Trends in Smartphones and

How To Find Opportunities

for Innovation
Joseph Dvorak, PhD
Manager of Innovation &
Technology Futurist,
Research In Motion
jdvorak@rim.com

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Big Picture

• Aging population
• Ubiquitous Connectivity
• Empowered Individuals
• Values Based Interaction

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Aging
Population
A World of Florida’s: The average age
is increasing in many societies around
the world, and senior cohorts are
growing rapidly.
 Aging to speed up
Median age 2000: 26
Resource Allocation
Median age 2050: 36
Increased Longevity
 2050—2 billion people 60+
 W1 markets older—e.g., Italian
median over 50 in 2050
 New models for post-work lifestyles
with 20+ years of active retirement
Aging In Place Wellness as a Lifestyle
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Ubiquitous Connectivity
• Ubiquitous connectivity is making
information access more constant while
mobile
• Distinctions between work and home
are eroding as access increases
• Physical, political boundaries becoming
less important in social interactions

Media Platform Convergence Social Networking

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Individuals are Becoming
Empowered as Never Before
• The Internet facilitates product price and review
comparisons
• Online tools help consumers keep companies
accountable for both service and delivery
performance
• Consumers have new outlets to express their
satisfaction or anger
• Mobile online access being used in political and
social activism

Consumer Reviews
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Values Based Interaction

• Consumers are increasingly seeking

out companies aligned with their
social values
– Recycling
– Organic agriculture
Conscientious
– Ethical labor practices Consumption
– Low carbon footprint

Support for Climate Change Corporate Social

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
Responsibility
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Significant Technology Trends

• The arrival of the real personal

computer
• Moore’s Law marches on
• The increasing role of context
• The Digitization of Knowledge

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Arrival of the Real
Personal Computer

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Moore’s Law Marches On

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Increasing Role
of Context

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Digitization of
Knowledge

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 5 Emerging Trends
for Smartphones
• The phone becomes a sensor
platform
• An increasing question of
balance: Network vs. local
intelligence
• The worsening power gap
• The looming cloud of
complexity
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
The Phone Becomes a
Sensor Platform GPS
ambient light sensor accelerometer

menu traversal
patterns microphone

weather sensor camera

biosensor time/date

environmental calling logs

sensor

application usage digital compass

patterns

radio coverage patterns altimeter

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
pressure sensors
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 An Increasing Question
of Balance: Network
vs. Local Intelligence

Disk Density
Processor Speed
RAM Density
Wireless Speed
Battery Power

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Worsening Power Gap

HD Video
Fuel On board
Cells sensors
Energy Folding
scavenging displays
Better Micro
batteries projector

Power Supply Power Demand

10x
1x
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Looming Issue of
Complexity

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 How Do We Innovate
in This Climate?

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Types of Innovation

0 – 18 mos.

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Types of Innovation

0 – 18 mos.

7+ years

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Types of Innovation

0 – 18 mos.

Web
Browser

3 - 7 years

7+ years

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Why is it Hard to Innovate for the Future?

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 There is Much Working Against It

• No precedent, constantly changing too

complex, its coming faster

• Uncomfortable – no ‘right’ answer

• Common human and social cognitive biases

• Trapped by the ‘Zeitgeist’

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Monitor Trends
• Trends are used to make educated
guesses about the evolution of a
specific force or state in a specific
time frame
– Can be any of Trend Evolution
• Social
• Technical
• Economic
• Environmental
• Political
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 What Remains Constant Through
Time: User Problems/Needs

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (see

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs)
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Constancy of Basic
Problems/Needs
• People’s basic needs
remain fairly constant
• Characteristics of a basic
problem/need can change
– Perceived priority
– Problem expression
– Available/permitted
avenues for problem
expression
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Problem Solutions are
Highly Variable

• Solutions to needs change based upon

– Technology
– Social customs & conventions
– Legal constraints
– External events

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Anatomy of a Task
Task Task
Device • Task relevant only to the operation of
the device or service.
– Little or no relevance to solving the
user’s real problem/need.
Task
Support
Task
• Task of limited user interest
– Some visible user benefit and
relevance to the solution of the real
problem/need.
Primary •
Task Task
Task of direct relevance to the solution
of the user’s real problem/need
Goal
User
Goal
• The solution to the user’s real
problem/need
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Innovation Through
Observation

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 The Most Valuable Phrases for
Innovation Through Observation

“Gee, that’s strange …”

“Why are they doing that?”

“There’s got to be a better

way!”
This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 How to Observe for Innovation
What to look for
• Task flow Interruption / Termination /
Modification
• Difficulty/Inability using the device
• Device Task initiation
• Unexpected behavior correlated with the
presence or use of the device

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Ask Questions!
• “Why?”
– “Why is the user doing this?”
– “Why doesn’t she do it like most others?”
– “Why doesn’t she continue with the task?”
– Why is she violating a social/cultural convention or taboo?
– “Why is she enlisting the assistance of someone else?”
• “How?”
– “How could she do the real task better?”
– “How could he eliminate x?”
– “How might the current task be simplified?”
– “How could he use the device without
interrupting/modifying/terminating the task flow?”
• “What?”
– “What would have to change to make the task easier for the user?”
– “What alternatives does the user have for achieving his goal?”

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
Analyze Interactions Among Emerging
Technologies
Empowered Individuals
Aging Population

Today

Telepresence

Mobile Devices

Robotics

Context Awareness

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
Connections for Innovation
GPS
ambient light sensor accelerometer

menu traversal
patterns microphone

weather sensor camera

biosensor time/date

environmental calling logs

sensor

application usage digital compass

patterns

radio coverage patterns altimeter

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
pressure sensors
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 It Is More Important To Be
Curious Than To Be Focused

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.
 Thank You

jdvorak@rim.com

This slides represent the opinions of the author and do not represent official RIM plans
or policy. No inference should be drawn as to future actions by RIM.