INFERENTIAL ANAYSIS

AND INTERPRETATION
TASK 1
THEORITICAL DISTRIBUTION,
CONVIDENCE INTERVAL, AND AREA
UNDER NORMAL CURVE
PROBABILITY
Definition
The chance of a given event occurring
If D is code for anemia and P(D) is the probability
of anemia among pregnant women. Suppose from
n sample of pregnant women we found x anemia,
so the probability of anemia among pregnant
women is P(D) = x/n
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Definition
A and B are mutually exclusive events if A
and B never occur together
Head and Tail of Coin are two mutually
events
COMPLEMENTARY EVENT
Definition
A and B are complementary event if the
probability A occurs [P(A)] + the probability
B occurs [P(B)] equal to 1.
Having the A disease and not having the
A disease are two complementary events ,
therefore: P(A) + P(non-A) = 1
Conditional Probability
Definition
Probability of an Event occur, given that
another event has occurred
D = HIV/AIDS ; N = IDU
P(D|N) = prob of HIV/AIDS among IDU
HIV/AIDS IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 10 60
- 50 90 140
Total 100 100 200
P(D|N) = 50/100
Joint Probability
Definition
The probability of event A and B occur
together or P(A and B)
D = HIV/AIDS ; N = IDU
P(D and N) = 50/200
HIV/AIDS IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 10 60
- 50 90 140
Total 100 100 200
Additional Rule
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the
probability of A or B occur is equal to the sum
of their probabilities
P(Bali or WNA) = P(Bali) + P(WNA) = 0,70
MHS Jumlah %
Bali 100 0,50
Non Bali 60 0,30
WNA 40 0,20
Total 200 100
Multiplication Rule
P(HIV and IDU) = P(HIV) x P(IDU)
=100/200 x 100/200 = 1/4
HIV IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 50 100
- 50 50 100
Total 100 100 200
If A and B are independent events, the probability
of A and B occur is equal to the product of the
probability of each.
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
Probability Distribution
Continues data
1. Normal distribution
2. t distribution
3. F distribution
4. Chi Square distri.
Discrete Data
1. Binomial
2. Poison
DISTRIBUSI NORMAL DISTRIBUSI - t
DISTRIBUSI F DISTRIBUSI CHI-SQUARE
Normal Distribution
the most important distribution in statistics
Definition:
The probability distribution function of X



Ciri:
1. Symetrical bell shape
2. Mean=Md=Mo
3. Mean 1SD = 68%,
Mean 1,96 SD = 95%,
Mean 2,57 SD = 99%

_
X
M1SD
M1,96SD
M2,57SD
2 2
2 / ) (
2
1

X
e X
Area under the curve of normal
distribution

Mean 1SD = 68%
Mean 1,96 SD = 95%
Mean 2,57 SD = 99%

_
X
M1SD
M1,96SD
M2,57SD
Sampling Distribution
Definition
Distribution of mean, mean different,
proportion or proportion different of
samples
Charactristic of sampling
distribution of mean
If the number of sample big enough, Mean
or mean different of samples will follow a
normal distribution (Central Limit
Theorem)
If the data follow a normal distribution, the
mean or mean different will also follow a
normal distribution
The variation of mean or mean different
will be measured by Standard Error of
Mean (SEM = SD/n)
Confidence Interval (CI)
Definition
Interval Estimate of population parameter such
as mean, proportion, etc

Confidence limit
CI has two limit: Lower and Upper limit

_
X
Mean 1,96SE
Mean2,57SE
LL UL
Indication
Correlation is a statistical method for
analysing the association between
variable X and Y
X (UMUR) Y (TINGGI)
CORRELATION
r=1
0<r<1
* *
* *
* *
* * *
r=0
r= -1 0<r<-1
Scatter Diagram
Symbol : r
Value : lies between -1 and +1
Magnitude: the strength and direction of
association
Interpretation
r = +1 : positive perfect association
r = - 1 : negative perfect association
r = 0 : no association
0< r <0.6 : mild association
r 0. 6 : strong association
Correlation Coefficient