A study of

determinants of
plasma retinol and
beta-carotene

Final Project
MAT 456
Autumn 2013
Peter Drogos
Athanasios Siadimas

INDEX
INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
PURPOSE

AND OBJECTIVES
ANALYSIS RESULTS

DESCRIPTIVE
MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

CONCLUSIONS
DISCUSSION

INTRODUCTION
Beta-carotene and retinol are among the most
widely studied compounds in various populations, for
both human plasma concentrations and dietary intake.
This situation dues to their inverse relationship with the
development of several diseases like cancer,
cardiovascular disease and cataracts. This study
examines:
When

beta-carotene is exposed to certain variables,

which levels and factors are affected?
When beta-carotene is exposed to certain variables,
how are these levels are affected?

BACKGROUND
A few studies have suggested that drinking and
smoking habits, dietary intake, gender, and age
influence plasma concentration of carotenoids (like
beta-carotene), and to a lesser extent, the
concentration of retinol.
Previous studies have indicated that if a
persons dietary history show greater consumption
of green or yellow leafy vegetables, which have
more amount of carotene, the intake level of betacarotene is high.
Two basic previous studies are:
the research of Russell-Briefel R, and
the research of Stryker WS

PURPOSE
In this study, we use data from an observational
experiment with 315 patients. In this experiment,
there are totally 14 independent variables,11
numerical and 3 categorical, and we tried to find
out:
Do any of these personal characteristics have an
effect on a persons plasma beta-carotene
levels?

ANALYSIS
The Multiple Regression model:
Research Hypothesis: The factors that affect betacarotene.
Method: We follow a multiple regression model to
find out which variables affect beta-carotene.

ANALYSIS
The descriptive statistics for our study are:
Variable

Label

Mean

Median

Std Dev

Std Error

Skewness

age

Age in years

50.15

48

14.58

0.82

0.3

betadiet

beta-carotene

2185.6

1802

1473.89

83.04

1.61

quetelet

(weight/(height^2))

26.16

24.74

6.01

0.34

1.38

calories

calories consumption

1796.65

1666.8

680.35

38.33

1.75

fat

fat consumption

77.03

72.9

33.83

1.91

1.1

fiber

fiber consumption

12.79

12.1

5.33

0.3

1.15

alcohol

drinks per week

3.28

0.3

12.32

0.69

13.82

cholest

Cholesterol

242.46

206.3

131.99

7.44

1.48

retdiet

retinol consumption

832.71

707

589.29

33.2

4.47

betaplasma

Plasma beta-carotene

189.89

140

183

10.31

3.56

retplasma

Plasma Retinol

602.79

566

208.9

11.77

1.31

ANALYSIS
The categorical variables :
Gender
sex
Male
Female

Frequency

Percent

Cumulative
Frequency

Cumulative
Percent

42

13.33

42

13.33

273

86.67

315

100.00

Smoking status
Frequency

Percent

Cumulative
Frequency

157

49.84

157

49.84

Former

115

36.51

272

86.35

Current

43

13.65

315

100.00

smokstat
Never

Cumulative
Percent

Vitamin Use
vituse
Yes, fairly often
Yes ,not often
No

Frequency
122

Percent
38.73

Cumulative
Frequency
122

Cumulative
Percent
38.73

82

26.03

204

64.76

111

35.24

315

100.00

ANALYSIS
The variable betaplasma:

ANALYSIS
The multiple regression model: Transformations

ANALYSIS
Box Cox Transformation

ANALYSIS
The multiple regression model: Correlation matrix
Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 315
Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0
age
1.00000

quetelet
-0.01746
0.7575

calories
-0.17677
0.0016

fat
-0.16948
0.0025

fiber
0.04485
0.4276

alcohol
0.05158
0.3615

cholest
-0.11361
0.0439

betadiet
0.07187
0.2033

retdiet
-0.00961
0.8651

betaplasma
0.10113
0.0731

retplasma
0.21167
0.0002

quetelet

-0.01746
0.7575

1.00000

0.00353
0.9503

0.04875
0.3885

-0.08762
0.1207

-0.07270
0.1982

0.11026
0.0506

-0.00660
0.9071

0.03206
0.5708

-0.22939
<.0001

0.01314
0.8163

calories

-0.17677
0.0016

0.00353
0.9503

1.00000

0.87184
<.0001

0.46548
<.0001

0.45147
<.0001

0.65918
<.0001

0.24338
<.0001

0.40249
<.0001

-0.02221
0.6946

-0.07333
0.1943

fat

-0.16948
0.0025

0.04875
0.3885

0.87184
<.0001

1.00000

0.27648
<.0001

0.18574
0.0009

0.70985
<.0001

0.14343
0.0108

0.41221
<.0001

-0.09165
0.1045

-0.09094
0.1072

fiber

0.04485
0.4276

-0.08762
0.1207

0.46548
<.0001

0.27648
<.0001

1.00000

-0.02012
0.7221

0.15397
0.0062

0.48264
<.0001

0.21461
0.0001

0.23595
<.0001

-0.04443
0.4320

alcohol

0.05158
0.3615

-0.07270
0.1982

0.45147
<.0001

0.18574
0.0009

-0.02012
0.7221

1.00000

0.18226
0.0012

0.03943
0.4857

0.04495
0.4266

-0.02221
0.6946

0.01714
0.7619

cholest

-0.11361
0.0439

0.11026
0.0506

0.65918
<.0001

0.70985
<.0001

0.15397
0.0062

0.18226
0.0012

1.00000

0.11563
0.0403

0.44344
<.0001

-0.13031
0.0207

-0.07020
0.2140

0.07187
0.2033

-0.00660
0.9071

0.24338
<.0001

0.14343
0.0108

0.48264
<.0001

0.03943
0.4857

0.11563
0.0403

1.00000

0.05287
0.3497

0.22478
<.0001

-0.01354
0.8108

-0.00961
0.8651

0.03206
0.5708

0.40249
<.0001

0.41221
<.0001

0.21461
0.0001

0.04495
0.4266

0.44344
<.0001

0.05287
0.3497

1.00000

-0.04614
0.4145

-0.06280
0.2664

betaplasma

0.10113
0.0731

-0.22939
<.0001

-0.02221
0.6946

-0.09165
0.1045

0.23595
<.0001

-0.02221
0.6946

-0.13031
0.0207

0.22478
<.0001

-0.04614
0.4145

1.00000

0.07158
0.2052

retplasma

0.21167
0.0002

0.01314
0.8163

-0.07333
0.1943

-0.09094
0.1072

-0.04443
0.4320

0.01714
0.7619

-0.07020
0.2140

-0.01354
0.8108

-0.06280
0.2664

0.07158
0.2052

1.00000

age

betadiet
retdiet

ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS
The multiple regression model:
Create dummy variables as
SEX
1
2

MALE
1
0

FEMALE
0
0

SMOKSTAT
1
2
3

SMOK1
1
0
0

SMOK2
0
1
0

VITUSE
1
2
3

VITUSE1
1
0
0

VITUSE2
0
1
0

The female (sex=2) was used as reference level. The

current smokers (smokstat=3) were used as
reference level for smoking status. The people who
didnt take vitamin use (vituse=3), were used as
reference level for vitamin use.

ANALYSIS
The multiple regression model: Results
Parameter Estimates
DF
1

Parameter
Estimate
5.07472

-0.03206

0.00634

-5.06

<.0001

0.17231

0.07807

2.21

0.0281

-0.00018395

0.00006399

-2.87

0.0043

vit1

0.31178

0.08908

3.50

0.0005

vit2

0.26698

0.09699

2.75

0.0063

Variable
Intercept

Label
Intercept

quetelet

(weight/(height^2))

smokenever
calories

calories consumption

Standard t Valu
Error
e
0.24179 20.99

Pr > |t|
<.0001

fiber

fiber consumption

0.03851

0.00812

4.74

<.0001

retplasma

Plasma Retinol

0.00047196

0.00018197

2.59

0.0100

All variables left in the model are significant at the 0.0500 level.

Root MSE

Dependent
Mean
Coeff Var

0.6643 R9 Square
4.9595 Adj R4 Sq
13.396
23

0.228
1
0.210
4

Source
Model

Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Square Mean
DF
s Square
7

Error

306

Corrected Total

313

39.9065
2
135.073
54
174.980
07

5.70093
0.44142

F Value

Pr > F

12.92

<.0001

ANALYSIS
The multiple regression model: Results
FINAL MODEL

The selection method chosen was the STEPWISE

selection method.

ANALYSIS

Checking for Multicollinearity:

Variance Inflation Factor
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Label

DF

Parameter
Estimate

Standard
Error

t Value

Pr > |t|

Variance
Inflation

Intercept

Intercept

5.07472

0.24179

20.99

<.0001

quetelet

(weight/(height^2))

-0.03206

0.00634

-5.06

<.0001

1.03229

0.17231

0.07807

2.21

0.0281

1.08396

-0.00018395

0.00006399

-2.87

0.0043

1.33435

vit1

0.31178

0.08908

3.50

0.0005

1.33702

vit2

0.26698

0.09699

2.75

0.0063

1.29109

smokenever

calories

calories
consumption

fiber

fiber consumption

0.03851

0.00812

4.74

<.0001

1.33318

retplasma

Plasma Retinol

0.00047196

0.00018197

2.59

0.0100

1.01872

DIAGNOSTICS
For the variable betaplasma

For the log(betaplasma)

CONCLUSIONS

The coefficient of 0.031 for the vit1 will show how

much to add and subtract from the predicted
value if the subject take vitamin fairly often. The
vit2 will show how much to add and subtract from
the predicted value if the subject take vitamin not
often. The coefficient of 0.17 for the smokenever
will show how much to add and subtract from the
predicted value if the subject never smoked.
Notice that the dependent variable is NOT
betaplasma but its logarithmic value
Log(betaplasma). For example, a jump from 2.72
to 7.39 of Log(betaplasma) means an 1-unit
increase of betaplasma because the natural
logarithm of 2.72 equals 1 and the natural
logarithm 7.39 equals to 2.
The R square value of 0.2281 indicating that about
the 23% of the variation of the dependent value
can be explained by the variation of the
independent values.

CONCLUSIONS
This present study examined the main research
hypothesis:
by what and how beta- carotene is affected. In
order to do so, we used various statistical tests upon
the data of this study to determine these
hypotheses.
The most important findings of this study given this
specific data set were that:
Beta-carotene is in fact affected by some factors
such as age, sex, smoking habit, quetelet, vitamin
use, consumed calories, fiber, and dietary betacarotene and these variables are statistically
significant on plasma beta-carotene levels.