1

Fourth Generation
War Evolves,
Fifth Emerges

T. X. Hammes
August 2007
2
Marine Palm Pilot
3
Purpose
How and why warfare changes
Recent evolutions in fourth generation
Potential fifth generation
Whats after that
4
4GW is Just a Model
Varied terminology used in
descriptions
Tofflers Waves
Forms of Energy
Generations of RMAs
Fourth Generation Construct
Focus on modern war
Simple
AQ uses it

5
Economic
Political
Social
Technology

Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violence
depended on the economic, social and political conditions of their
respective states. On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.
6
Four Generations
Massed Manpower Napoleonic
Massed Firepower WW I
Mechanized War WW II
Insurgency (information) dominant
since WW II
7
Fourth
Generation War
8
Mao Political struggle is PRIMARY
Organized all of society
Three phases
One Political organization
Two Guerrilla fight change correlation of
forces
Three Conventional fight ONLY after Phase II
is successful
First to write it down
9
Imitated and improved on Mao
Used international networks to change correlation of
forces
Tet 68 disaster tactically, strategic victory
Used political power to negate US military power
Still ended with conventional invasion
10
Coalition of insurgent groups
NEVER sought military victory
Target was US Congress
International media, celebrities, mainline Christian churches
Defeated Somoza politically
No Phase III offensive
11
First Intifada spontaneous eruption
Organized within weeks
Loosely affiliated self organizing web
Never even had a military aspect
Multiple messages
International children vs. powerful army
Israelis Israel proper safe, occupied zone unsafe
Palestinians We are holding our own
Result 1993 Oslo Accords
12
Intifada I - Children vs
Army
The Lasting Images
13
Reverses roles
Israel back to besieged
Palestinians back to ruthless terrorists
US position
No negotiation until terror stops
Supports Israeli security techniques
Includes seizure of more territory on West Bank
14
Al Aqsa Intifada
Oppression
15
Suicide Bombers
16
Afghans vs. Soviets
No unified resistance changing
coalitions
Essentially tribal = network
Overlaid religious and xenophobic aspects
Massive killing failed
Broke Soviet will
17
Fourth Generation Wars have ... proven
the superiority of the weaker power.
Ubeid al-Qurashi Jan 2002
Proto-typical non-nation state 4GW enemy
Transnational coalition of willing
Idea based
Global network of local insurgents
Strategic guidance is vertical
Tactical support is horizontal

18
Iraq
Classic 4GW approach
"The war is very long, and always think of
this as the beginning. And always make
the enemy think that yesterday was better
than today.' ZARQAWI
Tribal, ethnic and religious networks
Was Network of the willing
Sunni Salifi, Sunni secular, Shia radicals,
Free Lancers, Foreign Jihadists
Now the predictable civil war



19
Hizbollah-Israeli
Summer War
Hizb understood political aspects
Built political base services
Fought political fight
Saw victory is secured after fighting
High-low mix
Long range missiles Israeli focus
122mm Rockets most effective
Technological surprise C802, UAV
Lateral escalation!

20
War is contest of opposing wills
Cost of hightech vs insurgency
Record of success
Conventional = Status quo
Unconventional = Change
5-0 versus Superpowers
21
4
th
Generation
Insurgency Evolved
Direct attack on minds of decision makers
Uses all available networks political,
economic, social and military
Superior political will defeats greater
economic and military power.
Wars are measured in decades.
Political, Protracted, Networked
22
Key Changes in 4GW
since Mao
Strategic Shift
Organizational Shift
Participants Increase
Weapons
23
Strategic Shift
Insurgents View
NOT a military campaign
Strategic Communications Campaign
Supported by interagency efforts
Military action is NOT primary
Military action cannot solve the problem

24
Operational Shift
Coalition of the willing
Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq
Often hate each other
Transdimensional
Identify, recruit, indoctrinate, train, deploy,
control
Attack
Fund
25
Participants
Armed groups
Clans, tribes
Criminals
Private Military Companies
State use as well

26
Weapons of
Mass Disruption
Previous Incidents
27
Anthrax and Ricin
Capitol Hill
Included a warning and instructions
28
Bombings
Madrid
London
29
Weapons of
Mass Destruction
Practical Methods
30
Chemical: Bhopal
One temporary morgue
Killed = 15,000 Long term injury = 200,000
31
HYE: Oklahoma City
Truckload of Ammonium Nitrate
32
Texas City Ship
Explosion
Rail Cars 3 / 4 Mile from zero
33
HYE: Texas City Ship
Explosion
Shipload of Ammonium Nitrate
34
Summary of 4GW
Conflict is now Strategic Communications
Focus is outsiders
Internal conflict still bloody
Enemy will be shifting coalition of the
willing
Many more players with various
motivations
Cheaper, deadlier weapons
35
Fifth Generation
Emerges
36
S Curves
Innovation/Technology
Development
Experimentation
Institutionalization
Rapid Growth
Adoption
Maturation
Innovation
37
Generations of War
2d
Branches
5
th
All of
Society
4th All
of Govt.
3d Combined Arms
Time
P
r
e
v
a
l
e
n
c
e
/
P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e

38
Political Pressure on nation state
Economic Smaller Entities
Social Loyalty to cause not nation
Technology - Bio tech, Nano-tech,
Always on Net
39
Foreshadowing
Attacks
Capitol Hill -- anthrax - no information
London, Madrid bombs no connection
Increasing cause attacks
Earth Liberation, Animal Liberation Fronts
Several areas cyber, nano, bio
Biological advances
Synthetic biology Dr. Venter
Australians and Mouse Pox
Carlsons Curve
British student
40
5GW Goal
Stop Globalization
Potential coalition of the willing
Globalization losers
Fundamentalist movements
Environmental radicals
Destroy trust inhibit movement
Information physical not cyber
Personnel relationships
Material - containers
41
Super empowered individual or small
group
Uses increasing power of knowledge
creates off the shelf technology
Loyalty to cause not nation


Smallpox Worldwide
42
Beyond 5GW
43
Rate of Change
Kurzweils SINGULARITY
Change is exponential not linear
Overestimate in short term
Underestimate in long term
44
Bottom Line
21
st
Century will not bring
100 years of progress
It will be
20,000 years
45
Additional Information
www.d-n-i.net

The Sling and the Stone

txhammes@excite.com