Chapter 5

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
AND
PROBABILITY
Basic Probability Concepts:
Random Experiments
Sample Space
Sample Point
Event
Null Event
Simple Event
Compound Event
Mutually Exclusive Events/Disjoint Events
Venn Diagrams



Random Experiment
-Any process of generating a set of data or
observations that can be repeated under
basically the same conditions, which lead to well
defined outcomes.
-Any process that can be repeated in which the
results are uncertain.


e.g. tossing a coin

rolling a pair of dice

drawing a card from a deck
Head
Tail
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical
experiment and is represented by the symbol S
e.g. tossing a coin
Head Tail
S = { H, T}
2 possible outcomes
Sample Space
Collection of all Possible Outcomes
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:


e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
S = { all 52 cards }
Sample Space
Suppose that 3 items are selected at random
from a manufacturing process. Each item is
inspected and classified defective D, or non-
defective N
Sample Space
Suppose that 3 items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each
item is inspected and classified defective D, or non-defective N
1
st
Item 2
nd
Item
3
rd
Item Sample Space
D
N
D
N
D
N
D
N
D
N
D
N
D
N
DDD
DDN
DND
DNN
NDD
NDN
NND
NNN
Tree Diagram
S = { DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN }
Sample Space
Sample space with large or infinite number of
sample points are best described by a statement
or rule
S = { x | x is a city with a population over 1 million }
Example
S is the set of all x such that x is a city with a
population over 1 million
Sample Space
If S is the set of all points (x, y) on the boundary of
the circle of radius 2 centered at the origin.
S = { (x , y) | x
2
+ y
2
= 4}
r = 2
Sample Point
-An element of the sample space.
-An outcome.
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 }
Sample points/outcomes
Event
An Event is a subset of a sample space
denoted by capital letters
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 }
Event A = { 1, 3, 5 }
Event B = { 2, 4 }
Event C = { 5 }
Events
Simple Event: An event which contains only one
element in the sample space.
e.g.
Joint or Compound Event: An event which can
be expressed as a union of simple events, thus
containing more than one sample point.
e.g.

Event C = { 5 }
Event A = { 1, 3, 5 }
Event B = { 2, 4 }


Special Events
Null Event
Club & Diamond on
1 Card Draw
Complement of Event
For Event A,
All Events Not In A: A
Null Event
We can combine events to form new events
using the various sets of operation

B A
B A
Is the event that occurs if A occurs
or B occurs (or both)
Is the event that occurs if A occurs
and B
c
A
The complement of A, is the event
that occurs if A does not occur.
Operations With Events
Operations With Events
I ntersection of Events:
The intersection of two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A B , is the
event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.
B A
Operations With Events
Example:
Let A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and B={ 2, 4, 6, 8}; then

A B = ?


A B = { 2, 4}

Operations With Events
Example:
Let P = { a, e, i, o, u} and Q = { r, s, t}; then

P Q = ?


P Q = { }=

Operations With Events
Mutually Exclusive Events:
Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive if A B = : that is A and B
have no elements in common.
Two events A and B are called mutually
exclusive if they are disjoint
Event
A
Event
B
| = B A
Operations With Events
Operations With Events
Example (Mutually Exclusive Events):

Supposed that a die is tossed. Let A be the
event that an even number turns up and B
the event that an odd number shows.
A B =
A = { 2, 4, 6} and B= { 1, 3, 5}
Events A and B are mutually exclusive
Operations With Events
Union of Events:
The union of two events A and B, denoted by
the symbol A U B , is the event containing all
elements that belongs to A or to B or to both
Operations With Events
Union of Events:
Example
Let A = { 2, 3, 5, 8} and B={ 3, 6, 8}; then

A U B = ?

A U B = { 2, 3, 5, 6, 8}
Operations With Events
Union of Events:
Example
Let M = {x | 3 < x < 9} and N = {y | 5 < y < 12}
then

M U N = ?

M U N = {z | 3 < z < 12}
Operations With Events
Complement of an Event:
The complement of an event A with respect to
S is the set of all elements of S that are not in
A. We denote the complement of A by the
symbol A.
Operations With Events
Complement of an Event:
Example
Let R be the event that a red card is selected
from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards
and let S be the entire deck.
R = event that the card selected from the
deck is not red but a black card
Counting Sample Points
Multiplication Rule:
If an operation can be performed in n
1
ways,
and for each of these a second operation can
be performed in n
2
ways, then two operations
can be performed together in n
1
n
2
ways
Counting Sample Points
Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many sample points are in the sample
space when a pair of dice is thrown once?
Counting Sample Points
Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many sample points are in the sample space when a
pair of dice is thrown once?
Solution
1st die 6 ways
2nd die 6 ways
(6)(6) = 36 ways
Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule:
If an operation can be performed in n
1
ways,
and for each of these a second operation can
be performed in n
2
ways, if for each of the
first two a third operation can be performed
in n
3
ways, and so on, then the sequence of k
operations can be performed in n
1
n
2
..n
k

ways
Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many lunches are possible consisting of
soup, a sandwich, dessert, and a drink if one
can select from 4 soups, 3 kinds of sandwiches,
5 deserts, and 4 drinks?
Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many lunches are possible consisting of soup, a sandwich,
dessert, and a drink if one can select from 4 soups, 3 kinds of
sandwiches, 5 deserts, and 4 drinks?
Solution
(4)(3)(5)(4) = 240 lunches
Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many even three-digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9. if each
digit can be used only once?
Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule:
Example
How many even three-digit numbers can be formed from the
digits 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9. if each digit can be used only once?
Solution
(2)(4)(3) = 24 even three-digit numbers
Counting Sample Points
PERMUTATI ON:
A Permutation is an arrangement of all or
part of a set of objects.
Counting Sample Points
Theorem 1
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects is n!
Permutation:
Counting Sample Points
Permutation:
Consider the three letters, a, b, c
Possible permutations are:
abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
Example
Counting Sample Points
Example
The number of permutations of the four
letters a, b, c, and d
4! = (4)(3)(2)(1) = 24
Counting Sample Points
Theorem 2
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is
)! (
!
r n
n
P
r n

=
Permutation:
Counting Sample Points
Example 1
The number of permutations of the four
letters a, b, c, and d taken 2 at a time
ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, ba, cd, ca, cb, da, db, dc
(4)(3) = 12
Counting Sample Points
Example 2
Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20
for the first and second prizes. Find the
number of sample points in the space S.
Counting Sample Points
Example
)! 2 20 (
! 20
2 20

= P
Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for the first and
second prizes. Find the number of sample points in the
space S.
Solution
! 18
! 18 ) 19 )( 20 (
=
380 ) 19 )( 20 ( = =
Counting Sample Points
Theorem 3
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects arranged in a circle is
)! 1 ( n
Permutation:
Counting Sample Points
Theorem 3
Example: In how many ways can Cale,
Anna, Jen, and Karla be arranged in a
circular table?
Solution:
6 1 . 2 . 3 ! 3 )! 1 4 ( )! 1 ( = = = = n
Counting Sample Points
Theorem 4
The number of distinct permutations of
n things of which n
1
are of one kind, n
2
of
a second kind .. n
k
of kth kind is
! ! !
!
2 1 k
n n n
n
- - -
Permutation:
Counting Sample Points
Example
How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow,
and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of
Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
Counting Sample Points
Example
How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs
be arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
Solution
1260
! 2 ! 3 ! 4
! 9
=
Counting Sample Points
COMBI NATI ON
The number of combinations of n objects
taken r at a time is
)! ( !
!
r n r
n
r
n

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
Counting Sample Points
Example 1
Je, Roy, Fe, and Al are going to play golf.
They will randomly select teams of two
players each.

a. How many team combinations are possible?
b. List them.
Counting Sample Points
Example 2
From 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats
find the number of committees of 3 that
can be formed with 2 republicans and 1
Democrats?
Counting Sample Points
Example
From 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats find the number
of committees of 3 that can be formed with 2
republicans and 1 Democrats?
Solution
6
! 2 ! 2
! 4
=
3
! 2 ! 1
! 3
=
Republicans Democrats
18 ) 3 )( 6 ( =
PROBABILITY
Probability is the numerical
measure of the likelihood
that the event will occur.
Value is between 0 and 1.
Sum of the probabilities of
all mutually exclusive
events is 1.
Certain
Impossible
.5
1
0
As the number of repetitions of a
probability experiment increases, the
proportion with which a certain
outcome is observed gets closer to the
probability of the outcome.

The Law of Large Numbers
Historically, Probability began with the study of
games of chance
The probability p on event A
p =P(A) =
n(S)
n(A)
If A can occur in n(A)
ways out of a total of n(S)
equally likely ways, then
Probability
If an experiment can result in any one of
n(S) different equally likely outcomes and if
exactly n(A) of these outcomes correspond to
event A, then the probability of event A is
) (
) (
) (
S n
A n
A P =
Computing Probability Using Classical Approach
(Assuming Equally Likely Outcomes)
The study of random or nondeterministic
experiments
Computing Probability using
Relative Frequency Approach
Let s = number of successes

Let n = number of tosses

n
s
f =
relative frequency
stable in the long run
basis of probability theory
Example, in tossing a die an even number
can occur 3 ways out of 6 equally likely
ways
P =
6
3
=
2
1
Probability
3 even numbers
Let E be any event, S be the sample
space, and be a null event,
1. 0 P(E) 1
2. P( ) =0
3. P( S) = 1
4. If S = { e1, e2,en} =
P(e1)+P(e2)++P(en) =P(S)=1

PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY
Example
A coin is tossed twice. What is the
probability that at least 1 head occurs?
Computing Probability
Example
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at
least 1 head occurs?
Computing Probability
Solution
S={HH, HT, TH, TT}
A={at least 1 head}
A={HH, HT, TH }
P(A)= + + = 3/4
1w 1w 1w 1w
P(S)=1, P(S)=4w
w = 1/4
Example
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck,
find the probability that it is a heart
Computing Probability
Example
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the
probability that it is a heart
Computing Probability
Solution
S={52 cards}, n(S)=52
A={heart}, n (A)= 13
4
1
52
13
) (
) (
) ( = = =
S n
A n
A P
Example
In a poker hand consisting 5 cards, find the
probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Computing Probability
Example In a poker hand consisting 5 cards, find the probability
of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Computing Probability
Solution
960 , 598 , 2
! 47 ! 5
! 52
)! 5 52 ( ! 5
! 52
5
52
) (
5 52
= =

= =
|
|
.
|

\
|
= C S n
6
! 2 ! 2
! 4
)! 2 4 ( ! 2
! 4
2
4
) (
2 4 1
= =

= =
|
|
.
|

\
|
= C A n
4
! 1 ! 3
! 4
)! 3 4 ( ! 3
! 4
3
4
) (
3 4 2
= =

= =
|
|
.
|

\
|
= C A n
5
2 1
10 9 . 0 000009234 . 0
960 , 598 , 2
) 4 )( 6 (
) (
) ( ) (
) (

= = =

=
S n
A n A n
A P
) ( ) ( ) (
2 1
A n A n A n =
Theorem 4.10 (Additive Rule)
If A and B are any two events, then
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( B A P B P A P B A P + =
Computing Probability
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
) ( ) ( ) ( B P A P B A P + =
Theorem 4.10 (Additive Rule) continued
If A
1
, A
2
, .. A
k
are mutually exclusive,
then
) ( .... ) ( ) ( ) ....... (
2 1 2 1 k k
A P A P A P A A A P + + + =
Computing Probability
Example
The probability that a student passes
mathematics is 2/3, and the probability that
he passes English is 4/9. If the probability of
passing at least one course is 4/5, what is the
probability that he will pass both courses?
Computing Probability
Example
The probability that a student passes mathematics is 2/3,
and the probability that he passes English is 4/9. If the
probability of passing at least one course is 4/5, what is the
probability that he will pass both courses?
Computing Probability
Solution
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( E M P E P M P E M P + =
5 / 4 9 / 4 3 / 2 + =
45 / 14 =
? ) ( = E M P
3 / 2 ) ( = M P
9 / 4 ) ( = E P
5 / 4 ) ( = E M P Given:
Additive Rule:
Example
What is the probability of getting a total of 7
or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed?
Computing Probability
Example
What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a
pair of dice is tossed?
Computing Probability
Solution
? ) ( = B A P
P(A) = getting a total of 7
P(B) = getting a total of 11
) ( ) ( ) ( B P A P B A P + =
6
1
36
6
) ( = = A P
18
1
36
2
) ( = = B P
9
2
18
1
6
1
= + =
Theorem 4.11
If A and A are complementary events, then
1 ) ' ( ) ( = + A P A P
Computing Probability
Example
A coin is tossed 6 times in succession. What is
the probability that at least 1 head occurs?
Computing Probability
Example
A coin is tossed 6 times in succession. What is the
probability that at least 1 head occurs?
Computing Probability
Solution
Let E = {at least 1 head}
N = (2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2) = 2
6
=64
E = {no head}
= {TTTTTT}
1 ) ' ( ) ( = + E P E P
P(E) = 1/64
) ' ( 1 ) ( E P E P =
64
63
64
1
1 ) ( = = E P
Summary
Discussed Basic Probability Concepts:
Sample Spaces and Events, Counting Sample Points, Simple
Probability
1. According to the Filipino Veterinary Association, 31.6% of the
Filipino households own a dog. What is the probability that a
randomly selected household does not own a dog?

2. A newly wed couple is choosing where they would spend their
honeymoon. Due to the peak season, the probability that they
can book to a hotel in Palawan is 0.45 and to Boracay is 0.4 and
the probability that they can book a hotel in both places is 0.3.
What is the probability that they can book to a hotel in Palawan
or Boracay?

3. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5
novels, 3 books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the
probability that
a) The dictionary is selected
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?





What is the probability that they can book to a
hotel in Palawan or Boracay?

ASSIGNMENT:
6. A 5-sided die with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and
5 is constructed so that the 1 and 5 occur twice as
often as the 2 and 4, which occur three times as
often as the 3. What is the probability that a perfect
square occurs when this die is tossed once?