R Computing Training Kit

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) :
Governments concluded that there was a need
for an impartial and independent body to
address this issue, leading to the creation of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) in 1988.

2
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Leading body for the
assessment of climate
change
Established in 1988 by
UNEP and WMO
Assesses relevant
scientific, technical and
socio-economic
information
Does not conduct any
research itself
Thousands of scientists
from all over the world
contribute to its work
3

Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

The IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5)
4
The IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) contains
contributions from three Working Groups.
Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change.
Working Group II assesses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
Working Group III assesses options for the mitigation of climate
change (Summary for Policymakers, a Technical Summary, 16 chapters, and
three Annexes; options for mitigating climate change and their underlying
technological, economic and institutional requirements )
The Synthesis Report draws on the assessments made by all
three Working Groups.

5
6
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
International environmental treaty negotiated at
the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development (UNCED)
to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system
Signed in 1992 in Rio and entered into force in
1994
Currently has 195 Parties, including 194 states
and 1regional organization

7
8
The Physical Science Basis

Observed Changes in the Climate System

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to
millennia.
The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the
amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea
level has risen, and the concentrations of
greenhouse gases have increased.

Drivers of Climate Change

Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led
to an uptake of energy by the climate system.
The largest contribution to total radiative
forcing is caused by the increase in the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.

Understanding the Climate System and its
Recent Changes

Human influence on the climate system is
clear. This is evident from the increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere, positive radiative forcing,
observed warming, and understanding of the
climate system.

Future Global and Regional Climate Change

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will
cause further warming and changes in all
components of the climate system. Limiting
climate change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions.

Overview
OVERVIEW
Section 1

Introduction to
Climate Change
Science

Section 2

Anthropogenic
Drivers of Climate
Change

Section 3

Observed Trends
and Impacts of
Climate Change

Section 4

Projected Trends
and Impacts of
Climate Change

Section 5

Sources of
Scientific Data
13
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Introduction to Climate Change
Science

Section 1

14


What Is Climate?
Weather
What is happening
in the atmosphere
at any given time
Climate
Average weather
over longer time
frames
15

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Source: World Meteorological Organization
Complexity of the Global
Climate System

16


Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO Website

What Is the Greenhouse Effect?
17


Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website
NASA Video on the
Greenhouse Effect
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk


18
Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon
dioxide, and other gases cause the Earths
greenhouse effect
Factors Shaping the Climate
Climate Forcings
19


Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center
Natural Climate Fluctuations
Example of El Nio and La Nia
20


Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website
Climate Change and Global Warming
Global Warming
Refers to the overall
warming of the planet,
based on average
temperature over the entire
surface of the Earth
Climate Change
Refers to changes in climate
characteristics, including
temperature, humidity,
rainfall, wind, and severe
weather events over long
term periods
21


Further information: WMO Website
Observed Change in Surface
Temperature (19012012)
22
Source:
Source: IPCC 2013, p4


Tools to Predict and Project Changes in the
Climate
A climate prediction or climate forecast is an attempt to produce an estimate of the
actual evolution of the climate in the future.
Climate Prediction
Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and land cover,
provide inputs to climate models.
Emissions Scenario
A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and
biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and
accounting for some of its known properties.
Climate Model
A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of future
emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived using
climate models.
Climate Projection
23


Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website
Projected Change in Average Surface
Temperature
24
Scenario RCP 8.5 Scenario RCP 2.6


Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
Climate Change Has an Impact on:
Biodiversity, carbon storage, habitats,
Ecosystems
Agriculture, fresh water, health,
Human systems
Transport, buildings, lifestyle,
Urban systems
Energy, manufacturing, natural capital
industries,
Economic systems
Equity, migration, peace and conflict,
Social systems
25


Climate Change Science Allows Us to:

Understand how and
why the climate is
changing
Assess how humans
are influencing the
climate
Project how the
climate may change in
the future
Support
policy/decision-making
and changes in
behaviors

26


Source: National Science Foundation
Photo Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr
Why is Climate Change Science Important?
Sound weather data and forecasts
important for:
Short-term planning
Emergency response
Climate models help to forecast long
term climate scenarios
Important input for vulnerability assessments and adaptation
planning
Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-adaption

27


History of Climate Change Science
Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be
augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere
1824
Indication that CO
2
and H
2
O can cause changes in the climate 1861
First proposal of the idea of a man-made greenhouse effect 1895
Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO
2
concentration resulted
in an increase in the mean global temperature of 2C
1938
Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle science 1950s
The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO
2

concentration
1958
Other greenhouse gases widely recognised 1970s
The first World Climate Conference in Geneva 1979
Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
1988
The first IPCC report 1990
28


Further information: BBC Website

Anthropogenic Drivers of
Climate Change

Section 2

29


IPCC Video on the Human
Influence on the Climate System
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be
Video: The video summarizes the main findings of the
2013 IPCC Report on the physical science basis of
climate change.
30

Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Overview of Greenhouse Gases Regulated
under the Kyoto Protocol
31
Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential
(GWP) (over 100 years)
% of Total Anthropogenic
GHG Emissions (2010)
Carbon dioxide (CO
2
) 1 76%
Methane (CH
4
) 25 16%
Nitrous oxide (N
2
O) 298 6%
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 124-14,800 < 2%
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7,390-12,200 < 2%
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF
6
) 22,800 < 2%
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF
3
) 17,200 < 2%
Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012


Important Greenhouse Gases:
Carbon Dioxide (CO
2
)
Most important greenhouse gas
(contributes ~64% to total radiative forcing
by long-lived GHGs)
Half of CO
2
emitted by human activities is
being absorbed in the biosphere and in the
oceans
Rest remains in the atmosphere for
hundreds to thousands of years
32
Source: WMO 2013


CO
2
Concentration in the Atmosphere
and Annual Growth Rates
33
Source: WMO 2013


Since 1750
CO
2
concentration in the
atmosphere has
increased by 40%.
Methane (CH
4
)
Second most significant greenhouse gas
(contributes ~18% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Approximately 40% of methane is
emitted into the atmosphere by natural
sources
About 60% comes from human
activities
Stays in the atmosphere for
approximately 12 years

34


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

CH
4
Concentration in the Atmosphere
and Annual Growth Rates
35


Source: WMO 2013
Since 1750
CH
4
atmosphere has
increased by 150%.
In Focus: The Carbon Cycle
36
Source: UNEP


Nitrous Oxide (N
2
O)
The third most significant greenhouse
gas (contributes ~6% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Stays in the atmosphere for
approximately 114 years
Nitrous oxide is emitted into the
atmosphere from both natural (about
60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%)

37


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

N
2
O Concentration in the Atmosphere and
Annual Growth Rates
38


Source: WMO 2013
Since 1750
N
2
O

atmosphere has
increased by 20%.
Fluorinated Gases
Global warming effect up to 23,000
times greater than carbon dioxide
Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000
years
Three main groups: hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF
6
)
Mainly developed as substitutes for
ozone-depleting substances
39


Source: IPCC 2007. Further info EPA, EC
Greenhouse Gases Controlled by the
Montreal Protocol
Montreal Protocol aimed to phase
out substances that deplete the
ozone layer
Substances regulated under the
Montreal Protocol are also
powerful greenhouse gases
For example, chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) contribute ~12% to radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs
40


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA Website
Source: EPA

Concentration of SF
6
and Halocarbons
in the Atmosphere
41


Source: WMO 2013
It is extremely likely
that more than 50%
of the warming since
1951 is due to the
increase in
greenhouse gases and
other anthropogenic
forcings together.
Human Influence on the Climate
System
42
Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website


Observed Trends and Impacts of
Climate Change

Section 3

43


Observed Surface Temperature
Anomaly (1850-2012)
44

Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

Globally averaged land and ocean
surface temperature
Each of the last three
decades has been
successively warmer
at the Earths surface
than any preceding
decade since 1850.
Observed Change in Annual Precipitation
Over Land
45

Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate
Change

Observed Ocean Warming
(1950-2010)
46

Change

More than 60% of
the net energy
increase in the
climate system is
stored in the upper
ocean (period
1971-2010).
Observed Ocean Acidification
47

Change

Observed Sea Level Rise
(1900 to 2010)
48

Change

Over the period
1901 to 2010,
global mean sea
level rose by
0.19m.
Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
(1900-2010)
49

Change

Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems
50

Change

Source: UNEP 2009, p13
In Focus: Is Climate Change to Blame for Extreme
Weather Events?
51
Source: UNEP
2009, p12.
Further info:
WMO Website

Change

Year
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

E
v
e
n
t
s

Projected Trends and Impacts of
Climate Change

Section 4

52


In Focus: Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific
community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.
Four RCPs include:
one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level
(RCP2.6),
two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and
one scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions
(RCP8.5).
RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate policies.
53

Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate
Change

Projected Change in Average Surface
Temperature
54
Global surface temperature change for the end of the
21st century is likely to reach 4C if no action is taken.
S
o
u
r
c
e
:

I
P
C
C

2
0
1
3
,

p
1
9

Change

Projected Change in Average Precipitation
55

Change

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
Temperature and Precipitation
Projections for the 21
st
Century
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA
Video: This NASA video shows how temperature
and precipitation patterns could change
throughout the 21st century.

Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

56
Projected Change in Ocean Surface pH
57

Change

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
Projected Sea Level Rise
58

Change

Global mean
sea level will
continue to rise
during the 21st
century.
Projected Northern Hemisphere
September Sea Ice Extent
59

Change

Average 2081-2100
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
in Africa
60


Projected Impacts of Climate Change
in Asia
61

Change

Source: UNEP
2009, p34
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in
Latin America
62


Source: UNEP
2009, p37
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on
Small Islands
Sea level rise exacerbating
inundation, storm surge,
erosion and other coastal
hazards
63


Reduced freshwater
resources
Invasion by non-native
species
Effects on food and income
security
Carbon Crossroads
64
Source: Cambridge
University 2013, p 14

Change

Global Warming by 2100 and Beyond: A
Function of Cumulative CO
2
Emissions
65

Change

Limiting
climate change
will require
substantial and
sustained
reductions of
greenhouse gas
emissions.

Sources of Scientific Data

Section 5

66


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Leading body for the
assessment of climate
change
Established in 1988 by
UNEP and WMO
Assesses relevant
scientific, technical and
socio-economic
information
Does not conduct any
research itself
Thousands of scientists
from all over the world
contribute to its work
67


Important Reports Published by the IPCC
A
s
s
e
s
s
m
e
n
t

R
e
p
o
r
t
s

First
assessment
report (FAR)
Second
assessment
report (SAR)
Third
assessment
report (TAR)
Fourth
assessment
report (AR4)
Fifth
assessment
report (AR5)
S
p
e
c
i
a
l

R
e
p
o
r
t
s

o
n
:

Renewable
energy
sources
Extreme
events and
disasters
Emission
scenarios
Aviation
Carbon
capture and
storage
M
e
t
h
o
d
o
l
o
g
y

R
e
p
o
r
t
s

Guidance for
national
greenhouse
gas
inventories
Guidance for
assessing
impacts of
climate
change
Land use,
land-use
change and
forestry
T
e
c
h
n
i
c
a
l

P
a
p
e
r
s

Climate
change and
water
Implications
of proposed
CO
2

emissions
limitations
Technologies
, policies
and
measures
for
mitigating
climate
change
68


World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) Global Climate Programmes
World Climate Programme (WCP)
World Climate Research Programme
Global Climate Observing System
World Climate Services Programme
Programme of Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP)
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)

69


In Focus: Global Framework for
Climate Services (GFCS)
70
URL: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs


WMO Global Atmosphere Watch:
Measurement Stations Worldwide
71


WMO Regional Climate Centers and
Outlook Forums
WMO Regional
Climate Centres
(RCCs)

WMO Regional
Climate Outlook
Forums (RCOFs)

72


National Climate Data
National Meteorological
and Hydrological
Services (NMHS)
Collect and manage
national climate data to
help with forecasting
and predictions

73
Norfolk Island Meterological Office,
Source: Australian Government: Bureau of
Meteorology


Additional Resources

Annex

74


Summary
Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions between
anthropogenic and natural factors.
Evidence of global climate change include higher average temperatures,
changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea level
rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in physical and biological systems.
Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of greenhouse
gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is
likely to reach 4C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.
Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for
climate change.

75
Useful Links
IPCC Website WMO Climate Pages
Global Framework
For Climate Services
(GFCs)
World Climate
Programme (WCP)
World Bank Climate
Change Knowledge
Portal
NASA Global Climate
Change
ESA Climate Change
Initiative
NCAR Community
Data Portal
Max Planck: The
Atmosphere in the
Earth System
The Guardian
Climate Change
Pages
The National
Geographic - Global
Warming
UN CC:Learn
76


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