Forecasting

Rohit Kapoor
Motivating Example: A Reality
When Big Bazaar launched this scheme, Sabse Sasta Teen
Din, in 2006, they sold goods worth of Rs. 260 million.
Encouraged by the response, they ran the scheme for 3 days in
2007. During this 3-day period, approximately 6 million people
visited their stores. The 43 outlets of Big Bazaar sold goods
worth Rs. 1.25 billion. A total of 108 thousands bed-sheets,
30,000 cell-phones and 11,000 pieces of apparel were sold.
There were reports that the company had to shutdown many of
the outlets as they had not anticipated the customer response and
the stocks of several popular items had been exhausted.
Learning: predicting the demand for such schemes is always
tricky
Characteristics of Forecasts
During the economic downturn in 2001, CISCO found that its sales
plunged by 30 percent and it was stuck with huge inventory. CISCO
decided to write - off an inventory of $2.2 billion, and CISCOs stock
price dropped to a record low at $13.36 (stock price was quoted at $83
in 2000). Though all networking companies are affected by the
downturn, the losses suffered by CISCO surprised everyone. CSICO
relied very heavily on its state of the art virtual close software and
expected that demand will rise when other companies in the industry
expected the demand to decline. CISCOs software had built-in
growth bias and was not designed to capture the impact of change in
economy. Experts believe that this over reliance on the forecasting
technology led people to undervalue human judgment and intuition,
and inhibited frank conversations among supply chain partners. The
CEO John Chambers admitted in the interview that We never built
models to anticipate something of this magnitude
www.cio.com/article/viewArticle/30413/What_Went_Wrong_at_Cisco_in.
Characteristics of Forecasts
Contd.
Longer the forecast horizon, the worse the forecast
7-Eleven Japan has exploited this key property to improve
its performance. The company has instituted a replenishment
process that enables it to respond to an order within hours.
For example, if a store manager places an order by 10:00
AM, the order is delivered by 7:00 PM the same day.
Therefore, the manager only has to forecast what will sell
that night less than 12 hours before the actual sale.
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate
Farther up the supply chain, more will be the error
in forecasting
An Interesting Forecasting by
Asian Paints
Asian Paints found that in certain districts of Maharashtra
there is a spike in demand for a 50-100 ml packs of
deep orange shade during a specific period of the year.
Further investigations revealed that a few districts of
Maharashtra observe a local festival called Pola, and
during that festival, farmers paint the horns of bullocks
with deep orange shade. Asian Paints is aware of the
fact that the paint-buying decision is linked to festivals,
and India being a diverse country with different regions
celebrating various festivals at different times of the
year, it is important for Asian Paints to capture the
same in their forecasting models.
www.cio.in/article/view/viewArticle?ARTICLEID=1237

Analytical Methods for
Forecasting
Static Methods
Adaptive Methods
Casual Methods
Static Methods
Case 1: Forecasting the trend form
Case 2: Forecasting seasonality
Case 3: Forecasting combination of
seasonality and trend
Case 1: Forecasting the Trend
Form
A constant increase or decrease in demand
denotes
Linear trend
Model
Forecast (t) = a + b * t
Case 1: Forecasting the Trend
Form
t D(t)
1 328
2 310
3 355
4 362
5 375
6 380
7 408
8 415
9 417
10 412
11 429
12 434
13 449
14 471
15 475
16 489
D(t)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
D
e
m
a
n
d
D(t)
Case 1: Forecasting the Trend
Form Calculations
t D(t) t-Tavg D(t) - Davg (t-Tavg) * (D(t)-Davg) (t-tavg)^2 Forecast Abs error
1 328 -7.5 -78.81 591.09 56.25 326.40 1.60
2 310 -6.5 -96.81 629.28 42.25 337.12 27.12
3 355 -5.5 -51.81 284.97 30.25 347.84 7.16
4 362 -4.5 -44.81 201.66 20.25 358.56 3.44
5 375 -3.5 -31.81 111.34 12.25 369.29 5.71
6 380 -2.5 -26.81 67.03 6.25 380.01 0.01
7 408 -1.5 1.19 -1.78 2.25 390.73 17.27
8 415 -0.5 8.19 -4.09 0.25 401.45 13.55
9 417 0.5 10.19 5.09 0.25 412.17 4.83
10 412 1.5 5.19 7.78 2.25 422.90 10.90
11 429 2.5 22.19 55.47 6.25 433.62 4.62
12 434 3.5 27.19 95.16 12.25 444.34 10.34
13 449 4.5 42.19 189.84 20.25 455.06 6.06
14 471 5.5 64.19 353.03 30.25 465.78 5.22
15 475 6.5 68.19 443.22 42.25 476.51 1.51
16 489 7.5 82.19 616.41 56.25 487.23 1.77
Mean 8.5 406.8125 7.57
Sum 3645.5 340
b 10.72206
a 315.675
Forecast vs. Actual Demand
Actual Demand vs. Forecasted Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
D
e
m
a
n
d
D(t)
Forecast
Estimating Forecasting Error
Four ways:
Mean error (ME)
Value close to 0
Magnitude of the error?
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
Mean square error (MSE)
Higher value of error should attract higher penalties!
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Different Estimates of Forecast
Error
Month Sales Forecast Error
Absolute
Deviation
Square
Error
Absolute
% Error
1 328 326 2 2 4 0.61%
2 310 337 -27 27 729 8.71%
3 355 348 7 7 49 1.97%
4 362 359 3 3 9 0.83%
5 375 369 6 6 36 1.60%
6 380 380 0 0 0 0.00%
7 408 391 17 17 289 4.17%
8 415 401 14 14 196 3.37%
9 417 412 5 5 25 1.20%
10 412 423 -11 11 121 2.67%
11 429 434 -5 5 25 1.17%
12 434 444 -10 10 100 2.30%
13 449 455 -6 6 36 1.34%
14 471 466 5 5 25 1.06%
15 475 476 -1 1 1 0.21%
16 489 487 2 2 4 0.41%
Mean 0.0625 7.5625 103.0625 1.98%
ME MAD MSE MAPE
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Time Block
Period
within
block Demand
1 1 6
2 2 55
3 3 249
4 4 646
5 1 24
6 2 73
7 3 140
8 4 569
9 1 12
10 2 28
11 3 136
12 4 631
1
2
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
D
e
m
a
n
d

Period
Demand Data
Demand
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Periodicity
p = 4
Peak demand at 4, 8, 12
Lowest demand at 1, 5, 9
Data is divided into blocks
m blocks having p demand periods
Seasonality index
Block j and period i
Seasonality index for i
th
period
Average seasonality index for period i across the blocks
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Some Equations
Seasonality index of period i for block j
S(i, j) = (d
i
)/[(d
1
+ d
2
+ + d
p
)/p]
For each period i within block j
Average seasonality index for period i
within a block
S(i)
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Analysis
Time Block
Period
within
block Demand Average
Seasonal
Index of
Period
1 1 6 0.03
2 2 55 0.23
3 3 249 1.04
4 4 646 2.70
5 1 24 0.12
6 2 73 0.36
7 3 140 0.69
8 4 569 2.82
9 1 12 0.06
10 2 28 0.14
11 3 136 0.67
12 4 631 3.13
1
2
3
239
201.5
201.75
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Seasonality Index Calculation
Period/Block S(i, 1) S(i, 2) S(i, 3)
Average
Seasonality
Index
1 0.03 0.12 0.06 0.07
2 0.23 0.36 0.14 0.24
3 1.04 0.69 0.67 0.80
4 2.70 2.82 3.13 2.88
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
De-seasonalizing Demand
De-seasonalized demand data (t)
Demand(t)/S(t)
Forecast (t)
[Level (t)] * Seasonal index (t)
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Calculations
Time Block
Period
within
block Demand Average
Seasonal
Index of
Period
De-
Seasonlized
Demand Forecast Abs Error
1 1 6 0.03 88 14 8
2 2 55 0.23 226 52 3
3 3 249 1.04 310 171 78
4 4 646 2.70 224 613 33
5 1 24 0.12 353 14 10
6 2 73 0.36 300 52 21
7 3 140 0.69 174 171 31
8 4 569 2.82 197 613 44
9 1 12 0.06 177 14 2
10 2 28 0.14 115 52 24
11 3 136 0.67 169 171 35
12 4 631 3.13 219 613 18
Mean 213 26
1
2
3
239
201.5
201.75
Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality
Fit
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
D
e
m
a
n
d

Period
Demand Data Vs. Actual Data
Demand
Forecast
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Quarter Sales
1 45
2 335
3 520
4 100
5 70
6 370
7 590
8 170
9 100
10 585
11 830
12 285
13 100
14 725
15 1160
16 310
Sales
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarter
D
e
m
a
n
d
Sales
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Observation
Seasonality with periodicity, p = 4
Demand seems to be increasing every year
Hence, trend component is also present
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Methodology
Forecasting model
Demand (t) = (Level (t) + Trend parameter * t) * Seasonality
parameter (t) + random error
Step 1: Determine the seasonality index for each time
period within a block (similar to Case 2)
Step 2: De-seasonalize the demand data (similar to
Case 2)
Step 3: Determine the trend and level components for
the de-seasonalized data series (similar to Case 1)
Step 4: Finalize the forecasting model
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Time Block
Period
within
Block Demand
Average
Demand
Seasonality
Index
1 1 45 0.18
2 2 335 1.34
3 3 520 2.08
4 4 100 0.40
5 1 70 0.23
6 2 370 1.23
7 3 590 1.97
8 4 170 0.57
9 1 100 0.22
10 2 585 1.30
11 3 830 1.84
12 4 285 0.63
13 1 100 0.17
14 2 725 1.26
15 3 1160 2.02
16 4 310 0.54
1
2
3
4
250
300
450
573.75
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Period/Block 1 2 3 4
Average
Seasonality
Index
1 0.18 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.20
2 1.34 1.23 1.30 1.26 1.28
3 2.08 1.97 1.84 2.02 1.98
4 0.40 0.57 0.63 0.54 0.54
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Time
De-
seasonlized
Demand t-Tavg D(t) - Davg (t-Tavg) * (D(t) - Davg) (t-tavg)^2
1 222 -7.5 -172 1290.14 56.25
2 261 -6.5 -133 867.28 42.25
3 263 -5.5 -131 722.82 30.25
4 187 -4.5 -207 933.27 20.25
5 346 -3.5 -49 169.89 12.25
6 288 -2.5 -106 265.44 6.25
7 298 -1.5 -96 144.05 2.25
8 318 -0.5 -77 38.29 0.25
9 494 0.5 100 49.82 0.25
10 456 1.5 61 91.86 2.25
11 420 2.5 25 63.21 6.25
12 533 3.5 138 484.23 12.25
13 494 4.5 100 448.37 20.25
14 565 5.5 170 936.40 30.25
15 586 6.5 192 1248.66 42.25
16 579 7.5 185 1388.05 56.25
Mean 8.5 394.28
Sum b 27 9141.77 340
a 165.74
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Step 1, 2 and 3 are complete
Step 4:
Forecast(t) = (165.74 + 27 * t) * Seasonality Index(t)

Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Time Block
Period
within
Block Demand Average Demand
Seasonality
Index
De-
seasonlized
Demand Forecast Abs Error
1 1 45 0.18 222 39 6
2 2 335 1.34 261 282 53
3 3 520 2.08 263 487 33
4 4 100 0.40 187 146 46
5 1 70 0.23 346 61 9
6 2 370 1.23 288 420 50
7 3 590 1.97 298 700 110
8 4 170 0.57 318 204 34
9 1 100 0.22 494 83 17
10 2 585 1.30 456 558 27
11 3 830 1.84 420 913 83
12 4 285 0.63 533 261 24
13 1 100 0.17 494 104 4
14 2 725 1.26 565 696 29
15 3 1160 2.02 586 1126 34
16 4 310 0.54 579 319 9
1
2
3
4
250
300
450
573.75
Case 3: Forecasting Combination
of Seasonality and Trend Fit
Forecasted Demand Vs. Actual Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
D
e
m
a
n
d
Demand
Forecast
Adaptive Methods
Moving Average
Simple Exponential Smoothening
Holts Method
Winters Method
Basic Data
Month TV Sales CD Sales AC Sales
1 30 40 13
2 32 47 7
3 30 50 23
4 39 49 32
5 33 56 58
6 34 53 60
7 34 55 90
8 38 63 93
9 36 68 63
10 39 65 39
11 30 72 37
12 36 69 29
13 38 79 36
14 30 82 21
15 35 80 47
16 30 85 81
17 34 94 112
18 40 89 139
19 36 96 230
20 32 100 201
21 40 100 122
22 36 105 84
23 40 108 74
24 34 110 62
TV Sales
TV Sales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
13579
1
1
1
3
1
5
1
7
1
9
2
1
2
3
Month
T

V

S
a
l
e
s
TV Sales
CD Sales
CD Sales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
147
1
0
1
3
1
6
1
9
2
2
Month
C
D

S
a
l
e
s
CD Sales
AC Sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
A
C

S
a
l
e
s

Month
AC Sales
AC Sales
Moving Average Method
Time series that fluctuates about a constant
base level
F
t,1

Forecast for period t + 1made after observing x
t
F
t,1
= Average of last N observations
= average of x
t
, x
t-1
, x
t-2
, , x
t-N+1
Moving Average Method
Calculations
Month TV Sales MAF (N = 2) Error MAF (N = 3) Error MAF (N = 4) Error MAF (N = 5) Error MAF (N = 6) Error
1 30
2 32
3 30 31 1
4 39 31 8 30.67 8.33
5 33 34.5 1.5 33.67 0.67 32.75 0.25
6 34 36 2 34.00 0.00 33.50 0.50 32.80 1.20
7 34 33.5 0.5 35.33 1.33 34.00 0.00 33.60 0.40 33.00 1.00
8 38 34 4 33.67 4.33 35.00 3.00 34.00 4.00 33.67 4.33
9 36 36 0 35.33 0.67 34.75 1.25 35.60 0.40 34.67 1.33
10 39 37 2 36.00 3.00 35.50 3.50 35.00 4.00 35.67 3.33
11 30 37.5 7.5 37.67 7.67 36.75 6.75 36.20 6.20 35.67 5.67
12 36 34.5 1.5 35.00 1.00 35.75 0.25 35.40 0.60 35.17 0.83
13 38 33 5 35.00 3.00 35.25 2.75 35.80 2.20 35.50 2.50
14 30 37 7 34.67 4.67 35.75 5.75 35.80 5.80 36.17 6.17
15 35 34 1 34.67 0.33 33.50 1.50 34.60 0.40 34.83 0.17
16 30 32.5 2.5 34.33 4.33 34.75 4.75 33.80 3.80 34.67 4.67
17 34 32.5 1.5 31.67 2.33 33.25 0.75 33.80 0.20 33.17 0.83
18 40 32 8 33.00 7.00 32.25 7.75 33.40 6.60 33.83 6.17
19 36 37 1 34.67 1.33 34.75 1.25 33.80 2.20 34.50 1.50
20 32 38 6 36.67 4.67 35.00 3.00 35.00 3.00 34.17 2.17
21 40 34 6 36.00 4.00 35.50 4.50 34.40 5.60 34.50 5.50
22 36 36 0 36.00 0.00 37.00 1.00 36.40 0.40 35.33 0.67
23 40 38 2 36.00 4.00 36.00 4.00 36.80 3.20 36.33 3.67
24 34 38 4 38.67 4.67 37.00 3.00 36.80 2.80 37.33 3.33
Moving Average Method
N MAD
2 3.27
3 3.21
4 2.78
5 2.79
6 3.08
Simple Exponential Smoothing
A time series that fluctuates about a base
level
A
t
= x
t
+ (1 ) A
t-1
A
0
= 32
= 0.1

Simple Exponential Smoothing
Calculations
Month TV Sales Forecast At et
1 30 32 31.8 2.00
2 32 31.8 31.82 0.20
3 30 31.82 31.64 1.82
4 39 31.64 32.37 7.36
5 33 32.37 32.44 0.63
6 34 32.44 32.59 1.56
7 34 32.59 32.73 1.41
8 38 32.73 33.26 5.27
9 36 33.26 33.53 2.74
10 39 33.53 34.08 5.47
11 30 34.08 33.67 4.08
12 36 33.67 33.91 2.33
13 38 33.91 34.32 4.09
14 30 34.32 33.88 4.32
15 35 33.88 34.00 1.12
16 30 34.00 33.60 4.00
17 34 33.60 33.64 0.40
18 40 33.64 34.27 6.36
19 36 34.27 34.45 1.73
20 32 34.45 34.20 2.45
21 40 34.20 34.78 5.80
22 36 34.78 34.90 1.22
23 40 34.90 35.41 5.10
24 34 35.41 35.27 1.41
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Alpha MAD
0.05 3.20
0.1 3.04
0.15 2.94
0.2 2.89
0.25 2.88
0.3 2.90
0.35 2.94
0.4 2.98
0.45 3.05
0.5 3.14
Simple Exponential Smoothing
some concepts
If = 2/(N + 1)
Equivalent to N-period moving average
Larger the value of
More weight is given to the most recent
observations
= 0.2?
= 0.5?

Holts Method: Exponential
Smoothing with Trend
Base Level at the end of t
th
period = L
t
The per-period trend at the end of t
th
period = T
t
For e.g., if L
20
= 20 and T
20
= 2. Implication?
L
t
= x
t
+ (1 ) (L
t-1
+ T
t-1
)
T
t
= (L
t
- L
t-1
) + (1 ) T
t-1
F
t,k
= L
t
+ k * T
t
T
0
= average monthly increase in the time series
during the previous year
L
0
= Last months observation



Holts Method Calculations
Let, the CD sales during each of the last 12
months are given by 4, 6, 8, 10, 14, 18, 20,
22, 24, 28, 31, 34.
T
0
= [(6 - 4) + (8 6) + (10 8) + + (34 31)]/11 = 2.73
L
0
= 34
= 0.3
= 0.1

Holts Method Calculations
Month CD Sales Lt Tt ft-1,1 et
1 40 37.71 2.83 36.73 3.27
2 47 42.47 3.02 40.53 6.47
3 50 46.85 3.15 45.49 4.51
4 49 49.70 3.12 50.00 1.00
5 56 53.78 3.22 52.82 3.18
6 53 55.80 3.10 57.00 4.00
7 55 57.73 2.98 58.90 3.90
8 63 61.40 3.05 60.71 2.29
9 68 65.51 3.16 64.45 3.55
10 65 67.57 3.05 68.67 3.67
11 72 71.03 3.09 70.62 1.38
12 69 72.59 2.94 74.12 5.12
13 79 76.57 3.04 75.52 3.48
14 82 80.32 3.11 79.61 2.39
15 80 82.40 3.01 83.44 3.44
16 85 85.29 3.00 85.41 0.41
17 94 90.00 3.17 88.29 5.71
18 89 91.92 3.04 93.17 4.17
19 96 95.27 3.07 94.96 1.04
20 100 98.84 3.12 98.35 1.65
21 100 101.38 3.06 101.97 1.97
22 105 104.61 3.08 104.44 0.56
23 108 107.78 3.09 107.69 0.31
24 110 110.61 3.06 110.87 0.87
Choice of &
Beta
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0.1 2.86 2.80 2.74 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.83 2.86 2.92
0.2 2.77 2.73 2.76 2.79 2.84 2.92 2.97 2.98 2.99
0.3 2.85 2.87 2.91 2.95 2.99 3.04 3.13 3.22 3.29
Alpha 0.4 2.96 3.00 3.05 3.11 3.17 3.23 3.30 3.35 3.39
0.5 3.07 3.13 3.19 3.25 3.31 3.36 3.43 3.50 3.58
0.6 3.19 3.26 3.33 3.40 3.48 3.59 3.69 3.78 3.88
0.7 3.32 3.39 3.47 3.60 3.72 3.84 3.95 4.07 4.21
0.8 3.43 3.53 3.67 3.81 3.94 4.07 4.27 4.47 4.68
0.9 3.54 3.69 3.85 4.02 4.23 4.46 4.69 4.95 5.25
Winters Method
c = number of periods in the length of the seasonal
pattern
c = 4 for quarterly data; c = 12 for monthly data.
s
t
= seasonal multiplicative factor for month t,
obtained after observing x
t
.
Month 7 is July and s
7
= 2 (lets say!)
After observing months 7 air conditioner sales, we
believe that Julys air conditioner sales will (all other
things being equal)
Equal twice the sales expected during an average month.
If month 24 is December and s
24
= 0.4, what will be the
implication?
Winters Method
L
t
= (x
t
/s
t-c
) + (1 ) (L
t-1
+ T
t-1
)
T
t
= (L
t
- L
t-1
) + (1 ) T
t-1
s
t
= (x
t
/L
t
) + (1 ) s
t-c
f
t,k
= (L
t
+ k * T
t
) * S
t+k-c

Initialization of Winters Method
L
0
= estimate of base at beginning of month 1
T
0
= estimate of trend at beginning of month 1
S
-11
= estimate of January seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1
S
-10
= estimate of February seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1
.
S
0
= estimate of December seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1.

Initialization of Winters Method
Variety of methods are available to estimate
above parameters
A simple approach:
Suppose we have two years of data
Year 2: 4, 3, 10, 14, 25, 26, 38, 40, 28, 17, 16, 13
Year 1: 9, 6, 18, 27, 48, 50, 75, 77, 52, 33, 31, 24
Total sales during year 2 = 234
Total sales during year 1 = 450

Initialization of Winters Method
T
0
= [(Avg. monthly sales during year 1) (Avg.
monthly sales during year 2)]/12
T
0
= 1.5
L
0
= Avg. monthly demand during year 1.
Further correction
This estimates the base at the middle of the year 1
Month 6.5 of year 1
Hence, to bring this estimate to the end of the year
Add, (12 6.5)T
0
= 5.5T
0

L
0
= 37.5 + 5.5(1.5) = 45.75
Initialization of Winters Method
To estimate the seasonality factor for a
given month (say, January = s
-11
)
we take an estimate of January seasonality of
year 2 and year 1 and average them.
In year 2, average monthly demand = 19.5
In January of year 2, number of ACs sold = 4
Therefore, s
-11
= [(4/19.5) + (9/37.5)]/2 = 0.22

Initialization of Winters Method
s
-10
= 0.16, .., s
0
= 0.65
Observation
Sum of initial seasonal factor estimates should
average to 1
At the beginning of month 1, our forecast
for month 1 AC sales is
f
0,1
= (L
0
+ T
0
)s
0+1-12
= (45.75 + 1.5)0.22 = 10.40
Initialization of Winters Method
At the beginning of month 1, our forecast
for month 7 AC sales is
f
0,7
= (L
0
+ 7T
0
)s
0+7-12
= (45.75 + 7 *1.5) 1.97 = 110.81
For
= 0.5
= 0.4
= 0.6

Winters Method for Air-
Conditioners
Month Sales Lt Tt st ft-1,1 Error
1 13 52.83 3.73 0.24 10.52 2.48
2 7 50.58 1.34 0.15 8.88 1.88
3 23 49.13 0.22 0.48 25.78 2.78
4 32 46.93 -0.75 0.70 35.48 3.48
5 58 45.73 -0.93 1.27 59.16 1.16
6 60 44.90 -0.89 1.34 59.74 0.26
7 90 44.80 -0.57 2.00 86.90 3.10
8 93 44.77 -0.36 2.07 90.76 2.24
9 63 44.53 -0.31 1.41 62.68 0.32
10 39 44.37 -0.25 0.88 38.73 0.27
11 37 44.52 -0.09 0.83 36.34 0.66
12 29 44.41 -0.10 0.65 29.03 0.03
Some Final Thoughts
Indian Contexts
Businesses uses Gregorian calendar
Most of the festivals uses lunar calendar
festivals (Diwali, Eid, Chinese festival ) occur in
different weeks or months
Inauspicious periods