Regression
STATS 101
Laurens Holmes, Jr.
Association does
not imply causation
Correlation does
not assume
causality but
regression does.
SIR FRANCIS GALTON (18221911)
Regression implies .to go backward, Why are statistical
methods for predicting a response from an explanatory variable
termed regression?
Sir Galton was the first to apply the word regression to biological and
psychological data. Specifically, Galton observed the heights of children versus
the heights of their parents. He discovered that taller than average parents
tended to have children who were also taller than average, but not as tall as
their parents. Galton characterized this as regression toward mediocrity.
Correlation Coefficient is also attributed to Francis Galton.
Correlation r
Linear relationships implying straight line
association are visualized with scatter
plots
Strong linear relationship
When the points lie close to a straight line,
and weak if they are widely scattered
Correlation r
Purpose: Measures the direction and
strength of the linear relationship between
two quantitative variables
Represented by r.
There is no assumption of causality
Assumes a linear association between two
variables.
Correlation r
Formula
r = 1/n1 (x1 x/sx)(y1y/sy)
Vignette
Suppose the height of 64 children with OI in our
sample is designated by x and their weight by y,
and n=64 (sample size). If the values of patient 1 is
x1 and y1, patient 2 is x2 and y2 and so on till we
obtain the values for patient 64. The means and
SD of the height and weight x and sx for the
height and y and sy for the weight. What is r?
r measures only a
straight line
relationship
Interpretations
X1x/sx is the standardized height of the
height and SD of OI patients in
centimeters
This means how many SD above or below
the mean of a patient with OI lies
Standardized values have no units
The r simply is the an average of the products of
the standardized height and standardized weight of
n people/patients with OI or people.
Vignette
The next slide is:
The hypothetical systolic BP and age of twenty CP
children in a sample at the nocity hospital.
The hypothetical weight and age of twenty CP
children in a sample at the nocity hospital.
Computing the correlation, is there a
relationship between SBP and age, as well
as weight and age in this sample? Also,
what do you see in the scatter plot?
What is the interpretation of your finding?
SBP Age
90 12.5
88 12.1
100 13.6
70 10.0
80 11.2
90 12.0
100 13.4
102 13.8
120 16.8
110 15.6
89 12.3
80 12.0
90 12.7
100 13.7
87 12.0
93 12.8
82 11.6
102 14.0
93 13.0
86 11.9
Table 1. BP and Age of Children with CP
Weight
(kg)
Age
38 12.5
45 12.1
35 13.6
50 10.0
60 11.2
45 12.0
30 13.4
51 13.8
53 16.8
40 15.6
43 12.3
39 12.0
41 12.7
40 13.7
50 12.0
56 12.8
52 111.6
62 14.0
39 13.0
44 11.9
Correlation r basic assumptions
No distinction between explanatory (x) and response (y)
variable.
The null hypothesis test that r is significantly different
from zero (0).
Requires both variables to be quantitative or continuous
variables
Both variables must be normally distributed. If one or
both are not, either transform the variables to near
normality or use an alternative nonparametric test of
Spearman
Use Spearman Correlation coefficient when the shape of
the distribution is not assumed or variable is distribution
free.
Correlation r basic assumptions
No categorical or nominal variables
r does not change when we change the units of
measurement. For example, from Kg to pounds
for weight. Why?
r uses standardized values of the observations.
r does not measure nor describe curved or non
linear association no matter how strong.
Like the mean and SD, r is not resistant or
uninfluenced by outliers.
r is strongly affected by outlier or outlying observations.
Figure 1. Scatter plot of the relationship between
SPB and age of children with CP (hypothetical data)
7
0
8
0
9
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
0
S
P
B
10 12 14 16 18
Age
Normality test : weight, age, SBP, age
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
 joint 
Variable  Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
+
spb  0.360 0.339 1.96 0.3762
age  0.080 0.113 5.37 0.0681
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
 joint 
Variable  Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
+
weightkg  0.564 0.755 0.44 0.8009
age  0.000 0.000 33.26 0.0000
STATA Output Correlation
coefficient (Pearson)
pwcorr spb age, obs sig star(5)
 spb age
+
spb  1.0000

 20

age  0.9801* 1.0000
 0.0000
 20 20
Nonsignificant
correlation does not
imply no association
Scatter plot of the relationship between weight and
age of children with CP (hypothetical data)
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
W
e
i
g
h
t
0 50 100
Age
STATA Output Correlation coefficient (Pearson)
versus Spearman Rank Correlation
pwcorr weight age, obs sig star(5)
 weight age
+
weight  1.0000

 20

age  0.1741 1.0000
 0.4630
 20 20\
spearman weightkg age, stats(rho obs p) star(0.05)
Number of obs = 20
Spearman's rho = 0.0211
Test of Ho: weightkg and age are independent
Prob > t = 0.9296
What is the
correct stats
technique?
Correlation r  Interpretation
Positive r indicates positive linear association
between x and y or variables, and negative r
indicates negative linear relationship
R s always between 1 and +1
The strength increases as r moves away from
zero toward wither 1 or +1
The extreme values +1 and 1 indicate perfect
linear relationship (points lie exactly along a
straight line)
Graded interpretation : r 0.10.3 = weak; 0.40.7
= moderate and 0.81.0=strong correlation
Vignette
Suppose there is a linear relationship
between age of CP patients in the sample
data with 66 patients and SBP, examine
this relationship and interpret your results.
Analysis
SPSS Analysis
SPSS Analysis
SPSS Output
SPSS AnalysisSpearman
SPSS Output Spearmans rho
Interpretation
In a sample of 66 children with CP, there is no
significant relationship between age of the
children and systolic BP, r = 0.02, p = 0.90.
Assuming nonnormal distribution of either one
of the variables, a nonparametric test was used
(Spearman Rank correlation), r = 0.025, p =
0.84.
In either test, there is no linear relationship
between age at surgery and the SBP of these
patients.
However the absence of a linear association does not rule
out a nonlinear relationship between the age of these
patients and their SBP.
Simple Linear Regression
Stats 101
SLR does is not a
measure of
association but
linear relationship
Absence of a significant
association in SLR does
not imply absence of non
linear association.
Regression Model
Statistical technique for assessing the
relationship between dependent and one
or more independent variable
The relationship between two variables is
characterized by how they vary together.
Given pairs of X and Y variables,
regression analysis measures the direction
(positive and negative) and the rate of
change in Y as X changes (Slope)
Regression Model
Adequate for predicting the value of Y,
given X
Inappropriate for assessing the strength of
an association between two or more
variables
Causal association assumed
Simple regression model
Regression equation and line represent
the simple linear equation and describe
the shape of the relationship between the
variables.
Regression line is the line drawn through
scatter plot that test the fitness of the
regression model like the coefficient of
determination in the model
Basic Assumptions
Linearity The relationship between Y and
X is linear (straight line relationship)
Residuals are independent and normally
distributed
Homosedasticity  The variance of the
residuals is equal for all X
There is no measurement error on X
(impractical assumption)  < 10% is
assumed adequate measurement error.
Basics of SLR
Different values of x will produce different
values of y
Uy = o + 1x
The mean all lie on a straight line
Both y and x vary according to normal
distributions
The normal distributions all have the same
standard deviation
The explanatory variables x can take many
values
Basics of simple linear
regression
All means lie on a line when plotted
against x
The equation of the line is y = o + 1x,
with intercept o and slope 1
Population regression line describes how
the mean response changes with x
The response y to a given x is a random
variable that can take different values if we
have several observations with the same
xvalue
Simple linear regression model
The population regression line connects mean of y with x in
the population
The slope 1 is the mean increase in y for increase in x or
vice versa
The intercept o is the starting point when x = 0.
DATA = FIT + RESIDUAL
The RESIDUAL represents deviations of the data from the
line of population means
The model takes the deviation to be normally distributed with
standard deviation
represents the residual part of the stats model
Y is the sum of its mean and chance deviation from the
mean
The deviation represent the noise, implying the variation in
y due to other causes that prevent the observed (x,y)values
from forming a perfect straight line on a scatterplot.
Simple linear regression model
The data are n observations on an explanatory
variable x and response variable y, (x1y1), (x2,y2),
(x3,y3).., (xn,yn)
The statistical model for SLR states that the observed
response yi when the explanatory variable takes the
value xi is:
Yi=o + 1x1 + i
y= o + 1x1 is the mean response when x = xi. The
deviation i are independent and normally distributed
with mean 0 and SD,
The parameters of the model are the intercept and
slope of the population regression line and the
variability () of the response y about the line.
Simple linear regression model
Model involves parameters that are unknown (0 and
1) but can be estimated from sample data
The error term, termed eta is also unobservable but
can be estimated from sample data
Regression coefficients are values that represent the
effect of the individual independent variable (X) on the
dependent variable (Y)
R2 is the coefficient of determination and illustrates
the amount of variation in the dependent variable that
is explained by variation in the independent variable.
0 is the intercept on Y when X=0
1 is the slope of the regression which is increase or
decrease in Y for each change in X.
SLR : F test and t test
F test is used as a general indicator of the
probability that the predictor variable contribute
to the variance in the dependent variable.
The null hypothesis is that the predictor weight is zero
The t test is used to test the significance of the
predictor in the equation.
The null hypothesis is that the predictor or independent
variable does not contribute to the variance in the dependent
variable.
Vignette Hypothetical Data
Suppose you are interested in predicting
the weight (gm) in pericentrin positive
dwarfism based on the gestational age
(wks). Is correlation coefficient appropriate
test for this project? If not, select
appropriate test statistic, present the
regression equation, and interpret your
result. Test the fitness of the model and
explain coefficient of determination?
SPSS Analysis
Scatter plot
Normality Test
. swilk gm_wt
ShapiroWilk W test for normal data
Variable  Obs W V z Prob>z
+
gm_wt  320 0.89954 22.665 7.348 0.00000
. swilk gestationalageinweeks
ShapiroWilk W test for normal data
Variable  Obs W V z Prob>z
+
gestation~ks  320 0.80004 45.112 8.969 0.00000
.
sktest gm_wt gestationalageinweeks
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
 joint 
Variable  Obs Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
+
gm_wt  320 0.0000 0.9223 29.74 0.0000
gestation~ks  320 0.0000 0.0000 . 0.0000
.
Is wt (gm)
normally
distributed
?
Is
gestational
age (wks)
normally
distributed?
Regression (Output) & Equation
regress gm_wt gestationalageinweeks if n_catgesta==1, vce(robust)
Linear regression Number of obs = 78
F( 1, 76) = 445.12
Prob > F = 0.0000
Rsquared = 0.8849
Root MSE = 320.37

 Robust
gm_wt  Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]
+
gestation~ks  102.313 4.849445 21.10 0.000 92.65446 111.9715
_cons  2546.343 207.273 12.28 0.000 2959.163 2133.523
WEIGHT =  2546.3 + 102.3 grams (GESTATIONAL AGE in WEEKS)
Regression Line, Equation, R square
Figure: Growth gain in pericentrin positive promodal dwarfism ( = > 2 years gestaional age)
y = 3.708x  0.891
R
2
= 0.8972
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Age in years
W
e
i
g
h
t
i
n
K
g
Weight (kg) Linear (Weight (kg))
What is R
square?
Interpret the
regression
equation
Vignette
In children with CP who underwent spinal
fusion for curve deformities correction, can
postoperative cobb angle be used in
predicting their length of hospitalization?
What is the regression equation? Please
interpret your result.
Scatter plot
Is there a linear
relationship from
this plot?
SLR: SPSS
Ignore
Result Interpretation
The result from SLR states the direction, strength, value,
degrees of freedom and significance level.
Note that if ANOVA is not significant, the section of the output
labeled sig will be > 0.05, implying that the regression equation is
not significant.
Statement of result: A simple linear regression was
computed predicting CP childrens length of hospital stay
following spinal fusion based on their postoperative cobb
angle. The regression equation was not significant (F(
1,62)= 0.18, p = 0.67, with an R square of 0.003.
Therefore, postoperative cobb angle cannot be used to predict the
length of hospitalization following spinal fusion in CP children with
scoliosis.
53
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