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Anthony Chevers
SBCO 6240 - Production and Operations Management
Lecture #4 – Forecasting
Definition & purpose
Forecasting models
Simple moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing
Trend projections
Regression analysis
Forecast errors
Exercises
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 2
My interest is in the future
because I am going to spend
the rest of my life there.
—Charles F. Kettering
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 3
Some Reasons Why
Forecasting is Essential
in OM
New Facility Planning – It can take 5 years to design
and build a new factory or design and implement a new
production process.
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Factors to Consider
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
6
Introduction
Eight steps to forecasting:
• Determine the use of the forecast
• Select the items or quantities to be forecasted
• Determine the time horizon of the forecast
• Select the forecasting model or models
• Gather the data needed to make the forecast
• Validate the forecasting model
• Make the forecast
• Implement the results
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Forecasting Models
Forecasting
Techniques
Consumer
Market Survey
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Method
Subjective Models
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Some Time Series Models
Simple Moving Average
K-Period MA =
∑(Actual Value in previous k
periods) / k
i=1
∑(weight for period i) (actual value in period i)
∑(weights)
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 11
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing method: A sophisticated weighted moving
average method that calculates the average of a time series by
giving recent demands more weight than earlier demands.
Exponential smoothing is the most frequent used formal forecasting
method because of its simplicity and the small amount of date
needed to support it.
1 SM
Lecture 6 – Forecasting |
Calculation of 3-Month
Simple Moving Average
Month Actual Shed 3-Month Moving Average
Sales
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10+12+13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12+13+16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13+16+19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16+19+23)/3 = 19 1/3
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 14
Limitations of Simple MA
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 15
Calculating Weighted
Moving Averages
Weights Period
Applied
3 Last month
2 Two months ago
1 Three months ago
3 * Sales last moth +
2 * Sales two months ago +
1 * Sales three months ago
6 Sum of weights
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 16
Calculation of 3-Month
Weighted-Moving Average
Month Actual 3 Month MA
Shed
Sales
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 [(3*13) + (2*12) + (1*10)] 6 = 12 1
6
May 19 [(3*16) + (2*13) + (1*12)] = 14 1
3
June 23 [(3*19) + (2*16) + (1*14)] = 17
July 26 [(3*23) + (2*19) + (1*16)] = 20 ½
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 17
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast =
previous forecast + α (previous actual - previous)
or:
where
F t = F t −1 +α ( A t −1 − F t −1 )
F t = new forecast
F t-1 = previous forecast
α = smoothing constant
A t −1 = previous period actual
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 18
Equation [Ft = Ft-1 + α (At-1 – Ft-1 )]
TABLE 5.4
Port of Baltimore Exponential Smoothing Forecasts for a α = 0.10 and α = 0.50
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 19
Selecting the Smoothing
Constant (α )
Select α to minimize:
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 20
Table – Detailed
Calculation
[84/8 = 10.50 & 100/8 = 12.50; Select: α = 0.10]
TABLE 5.5
Absolute Deviations and MADs for Port of Baltimore Example
QUARTER ACTUAL ROUNDED ABSOLUTE ROUNDED ABSOLUTE
TONNAGE FORECAST DEVIATIONS FORECAST FORECAST
UNLOADED USING FOR USING USING
α =0.10* α =0.10* α =0.50* α =0.50*
1 180 175 5 175 5
2 168 176 8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 175 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 205 175 30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
Sum of absolute deviations 84 100
Actu
Tonn
MSE = ∑ forecast errors2
n
87.25 ?
Quarter Unloa
As a practice, find the MSE for α = 0.50 and conclude findings.
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 22
Trend Projection
A time series forecasting method that fits a trend line
to a series of historical data points and then projects
the line into the future for medium-to-long range
forecasts.
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 23
The Least Squares Method
for Finding the Best-Fitting Straight Line [Time on x-axis]
Deviation
Values of dependent variable (values)
Deviation Deviation
5
6
Deviation
3
Deviation
4
Deviation
(error) Deviation
1
2
Trend Line,
y=a + bx
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Time period
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 24
Least Squares Line
Described in terms of its y-intercept (the height
at which it intercepts the y-axis) and its slope
(the angle of the line)
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 26
Notations
ƅ = slope of the regression line
∑ = summation sign
x = known values of the independent variable
y = known values of the dependent variable
x = average of the value of the x’s
ӯ = average of the values of the y’s
n = number of data points or observations
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 27
Exercise -
BurkeCampbellChevers
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 28
Solution:
b = (∑XY – nXY) / (∑X2 – nX2)
Year Tim
a
1999
x=
=Y-bX
28/7
a=9
8.8
6-(
10.5
4x4
)
a=9
8.8
6-4
2.1
6
a= 5
6.
7
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 29
Least Square Trend
Equation
Thus, the least square trend equation is:
y = 56.70 + 10.54 x
To project demand in 2006, we first denote the
year 2006 as x=8
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 32
Regression Analysis
For example, the sales of PC’s might be related to
advertising budget, the price charged, competitors’
prices, promotional strategies, the economy,
disposable income, unemployment rates or time.
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 33
Linear Regression
Analysis
A straight-line mathematical model to describe
the functional relationships between
independent and dependent variables
Y X
Triple A' Sales Local Payroll
($100,000's) ($100,000,000)
2.0 1
3.0 3
2.5 4
2.0 2
2.0 1
3.5 7
Y = 1.75 + 0.25X
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 35
Solution
b = (∑XY – nXY) / (∑X2 – nX2)
Y X XY X2
2 1 2 1
3 3 9 9
2.5 4 10 16
2 2 4 4
2 1 2 1
3.5 7 24.5 49
15 18 51.5 80
Total
Average 2.50 3.00
If X is 6
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 36
Solution - Projection
If the local Chamber of Commerce predicts
that the payroll will be $600 million next
period, we can estimate sales with the
regression equation:
• 1.75 + 0.25(6)
• 1.75 + 1.50 = 3.25
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 37
Exercise 1
Demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital
has increased steadily in the past few years, as seen in the table.
The director of medical services predicted six years ago that the
demand in year 1 would be for 41 surgeries
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 38
Exercise 2
Tongren Construction Company renovates old homes in
Balvenie, Mandeville. Over time, the company has found that its
dollar volume of renovation work is dependent on the Balvenie
area payroll. The following table lists Tongren’s revenues and
the amount of money earned by wage earners in Balvenie
during the following six years.
Exponential smooth
3
Year Demand- Y e a r
1 YearD
45
Exponential smoot
2 501
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 40
Solution – Tutorial #2
Y
2
3
2.5
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 41
Normal Distribution
.00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359
.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753
.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141
∞
.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 .6293 .6331 .6368 .6406 .6443 .6480 .6517
.4
.5
.6
.6554
.6915
.7257
.6591
.6950
.7291
.6628
.6985
.7324
.6664
.7019
.7357
.6700
.7054
.7389
.6736
.7088
.7422
- .6772
.7123
.7454
.6808
.7157
.7486
0 z
.6844
.7190
.7517
.6879
+
.7224
.7549
∞
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7828 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
. 9 .8159 .8186 .212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
1.0 .8413 .8438 .8461 .8485 .8508 .8531 .8554 .8577 .8599 .8621
1.1 .8643 .8665 .8686 .8708 .8729 .8749 .8770 .8790 .8810 .8830
1.2 .8849 .8869 .8888 .8907 .8925 .8944 .8962 .8980 .8997 .9015
1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099 .9115 .9131 .9147 .9162 .9177
1.4 .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251 .9265 .9279 .9292 .9306 .9319
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767
2.0 .9772 .9778 .9783 .9788 .9793 .9798 .9803 .9808 .9812 .9817
2.1 .9821 .9826 .9830 .9834 .9838 .9842 .9846 .9850 .9854 .9857
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871 .9875 .9878 .9881 .9884 .9887 .9890
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901 .9904 .9906 .9909 .9911 .9913 .9916
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925 .9927 .9929 .9931 .9932 .9934 .9936
2.5 .9938 .9940 .9941 .9943 .9945 .9946 .9948 .9949 .9951 .9952
2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964
2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974
2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981
2.9 .9981 .9982 .9982 .9983 .9984 .9984 .9985 .9985 .9986 .9986
3.0 .9987 .9987 .9987 .9988 .9988 .9989 .9989 .9989 .9990 .9990
3.1 .9990 .9991 .9991 .9991 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9993 .9993
3.2 .9993 .9993 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9995 .9995 .9995
3.3 .9995 .9995 .9995 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9997
3.4 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9998
Lecture 6 – Forecasting | 42
NEXT LECTURE:
Inventory Management
D. Anthony Chevers
delroy.chevers@uwimona.edu.jm
DOMS, Room #28
43