Mapping the Effects of Natural Disaster on Human Displacement and Migration in Bangladesh: Special Focus on their Spatial Distribution

in Dhaka

Presented by:
A.B.M. Morshedul Hassan (760) 10 th batch Session-2007-2008 Department of Urban and Regional Planning Jahangirnagr University Thesis Supervisor : Sabkat Kamal

Date: 8-9 th January, 2012

Introduction:
Migration to urban areas is a regular phenomenon but disaster induced displacement forced to migrate to cities over the recent years is a matter of concern. Increased frequency and severity of natural disasters over the past recent years are not only displacing people but also exposing to enhanced unplanned urbanization. These natural calamities give influence the disaster affected people to migrate urban areas for shelter and work. Different regions of Bangladesh are under different risks of disaster. Like- the southern part (Barisal, Khulna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barguna etc.) of Bangladesh is in more risk of cyclone, Sea level rise, and salinity problem. Eastern part (Rangpur, Sirajganj, Bogra etc.) is more vulnerable for drought, flood and riverbank erosion. Sylhet is more vulnerable for flash flood. Potential displacement every year due to some natural disasters like erosion (coastal and riverbank erosion), salinity, storm surge and water logging is estimated at 60,000 people, 10,000-15,000 people, 100000-120000 people and 30,000 people respectively (Ahmed and Neelormi, 2008). Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010) Growing number of natural disaster affected people rush to citys areas creates urban crisis. Most of the displaced people living in urban slums are in search of better and secure life. According to International Organization for Migration (IOM), about 70% of slum dwellers in Dhaka experienced some kind of environmental shocks. This migration enhancing unplanned urbanization

Objectives:

1. To identify natural disaster and their effects on human displacement and migration in Bangladesh.

2. To develop maps for natural disasters, human displacement and migration in Bangladesh

3. To explore the present scenario of the migrated people and their spatial distribution of settlements in Dhaka.

Methodology of the Study:

(Source: Prepared by the author, 2011)

Fig 1: The methodology of the study

Log Frame of the Study:

Table no-1: Variable Matrix of the Study
Objectives Parameter Complex Variable
Impacts of disaster

Simple Variable Measuring Unit

Intensity Frequency Damage

Data Source

Collection Method

To identify natural disaster and their effects on human displacement and migration in Bangladesh.

Natural Disaster Scenario

Secondary

CDMP UNP CUS BBS

Displacement

Causes Consequences Migration Decision

Primary

Questionnaire Survey Focus Group Discussion Peoples Interview

To develop maps for natural disasters, human displacement and migration in Bangladesh.

Spatial Mapping

Disaster mapping

Catchment area

Would be Secondary modified as per objective fulfillment

Expert interviews, CDMP, BBS, DMB, CCC, BCAS, CEGIS

Displacement and Migration Mapping

Migration To explore the present Status scenario of the migrated people and their spatial distribution of settlements in Dhaka city. Present Status Spatial distribution

Number of people

Primary

Calculated from population data of Population Census 2001 and 2011 (Preliminary) of BBS Questionnaire survey

Causes When Where

Primary

Natural Disasters in Bangladesh:

Four major natural disasters of Bangladesh are: 1.River Erosion 2. Flood 3. Cyclone 4. Drought

Flood
Floods occur most commonly when water from heavy rainfall, from melting ice and snow, or from a combination of these exceeds the carrying capacity of the river system, lake or ocean into which it runs. Annual monsoon flooding results in the loss of human life, damage to property and communication systems, and a shortage of drinking water. Floods of 1955, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2008 were extensive and devastating. (Banglapedia, 2011)

Table-2: Number of people displaced and areas affected by floods in different time period

Event
1987 flood

Impact
Inundated over 50, 000 sq. km, estimated damage US$ 1 billion, 2,055 deaths Inundated 61% of the country more than 45 million homeless, loss US$ 1.2 billion Inundated 100,000 sq. km., 30 million people homeless, damaged 500,000 homes Inundation 38%, damage US$ 2 billion, affected nearly 3.8 million people Inundated 32,000 sq. km, over 85,000 houses destroyed and damage $1 billion

1988 flood

1998 flood

2004 flood

2007 flood

(Source: Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2009)

(Source: Database of CCC, DoE and modified by the author, 2011)

Natural Disasters in Bangladesh:

Riverbank Erosion
Riverbank Erosion is an endemic and recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh. Every year millions of people of Bangladesh are affected by erosion that destroys standing crops, farmland and homestead land. It is estimated that about 5% or the total floodplain of Bangladesh Is directly affected by erosion. Some researchers have reported that bank erosion is taking place in about 94 out at 489 upazilas of the country. A few other researchers have identified 56 upazilas with incidence of erosion. At present, bank erosion and flood hazards are nearly 100 upazilas have become almost a regular feature. Of these 35 are severely affected. (Source: BBS, 2008)

Table 3 Riverbank Erosion/accretion along the different rivers for the period, 1984-1994
Jamuna Left Bank Erosion Right Rate (m/yr) *100 *84 Ganges -20 56 665 2240 1010 Padma 38 121 620 1800 233 Upper Meghna 7 -9 NA 48 49 Lower Meghna 66 182 824 1172 402

Maximum Bank Erosion *784 Rate (m/yr) Bank Erosion (ha/yr) Bank accretion (ha/yr) *5020 *890

(Source: SVRS, 2008) *Rates derived for the period of 1984-1992 (Source: Database of CCC, DoE and modified by the author, 2011)

Natural Disasters in Bangladesh:

Cyclone The Bay of Bengal is one of the most favorable genesis areas of the tropical cyclones. About one-tenth of the total global cyclones forming in different regions of the tropics occur in the Bay of Bengal. Between 1941 and 2007 35 severe cyclones hit Bangladesh, causing enormous loss of life and property. Population displacement by cyclone is higher. Most of the damage occurs in the coastal regions of Khulna, Patuakhali, Barisal, Noakhali and Chittagong and the offshore island of Bhola, Hatiya, Sandwip, Manpura, Kutubdia, Maheshkhali, Nijhum Dwip, Urir Char and other newly formed islands. (BBS, 2008)

(Source: DMB, 2010)

(Source: Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2009)

Natural Disasters in Bangladesh:

Drought Droughts in Bangladesh are seasonal and can devastate crops, causing hardship to poor agricultural laborers and others who cannot find work. In these areas, monga (unemployment leading to seasonal hunger) is often a problem, especially in the months leading up to the November-December rice harvest. If the crop totally fails because of drought, the situation for poor people can become critical. Droughts most commonly affect the northwestern region, which generally has lower rainfall than the rest of the country. Drought is a major cause of seasonal migration in Bangladesh. (Source: BBS, 2008)

Table 4 Regions Based on Drought Severity Impact Type Very Severe Arial Description About 0.58 million ha in Rajshahi and Nawabganj districts Severe More than 1.7 million ha in Dinjpur, Jessore, Tangail, Bogra, Kushtia and Dhaka districts Moderate About 2.18 million ha in Barisal, Rangpur, Dinjpur, Jessore, Kushtia and Bogra districts (Source: SVRS, 2008)

(Source: Database of CCC, DoE and modified by the author, 2011)

Natural Disaster and their Impacts:

Type of Disaster Areas Affected Occurrence Period Impact

Flood

Floodplains of the Brahmaputra- Jamuna, the Ganges-Padma and the Meghna river system

Loss of agricultural production, disruption of communication and livelihood system, injury, damage and destruction of immobile infrastructure, disruption to essential services, national economic loss, evacuation, and loss of human lives and biodiversity, displacement and sufferings of human population and biodiversity. Loss of agricultural production, disruption of communication and livelihood system, damage and destruction of immobile infrastructure, injury, national economic loss, loss of biodiversity and human lives, need for evacuation and temporary shelter. Loss of land, displacement of human population and livestock, disruption of production, evacuation and loss of property. Major cause of disaster induced migration.

Cyclone & Storm Surge River Erosion

Coastal areas and offshore islands

Banks of the Brahmaputra -Jamuna, the Ganges-Padma and the Meghna river systems

Drought

Northwest region of the country

Loss of agricultural production, stress on national economy and disruption in life style. This is a cause of seasonal migration.

(Source: Bangladesh: state of the environment report, 2001 and modified by the author, 2011)

Impact of Natural Disaster on Human Migration:

1. Loss of agricultural production 2. Structural damage 3. Loss of life 4. Human displacement

1. Loss of property (Living place & Agricultural land

2. Structural damage 3. Human displacement

Pushing
1. Landless & homeless 2. Loan Pressure
3. Lack of work opportunities to maintain livelihood 4. Frequency of affecting by disasters Migration Decision Slum Settlements of big Cities 1. Good work opportunities in city

Flood

Riverbank Erosion

Natural Disaster

Drought

Cyclone

2. Slums for shelter 3. No sufferings by natural disasters 4. Better livelihood

1. Loss of agricultural Production 2. Cause seasonal migration

1. Structural damage 2. Loss of life 3. Loss of agricultural production 4. Human displacement

Pulling
(Source: Prepared by the author, 2011)

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (Flood):

Total Land area: 2.27 sq. km Number of Settlements/ Houses: 95 Number of Shrimp ground: 20

Artificial Canal from River for Shrimp Cultivation

Settlements

Shrimp Ground

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (Flood):

Total Flooded Land area: 2.27 sq. km Number of Flooded Settlements/ Houses: 95 Number of people Displaced: 380 (Approximate) Number of Flooded Shrimp ground: 20 Destroyed 398.40 meter of flood protection Embankment Flooding by Canal water from River

Settlements are under Water

Shrimp Grounds under water

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (Flood):

Weak Flood Protection Embankment for cutting canal

398.40 meter destroyed

Strong force of flood water

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (River Erosion):

Settlements and Agricultural Lands Before Riverbank Erosion

Total Land area: 0.38 sq. km Number of Settlements/ Houses: 28

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (River Erosion):

Eroded Area Eroded Area

Total Eroded Land area: 0.22 sq. km

Eroded Settlements and Agricultural Lands

Total Land area was: 0.38 sq. km Number of Settlements/ Houses Destroyed: 22 Number of Displaced People: 88 Total Eroded Land area: 0.22 sq. km

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (Displacement by Cyclone):

Tin Shade House

Number of Settlements/ Houses: 7

River Connected with Bay of Bengal

Disaster Mapping in Seasonal Satellite image (Displacement by Cyclone):

Destroyed Houses by severe cyclone

River Connected with Bay of Bengal

Number of Destroyed Settlements/ Houses: 7 Number of people Displaced: 22 (Approximate)

Cyclone Wind from South Direction

Disaster Mapping (River Erosion):

Disaster Mapping (Flood) :

Calculation of Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Detail Calculation for Dhaka Division (Same process has been followed for other divisions)
District Population, **Population, Population, **Population, Census Population 2001 (All ages) 2001 (>75 2011 (All ages) 2011 ( 10+ survival (CSR) 2001 (<75 Ages) Ages) ages by multiplying with CSR) Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Per day Migration

Name (I) (II) (III) = II*0.9845

Dhaka Gazipur Manikganj Munshiganj Narayanganj Norsingdi Faridpur Gopalganj Madaripur Rajbari Shariatpur Jamalpur Sherpur Kishorganj Mymensingh Netrakona Tangail Dhaka Division 8618700 2023260 1301900 1289100 2170740 1901840 1742720 1151800 1129940 952280 1080680 2106040 1267940 2557240 4460120 1971240 3261600 38987140 8485110.15 1991899.47 1281720.55 1269118.95 2137093.53 1872361.48 1715707.84 1133947.1 1112425.93 937519.66 1063929.46 2073396.38 1248286.93 2517602.78 4390988.14 1940685.78 3211045.2 38382839.33 11875000 3333000 1379000 1420000 2897000 2202000 1867000 1149000 1149000 1040000 1146000 2265000 1334000 2853000 5042000 2207000 3571000 46729000

(IV)

(V) = IV*0.7537
8950187.5 2512082.1 1039352.3 1070254 2183468.9 1781466.2 1407157.9 866001.3 866001.3 783848.1 863740.2 1707130.5 1005435.8 2150306.1 3800155.4 1663415.9 2691462.7 35341466.2

(VI)

(VII) = VI*III
7464542.984 1752318.939 1127558.508 1116472.596 1880049.432 1647158.67 1509346.926 997558.8673 978626.2081 824757.2132 935962.7684 1824013.611 1098146.197 2214792.011 3862851.411 1707265.099 2824828.965 33766250.41

(VIII) = V-VII
1485644.516 759763.1611 -88206.2078 -46218.59575 303419.4682 134307.53 -102189.0258 -131557.5673 -112624.9081 -40909.21316 -72222.56843 -116883.1107 -92710.39739 -64485.91052 -62696.01088 -43849.19941 -133366.2646 1575215.695

(IX)

0.879722579

407.0258947 208.1542907 -24.1660843 -12.662629 83.12862143 36.79658356 -27.9969934 -36.0431691 -30.8561392 -11.2080036 -19.7870051 -32.0227701 -25.4001089 -17.6673727 -17.1769893 -12.0134793 -36.5387026 431.5659439

**1.55 % Population is in the 75+ age group, in 2001 (Population census, 2001) and 75.37% population is in 10+ age group, in 2008 (SVRS, 2008)

(Source: Calculated by the author, 2011)

In 2001 Enumerated Population, 2001 121931427.6 In 2011 Enumerated Population, 2011 107265830 Census survival ratio, 2001-2011 CSR= (Column 4/ column 2 0.879722579

Population (<75 Ages)

Population (10+ Ages)

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Dhaka Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 2001-2011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) 547014.31 279744.80 -32477.53 -17017.69 111719.05 49452.03 -37626.00 -48439.50 -41468.49 -15062.77 -26592.35 -43036.36 -34135.97 -23743.71 -23084.67 -16145.28 -49105.46 567899.05 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Dhaka Gazipur Manikganj Munshiganj Narayanganj Norsingdi Faridpur Gopalganj Madaripur Rajbari Shariatpur Jamalpur Sherpur Kishorganj Mymensingh Netrakona Tangail Dhaka Division

1485644.52 759763.16 -88206.21 -46218.60 303419.47 134307.53 -102189.03 -131557.57 -112624.91 -40909.21 -72222.57 -116883.11 -92710.40 -64485.91 -62696.01 -43849.20 -133366.26 1542365.70

54701.43 27974.48 -3247.75 -1701.77 11171.90 4945.20 -3762.60 -4843.95 -4146.85 -1506.28 -2659.23 -4303.64 -3413.60 -2374.37 -2308.47 -1614.53 -4910.55 56789.90

149.87 76.64 -8.90 -4.66 30.61 13.54 -10.31 -13.27 -11.36 -4.13 -7.29 -11.79 -9.35 -6.51 -6.32 -4.42 -13.45 158.90

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010) Data Source: Calculated by the author

Percentage of out migration in Dhaka division

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Barisal Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 20012011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 20012011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) -113120.7494 -55272.18467 -55493.57965 -44616.24103 -24717.99504 -46128.52311 -339349.2729 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Barisal Bhola Jhalokhati Pirojpur Barguna Patuakhali Barisal Division

-307226.37 -150114.57 -150715.86 -121173.93 -67131.98 -125281.16 -921643.87

-11312.07494 -5527.218467 -5549.357965 -4461.624103 -2471.799504 -4612.852311 -33934.92729

-30.99198615 -15.14306429 -15.20372045 -12.22362768 -6.772053435 -12.63795154 -92.97240354

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Barisal division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Rangpur Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 20012011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) -17966.13 -27270.34 6717.12 -5559.97 6910.27 5013.49 -4379.77 -10511.86 -47047.18 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Dinajpur Gaibandha Kurigram Lalmonirhat Nilphamari Panchagar Thakurgoan Rangpur Rangpur Division

-48794.48 -74063.93 18243.12 -15100.41 18767.72 13616.22 -11895.09 -28549.31 -127776.15

-1796.61 -2727.03 671.71 -556.00 691.03 501.35 -437.98 -1051.19 -4704.72

-4.92 -7.47 1.84 -1.52 1.89 1.37 -1.20 -2.88 -12.89

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Rangpur division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Sylhet Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 36060.37 40124.86 117464.42 359394.37 553044.02 Natural Disaster Migration Induced Net Migration, Per Year 2001-2011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) 13277.43 1327.74 14773.97 1477.40 43250.40 4325.04 132329.01 13232.90 203630.81 20363.08 Migration Per Day

Habiganj Moulavibazar Sunamganj Sylhet Sylhet Division

3.64 4.05 11.85 36.25 55.79

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Sylhet division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Khulna Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 20012011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) -115317.70 -26625.29 -12853.16 -8710.41 -23177.55 -78258.04 -40864.35 -8898.70 -17600.92 -6449.97 -338756.10 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Khulna Jessore Jhenaidha Magura Narail Bagerhat Satkhira Chuadanga Khushtia Meherpur Khulna Division

-313193.10 -72312.04 -34908.10 -23656.74 -62948.27 -212542.20 -110984.12 -24168.11 -47802.60 -17517.57 -920032.86

-11531.77 -2662.53 -1285.32 -871.04 -2317.76 -7825.80 -4086.44 -889.87 -1760.09 -645.00 -33875.61

-31.59 -7.29 -3.52 -2.39 -6.35 -21.44 -11.20 -2.44 -4.82 -1.77 -92.81

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Khulna division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Chittagong Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 2001-2011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) 10383.29 -2952.22 70228.87 20933.03 -50558.98 7778.40 3891.61 9488.71 776.13 -27382.59 -2053.46 35157.07 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Bandarban Chittagong Cox's Bazar B. Baria Chandpur Comilla Khagrachri Feni Lakshmipur Noakhali Rangamati Chittagong Division

28200.13 -8017.98 190735.67 56852.32 -137313.92 21125.47 10569.29 25770.55 2107.91 -74368.80 -5577.02 95483.62

1038.33 -295.22 7022.89 2093.30 -5055.90 777.84 389.16 948.87 77.61 -2738.25 -205.35 3515.71

2.84 -0.81 19.24 5.74 -13.85 2.13 1.07 2.60 0.21 -7.50 -0.56 11.10

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Chittagong division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Calculation of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh: Rajshahi Division Analysis
District Name Net Internal Migration, 2001-2011 Natural Disaster Induced Net Migration, 20012011 *(36.82% of net internal migration) 2557.31 97.28 -45975.47 -13100.04 349.47 -11232.28 -20892.43 -26096.42 -114292.58 Migration Per Year Migration Per Day

Pabna Sirajganj Naogaon Natore Chapai Nawabganj Rajshahi Joypurhat Bogra Rajshahi Division

6945.45 264.21 -124865.48 -35578.60 949.14 -30505.93 -56742.08 -70875.68 -310408.97

255.73 9.73 -4597.55 -1310.00 34.95 -1123.23 -2089.24 -2609.64 -11429.26

0.70 0.03 -12.60 -3.59 0.10 -3.08 -5.72 -7.15 -31.31

*Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. (Akter, T. 2010)

Percentage of out migration in Rajshahi division

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Analysis of Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration in Bangladesh:

Top 5 Districts for disaster induced In Migration

District Net migration per day Percentage %

Top 5 Districts in disaster induced Out Migration

District Net migration per day Percentage %

Dhaka Gazipur Sylhet Coxs Bazar

149.87 76.64 36.25 19.24

40.92% 20.93% 9.90% 8.36% 5.25%

Khulna Barisal Bagerhat Bhola Chandpur

-31.59 -31.0 -21.44 -15.14 -13.85

8.53% 8.37% 5.79% 4.09% 3.74%

Narayanganj 30.61

Data Source: Calculated by the author

Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration Mapping in Bangladesh:

(Source: Maps are Prepared by the author, 2011)

Natural Disaster Induced Internal Migration Mapping in Bangladesh:

(Source: Maps are Prepared by the author, 2011) (Source: Map Prepared by the author, 2011)

Relationship among Natural Disaster and Migration in Bangladesh:

(Source: CEGIS, 2007) (Source: Map Prepared by the author, 2011)

Major Slum Settlements of disaster migrants :

Maximum migrants from Northern & Central Region

Maximum migrants from Southern region

(Source: BCAS and Modified by the author, 2011)

Study area profile:

Study Area Profile

Study Area: Ershadnagar Slum Location: Ward no12, Tongi Pourashava Total Area: 105 Acre Total Population: 32607 Structure Type: 1. 2. 3. Source: GIS database of Tongi Pourashava and modified by the author, 2011 4. Pucca = 0.54% Semi Pucca = 16.44% Tin Shed = 77.34% Others = 5.68%

Study Area Profile

Study Area: Korail Slum Location: Near to Chairmanbari, Banani Total Area: 90 Acre Total Population: 120000 Structure Type: 1. 2. 3. Pucca = 5% Semi Pucca = 15% Kutcha = 80%

Source: GIS database of DCC and modified by the author, 2011

* Source: CUS Bulletin (56& 57) Centre for Urban Studies, 09

* Source: Tongi Pourashava

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Characteristics of the Respondents of Korail Slum
Age

Graphs

Characteristics of the Respondents of Ershadnagar Slum

Age

Graphs

Questionnaire surveys show that, maximum respondents are in the 51+ age group and this is about 31respondents and this percentage is 55.4%. A second highest respondent age group is 41-50 and this percentage is 25%.
Marital Status

Questionnaire surveys show that, maximum respondents are in the 51+ age group and this is about 24 respondents and this percentage is 41.4%. A second highest respondent age group is 41-50 and this percentage is 29.3%.
Marital Status

Almost 89.3% migrants were married at the time of the survey and this number is 50 persons. 3 migrants or about 5.4% were single and other 5.4% were widow.

About 77.6% migrants were married at the time of the survey and this number is 45 persons. 12.1% widow and another 10.3% single.

Gender

In this survey most of the respondents are male and this is about 47 persons. 83.9% respondents are male and other 16.1% respondents are female.

Gender

In this survey most of the respondents are male. 74.1% respondents are male and other 25.9% respondents are female.

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Occupational Displacement in korail slum
Occupation
Agriculture Fishing Small Business Labor Garments Worker Rickshaw Puller House Keeper CNG Driver Caretaker Beggar Hawker Private job No work

Occupation Before Migration

No. of Respondents 33 4 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A Percentage 58.9% 7.1% 12.5% 19.6% 1.8% -

Occupation After Migration

No. of Respondents N/A N/A 10 16 2 13 3 2 1 3 3 1 2 Percentage 17.9% 28.6% 3.6% 23.2% 5.4% 3.6% 1.8% 5.4% 5.4% 1.8% 3.6%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Occupational Displacement in Ershadnagar slum

Occupation
Agriculture Fishing Small Business Labor Garments Worker Rickshaw Puller CNG Driver Hawker Private job Potter Mechanics Beggar No work

Occupation Before Migration

No. of Respondents 36 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A Percentage 62.06% 8.62% 12.06% 15.51% 1.72% -

Occupation After Migration

No. of Respondents N/A N/A 8 11 18 9 3 4 2 2 1 Percentage 13.79% 18.97% 31.03% 15.52% 5.17% 6.90% 3.45% 3.45% 1.72%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Region of the migrants of korail slum

Region of the migrants of Ershadnagar slum

District Name
Bhola Sherpur Patuakhali Barisal Mymensingh Gaibandha Jhalakathi Bagerhat Khulna Barguna Rangpur Sirajganj Jamalpur

No. of Respondents
11 5 5 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 5 1 2

Percentage
19.64% 8.93% 8.93% 10.71% 8.93% 8.93% 7.14% 3.57% 3.57% 5.36% 8.93% 1.79% 3.57%

District Name
Bhola Lalmonirhat Rajshahi Barisal Mymensingh Gaibandha Faridpur Chadpur Noakhali Rangpur Sirajganj Jamalpur

No. of Respondents
2 4 3 6 6 7 6 3 3 6 5 7

Percentage
3.45% 6.90% 5.17% 10.34% 10.34% 12.07% 10.34% 5.17% 5.17% 10.34% 8.62% 12.07%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

58.9% from Southern Region

75.8% from Northern & Central Region

Spatial Distribution of Disaster Migrants Settlements in Dhaka:

Three major factors for the distribution of migrants

1. Transportation Route 2. Near to relatives 3. Availability of work

(Source: Map Prepared by the author, 2011)

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Year of coming to korail slum

Year of coming to korail Ershadnagar Slum

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Migration Type (Single or With Family): Opinion

Yes No

Migration Type (Single or With Family): Opinion

Yes No

No. of Respondents
41 15

Percentage
73.21% 26.79%

No. of Respondents
45 13

Percentage
77.58% 22.42%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Number of big natural disasters events experienced by the Migrants of korail slum

Number of big natural disasters events experienced by the Migrants of Ershadnagar Slum.

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Area more Vulnerable to which Disaster (Korail slum) : Name of Disaster (one respondent give multiple answer at a time)
Flood Riverbank Erosion Cyclone Drought

Area more Vulnerable to which Disaster (Ershadnagar slum) : Name of Disaster (one respondent give multiple answer at a time)
Flood Riverbank Erosion Cyclone Drought

No. of Respondents

Percentage

No. of Respondents

Percentage

48 45 31 3

85.71% 80.35% 55.35% 5.35%

49 45 14 6

84.48% 77.59% 24.14% 10.34%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Number of displacement: Number of displacement

1-3 4-6 7-9 10+ No

Number of displacement: Percentage

41.07% 3.57% 55.35%

No. of Respondents
23 2 31

Number of displacement
1-3 4-6 7-9 10+ No

No. of Respondents
17 1 40

Percentage
29.31% 1.72% 68.97%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Reason behind Displacement in korail slum:

25 respondents were eligible to provide that information
Reason
Lost of work Lost of Shelter Lost of cultivatable land Food Insecurity

Reason behind Displacement in Ershadnagar slum:

18 respondents were eligible to provide that information
Reason
Lost of work Lost of Shelter Lost of cultivatable land Food Insecurity

Weighted value
8*4+11*3+5*2+1*1 14*4+6*3+5*2+0*1 6*4+6*3+11*2+2*1 3*4+10*3+8*2+4*1

Score
76 84 66 62

Priority Level
Medium High Minimum Minimum

Weighted value
6*4+7*3+3*2+2*1 11*4+3*3+4*2+0*1 6*4+5*3+2*2+5*1 3*4+3*3+5*2+7*1

Score
53 61 48 38

Priority Level
Medium High Minimum Minimum

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Any intention to settle other place before coming to Dhaka: Opinion

Yes No

Any intention to settle other place before coming to Dhaka: Opinion

Yes No

No. of Respondents
7 49

Percentage
12.5% 87.5%

No. of Respondents
4 54

Percentage
6.89% 93.11%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Some positive image of Dhaka Most accessible City from any region

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Reason behind migrate to Dhaka (Korail Slum)
Reason
Good work opportunity For secure livelihood High wage rate Near to relatives

Reason behind migrate to Dhaka (Ershadnagar Slum)

Score
201 155 202 192

Weighted value
41*4+7*3+8*2+0*1 23*4+10*3+10*2+13*1 40*4+10*3+6*2+0*1 36*4+12*3+4*2+4*1

Priority Level
High Minimum High Medium

Reason
Good work opportunity For secure livelihood High wage rate

Weighted value
39*4+12*3+6*2+1*1 23*4+10*3+10*2+15*1 41*4+9*3+8*2+0*1

Score
205 157 207

Priority Level
High Minimum High

Near to relatives

17*4+23*3+12*2+6*1

167

Medium

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Migration Type (Korail Slum)

Migration Type
Permanent Temporary

Migration Type (Ershadnagar Slum) Percentage

94.64% 5.36%

No. of Respondents
53 3

Migration Type
Permanent Temporary

No. of Respondents
50 8

Percentage
86.20% 13.80%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Analysis on the disaster induced migrants in Dhaka:

Duration of living in Korail slum: Duration of living in Ershadnagar slum:

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Interest to go back to village (Korail slum):

Interest to go back to village (Ershadnagar Slum):

Option
Yes No

No. of Respondents
13 43

Percentage
23.21% 76.785

Option
Yes No

No. of Respondents
8 50

Percentage
13.80% 86.20%

Source: Field Survey, 2011

Source: Field Survey, 2011

How excessive migration affecting the Planned growth of Dhaka:

1. Affecting urban environment, by increasing the population density over permitted population density and creating pressure on:

2.

Urban amenities and utility services Transport sector Urban land

Affecting the provisions of master plan by violating rules by

By establishing settlements in flood prone area By increasing the environmental pollution

Violation of the provision of master plan

Natural Disaster

Migration

Slum

Evection

Resettle to mainly flood prone areas nearby to city

District

Net migration per day

Percentage %

Dhaka Gazipur

149.87 76.64

40.92% 20.93% 8.36%

Narayanganj 30.61

Recommendations:

1. Disaster mapping can be a very important tool for disaster management. By proper management after any disaster event, disaster mapping can put negative impact on human migration.
Disaster mapping makes it easy to monitoring different hazard and disaster. When it is difficult to collect information about damage of disaster , affected population and most affected areas during any disaster event, disaster mapping by satellite image makes it possible for the estimation of damage, affected population and area. Emergency relief work is very important after any disaster event, by disaster mapping, it is possible to provide relief within very short time to the most affected area.

2. Migration mapping can be used as a very important tool for urban planning and urban management in both smaller and larger aspects. Migration mapping, makes it possible to monitor the migration movement of population from one region to another.

Recommendations:

Makes it easy to take proper steps, to restrict excessive internal population migration
Migration mapping indicate, which regions need more importance for development. It makes it easy to take development activities. 3. Information about the spatial distribution of settlements of the migrants can be used in the process of resettlement of them to their own region. Spatial distribution of the disaster migrants also include information about their habit, occupation, work preference, living condition, income which will be needed in the case of preparing a resettlement plan for the disaster migrants. Spatial distribution is needed to know about the attraction factors, which are involved to choose any place for migration by the people of different regions. By considering those factors, and providing these facilities to different regions, it is possible to give a check in excessive disaster induced migration to Dhaka and other big cities.

Conclusion:

Increased frequency and severity of natural disasters over the past recent years are not only displacing people but also exposing to enhanced unplanned urbanization. There is lack of proper policy guidelines to monitor and restrict excessive migration to Dhaka. But, day by day much migration by the disaster induced people are making the city more unfit for living. Excessive migration is disturbing the planned growth of Dhaka. But it is also necessary to take proper development and resettlement measures to reduce migration. And disaster mapping, migration mapping and spatial distribution of disaster migrants can be used as a tool in urban planning and management to reduced migration and to ensure better development of both the migrants and the people of Dhaka city.

References:
Ahmed, A. U. and Neelormi, S. 2008. Climate change, loss of livelihoods and forced displacements in Bangladesh: whither facilitated international migration Akter, T. 2010. Migration and living conditions in urban slums: implications for food security Website link: http://www.unnayan.org/reports/Migration.and.living.conditions.in.urban.slums.pdf, accessed date on, 19.04.2011 Akter, T. 2009, Climate Change and Flow of Environmental Displacement in Bangladesh Website link: http://www.unnayan.org/reports/Climate_Change_and_Flow_of_Environmental_displace ment.pdf, accessed date on 25.05.2011 Bangladesh: state of the environment report, 2001, Website link: http://www.rrcap.unep.org/pub/soe/bangladesh_disasters.pdf, accessed date on 26.05.2011 IOM (International Organization for Migration), 2007, Discussion note: migration and the environment. International Organization for Migration Website link: http://www.iom.int/jahia/jsp/index.jsp, accessed date on 25.05.2011 BBS, 2001 and 2011 (Population Census) SVRS, 2008 (Sample Vital Registration Survey)

Bangladesh Centre for Advance Studies (BCAS, 2007)

Thanks to all