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Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and mass casualty incident management. Understand the principles and practice of disaster management / MCI. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
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Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and mass casualty incident management. Understand the principles and practice of disaster management / MCI. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and mass casualty incident management. Understand the principles and practice of disaster management / MCI. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
Planning Nik Ahmad Shaiffudin Bin Nik Him MMC: 35241 MD, MMed (Emerg.Medicine, USM), AM(Mal) nikshaiffudin@unisza.edu.my
Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and mass casualty incident management
Subject contents (Disaster management I): Risk analysis and contingency plan
Performance criteria : Discuss the principles of risks analysis and contingency plan Perform disaster/ MCI risk analysis Objective
1. Understand the principles & practice of disaster management/ MCI following the national disaster response framework / NSC Directive 20. 2. Able to perform risk analysis for disaster/ MCI
Require risk information ....... for Analysis & Communication..... and Risk Management
Introduction
TYPES OF DISASTER/MCI 1. NATURAL DISASTERS 2. TECHNOLOGY & HUMAN CAUSED (MAN-MADE) 3. HYBRID OR MIXED
The Risk... Term & Definition Stakeholders The Guidance e.g Framework for Action
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation 2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning 3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels 4. Manage the underlying risk factors 5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels
Disaster Risk Management Disaster Risk Management Risk Analysis 1.Hazard Identification 2.Hazard Assessment 3.Elements at risk/ Exposure 4.Vulnerability Assessment 5.Risk Estimation Risk Governance Framework The aim of Risk governance is to involve the various stakeholders within all aspects of risk management. Risk communication is central.
The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework ( Source: IRGC, 2006) Risk communication who (Source)
says what (Message)
via what medium (Channel)
to whom (Receiver)
and directed at what kind of change (Effect). Predecisional processes Environmental cues Social context Information sources Information channels Message content Receiver characteristics Risk identification: Is there a real threat I need to pay attention to? Risk assessment: Do I need to take protective action? Protective action search: What can be done to achieve protection? Protective action assessment: What is the best method of protection? Protective action implementation: Does protection action need to be taken now? Information needs assessment: What information do I need? Communication action assessment: Where and how can I obtain this information? Communication action implementation: Do I need the information now? Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general public. e.g Risk communication: Netherlands
Information and communication Risk visualization 1. Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality, or neighbourhood) 2. Risk curves 3. Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area 4. WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of information, and display information such as: 1. Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data can be shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and risk assessment. 2. Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk
What to visualize for whom?
Stakeholder
Purpose
Type of risk visualization General public General information on risks over large areas Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay the location of major hazard types with high resolution imagery or topographic maps. Awareness raising Animations (what if scenarios) Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class, buildings and other features Businesses Investment policies, and location planning General information about hazards and risks in both graphical and map format. Technical staff of (local) authorities Land use regulation / zoning Map with simple legend in three classes: construction restricted, construction allowed, further investigation required. Building codes Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building type, number of floors) Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities and possible consequences Environmental Impact Assessment Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web-based information in both map and graphical forms Decision makers / local authorities Decision making on risk reduction measures Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N curves, maps. Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future scenarios. Strategic Environmental Assessment General statistical information for administrative units. NGOs Influence political decisions in favor of environment and sustainable development This can vary from simple maps to Web-based applications, depending on the objectives of the NGO Scientists / technical staff of hazard data producers Hazard information exchange to public and other agencies WebGIS applications where they can access the basic information Exchange of basic information for hazard and risk assessment Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanging information Insurance industry Development of insurance policy Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves Media Risk communication to public, Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate the problems. Risk visualization: example 1. http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php Risk visualisation: example 2 http:// www.risicokaart.nl Web-GIS: RiskCity http://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html Risk Atlases: example Java,Indonesia Risk atlas: example Andean countries http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html Population Roads Electrical energy system
Oil infrastructure Harbours Airports
Agriculture Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought Tsunami Risk Reduction Risk reduction R = f (H, V, C) R = Risk H = Hazard V = Vulnerability C = Coping capacity
Risk can be reduced by: 1. Reducing the hazard 2. Reducing the vulnerability of the elements at risk 3. Reducing the amount of the elements at risk 4. Increasing the coping capacity
Risk option strategies 1. Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard 2. Reduction (mitigate) i.e. likelyhood of occurence & modify the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption. 3. Transference (outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact of hazards on individuals and the community. 4. Retention ( accept and budget) Risk reduction measures Structural : Refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering measures and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure Non-Structural : Refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and methods and operating practices, including participatory mechanisms and the provision of information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.
Risk reduction measures Structural measures Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards engineering measures construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure retrofitting
Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas Foundation Base plate foundation Basement Waterproof concrete Enhancement openings and sealing Backflow flaps First & second floor Reinforcement of supporting walls Roof Reinforcement of roof Building openings Decrease amount and area of windows in hazard direction Avalanche shutters Temporary preventive measures (to close openings) Fuchs et al., 2011 Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas Measure Increase in construction costs Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall 17 Reinforcement of the structural slab 30 Reinforcement of the truss 10 Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area) -16 Avalanche-proof window and window shutters 67 Above flood-level light shafts +23 23 Total costs of the prototype reinforced building 8 Fuchs et al., 2011 Risk reduction measures
Dunes Dikes and polder s Dams and barriers e.g: Landuse planning-Netherlands To avoide future flood losses.... a secondary channel & island are planned. Restrictive development and some removal of existing buildings Non-Structural measures: 1. Awareness/Education 2. Early Warning 3. Preparedness and contingency planning 4. Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities, evacuation plans etc.)
Contingency Action Plan Contingency Action Plan "The plan is nothing. Planning is everything"
General Eisenhower Definition
A contingency plan is the synthesis of the discussions, analysis and decisions made during the planning process. It is also a means of communicating these ideas to people who may not have been involved in the planning process. Written contingency plans also document, and in some cases formalise, commitments made during the planning process.
A process, in anticipation of potential crises, of developing strategies, arrangements and procedures to address the humanitarian needs of those adversely affected by crises.
Contingency plans answer some basic questions about a potential situation. What could happen? What would be needed to alleviate the situation? How would action be taken? What materials, supplies and staff would be needed? What preparation is necessary? How much will it cost?
In other words.... Starts with considering the types disaster/MCI that can occured. Identifying and assessing common disasters is essential for planning how to response and minimize the effect. Identify the top five most probable problems that might occur regardless of whether the event has ever actually occurred. Once these events are identified, the next step involves developing an action plan specific to each emergency scenario and establishing procedures to be followed. Identifying And Assessing Contingencies Key Elements Of A Contingency Plan 1. Response strategy: Defines what is to be achieved. Based on the scenarios, specific intervention objectives and targets, including beneficiary numbers is developed. The response strategy links the scenarios and the subsequent plans. 2. Implementation plan: Defines how it is going to be achieved. Thus, the response strategy defines appropriate interventions or programmes; the implementation plan defines how these programmes will be implemented (e.g. using community-based targeting and partnership with local governments) and the steps required (e.g. emergency needs assessment and logistics). 3. Operational support plan: Sets out the administrative, logistical and other support requirements of a response. 4. Preparedness plan : Actions to improve preparedness for both specific and general crises are identified. In some exercises, these actions become the focus of planning efforts because they can have the biggest potential impact on actual responses. The results of this process, often called preparedness planning, are then consolidated into a preparedness plan. 5. Budget : Budget is developed, both for preparedness and for the actual responses that have been planned.
Contingency Planning Processes The Linear Model: The first step requires analysis of the hazards and risks faced by a population, to develop a better appreciation of the types of situation that require contingency planning. Followed by a specific prioritisation of contingencies (possible situations). For each of these contingencies, scenarios are developed, and form the basis for a contingency plan. Finally, preparedness actions defined in the plan are implemented, and the plan is periodically updated. The continuum model:
An ongoing process that does not finish with the activation of the emergency response. It helps to anticipate and prepare for different possibilities. The cycle is complete when lessons from the response are incorporated back into the contingency planning process. Triggered again when early warning mechanisms indicate the onset of the next crisis. When To Focus On Different Elements Of A Contingency Plan Sample Contingency Plan Summary 1 1. Risk Analysis consist of..... Hazard Identification Hazard Assessment Elements at risk/ Exposure Vulnerability Assessment Risk Estimation 2. Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general public. 1. Risk option management strategies: Avoidance Reduction Transference Retention 2. Risk reduction measures Structural Non Structural Summary 2 Summary 3 1. There are 5 elements of contingency plan. Response strategy Implementation plan Operational support plan Preparedness plan Budget 2. Contingency plan is important as... Bring significant benefits to humanitarian response. Helps to identify and prioritise preparedness activities, and the process itself can be a useful exercise in information preparedness. Maintain and improve the coordination mechanisms. Can identify indicators - focus early warning efforts. Translate early warning into early action......
Refferences
1.NSC Directive 20 , Minister Dept, Malaysia 2.https://www.ifrc.org 3.https://www.odihpn.org 4.https://ipcc-wg2.gov 5.http://www.wcpt.org/