well as
trace metals, that can be used to determine the
temperature of the water in which the coral grew.
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Proxies: Fossil Pollen
All flowering plants produce pollen grains. Their distinctive
shapes can be used to identify the type of plant from
which they came.
Since pollen grains are well preserved in the sediment
layers, an analysis of the pollen grains in each layer tell
us what kinds of plants were growing at the time the
sediment was deposited.
Inferences can then be made about the climate based on
the types of plants found in each layer.
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Proxies: Ocean & Lake Sediments
Billions of tons of sediment accumulate in the ocean and
lake basins each year. Scientist drill cores of sediment
from the basin floors.
Ocean and lake sediments include tiny fossils and
chemicals that are used to interpret past climates
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Proxies: Ice Cores
Ice Core Video
Located high in mountains and in polar ice caps, ice has
accumulated from snowfall over many millenia.
Scientists drill through the deep ice to collect ice cores.
These cores contain dust, air bubbles, or isotopes of
oxygen, that can be used to interpret the past climate of
that area.
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Climate Models
Computer models of the climate system are used to better
understand how the climate system works (cause and
effect) and to predict its future evolution.

Who makes computer models?
How do they work?
Where can I learn more?


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http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
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Horizontal Grid
(Latitude-Longitude)
Climate models use worlds fastest supercomputers but
need computers that are 1000 times faster (at least!).
Vertical Grid
(Height or Pressure)
The earths land, ocean, and atmosphere are divided
into 5 million grid cells.
1950-2000 trends in observed v. simulated precipitation

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(Atmosphere model forced with
observed SSTs 1950-2000)
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Simulated rainfall changes Modeled AMO Index
Observed rainfall changes
Observed AMO Index
Confidence in Models
Based on physical laws


Ability of models to simulate important aspects of current
climate


Able to reproduce features of past climates
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Problems with models

Cloudsleads to uncertainty in magnitude and timing of
events

ENSO

Precipitation

Harder time with small scale features
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Forcing Factors

Forcing=pushing the balance away from the
normal state
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Radiative Forcing

Radiative forcing: measure of how the energy balance of
the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when the
factors that affect climate are altered

Balance between the incoming solar radiation and
outgoing infrared radiation

Quantified as rate of energy change per unit area of the
globe ; expressed in Watts per square meter



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Radiative Forcing


Positive forcing: NRG in Earths atmosphere system
increasing; leads to warming

Negative forcing: NRG decreasing; leads to cooling
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Forcing Factors
External Forcing Factors:

Natural

Volcanoes
Solar Variations

Human Induced:
Changes in atmospheric composition

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Forcing Factors
Sun Spot Activity
Sunspots are regions of the solar surface that are darker
and cooler than their surroundings, caused by fluctuations
in the intense magnetic field cycle.
Intense sunspot activity brings with it solar storms, events
where charged particles stream off the surface of the sun,
affecting the suns irradiance.
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News Article: http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2006/03/3086.ars
http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/segwayed/lessons/sunspots/
Solar Radiation
29
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sage/meteorology/lesson1/activities.html
Forcing Factors
Water Vapor & Clouds
There are both positive and negative feedback loops between
Clouds and Global Temperatures.
Water Vapor is the most difficult factor to account for in climate
models.

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Video: From All Sides, Now
Recall: Feedback Loops
In the climate system a "feedback loop" refers to a pattern
of interacting processes where a change in one variable:
Either reinforces the original process (positive feedback)
Or suppresses the process (negative feedback)






In order to model and predict climate variability correctly,
feedback loops must be understood.
31
Forcing Factors
Between 1750 and 2005,
radiative forcing of the
climate by human
activities was over 5x that
of natural processes.

So why doesnt the
general public believe we
are causing the earth to
warm?
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Kids politics radio


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Do you think human activity is a significant contributing
factor in changing mean global temperatures?

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Climate Change Myths


http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

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Climate Change Controversies
What scientists think:
The earth is warming
Human activities are changing
climate

Read more:
Understanding and Responding
to Climate Change (2008 ed.) by
The National Academies
2009 State of the Climate Report
by NOAA
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So whats the problem?
How to interpret differences among scientists in context of
the process of science
Some Questions:
What are differences among scientists?
How can you tell what scientists think?
Why do they change their minds?
How can you tell what the best science is?
Peer reviewed literature
Statements from scientific groups
Presentation by the Media:
Experts (and NOT)
Balanced reporting vs. accurate representations

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Climatologist Video
ENVIRONMENTAL
STEWARDSHIP
Climate Change Outcomes
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there is now strong evidence that
significant global warming is occurring.

It is likely that most of the warming in
recent decades can be attributed to
human activities This warming has
already led to changes in the Earth's
climate
2005 statement signed by the National academies of
science of 11 countries. Similar statements have been
signed by 13 NAS in 2007, 2008, 2009.
Outcomes
What has occurred in our environment that can be
attributed to human activity? What can we expect for the
future?
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http://www.sott.net/articles/show/213345-Daily-Death-Toll-at-700-in-Russian-Heat-Wave
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/08/russian-heatwave-worst-1000-years.php
Smog in Moscow
Russian heat wave of 2010
Heat Waves
Droughts & Floods
Wet places will get wetter, dry places drier.
The warmer atmosphere is able to move water around much
more effectively. It pulls it out of the dry areas and it dumps it into
the wet areas much more efficiently.
Tropical agriculture will suffer declining yields at once, as many
crops are already near the top of their sustainable temperature
ranges. At the same time, the worlds population will grow from an
estimated 6.6 billion today to 9 billion or more by mid-centurywith
a large portion of the growth occurring in tropical countries.

Species Extinction
Phenology study of seasonal
plant/animal life cycle events
Birds migrate sooner if their food is no
longer available. Change in when the first
individual appears in the spring.
Some species nest or migrate based on
number of light hours, but their food
might emerge based on temperature. If
these timings are different, we will expect
population declines because of foraging or
nesting difficulties.
Another example is if plants emerge and
need to be pollinated before the
pollinators hatch.

Species Extinction
Vulnerability to disease:
Amphibians, stressed by climate change, more vulnerable to fungus
spreading worldwide
The International Union for the Conservation of Nature lists 208
species as "possibly extinct", more than half of which are
amphibians.
Webbed-footed coqui: Large black frog living in mountain streams
Domain: East and west Puerto Rico; Population: Not seen since 1976
Main threats: Disease (chytridiomycosis), climate change and invasive
predators
Golden coqui frog: Small orange frog living in forest or open rocky
areas
Domain: Sierra de Cayey, Puerto Rico; Population: No sightings since 1981
Main threats: Unknown but suspected habitat destruction, climate
change, disease (chytridiomycosis) and invasive predators


Forests
Urban spread and extensive ranching has lend to
deforestation around the globe.
Changes in global climate are stressing forests through
higher mean annual temperatures, altered precipitation
patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events.
Forests trap and store carbon dioxide, playing a major
role in mitigating climate change. But, when destroyed or
over-harvested and burned, forests can become sources
of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.

Oceans
Rising sea temperatures:
Influence the distribution of marine species and timing of the
cycles of life.
Also partly responsible for the phenomenon of coral bleaching,
devastating large areas of the worlds coral reefs.
Ocean acidification:
Threatens all marine animals and plants that secrete calcium
carbonate as part of their structure.
Direct Impacts:
Unsustainable fishing practices: previously abundant fisheries
can now produce only a fraction of the food yielded in the past.
Oil extraction and water pollution: devastating effects on marine
life and are transferred up the food chain to impact directly on
human health
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Melting of Permafrost


http://ine.uaf.edu/werc/people/katey-walter-
anthony/videos/

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Glaciers
Global Warming is melting glaciers in every region of the
world, putting millions of people at risk from floods,
droughts and lack of drinking water.

NATURE AT RISK
Royal Bengal tiger endangered tigers that will lose a
large portion of their worldwide habitat as the Sundarbans
succumb to sea level rise.
Kittlitzs murrelet rare birds specialized to hunt in
cloudy glacier water and nest on top of ice.
Coral reefs unique organisms that can be starved of
energy from the sun when sea levels rise.
http://assets.panda.org/downloads/glacierspaper.pdf
Glaciers
Global Warming is melting glaciers in every region of the world,
putting millions of people at risk from floods, droughts and lack of
drinking water.

REGIONS AT RISK
Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia where shrinking glaciers supply
water year-round, and are often the sole source of water for
major cities during dry seasons.
The Himalayas where the danger of catastrophic flooding is
severe, and glacier-fed rivers supply water to one third of the
worlds population.
Small island nations such as Tuvalu and some of the
Solomon Islands where sea level rise is submerging low-lying
land and saltwater is inundating vital groundwater reserves.

http://assets.panda.org/downloads/glacierspaper.pdf
Glacier Melting
www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/lemke/geol370/lectures/04_mass_balance.html

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Sea Level Rise
Sea levels not only rise because of glacier melting, but from
water expansion due to increased temperatures.
Bangladesh, one of the poorest nations in the world, is
projected to lose 17.5 percent of its land if sea level rises about
1 meter (39 inches), displacing millions of people.






Even the US could be affected by sea level rise:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12119714
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The Economy
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Many of the worlds poorest
people, who lack the resources
to respond to the impacts of
climate change, are likely
to suffer the most.

Joint science academies statement