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R.VAIDYANATHAN PROFESSOR OF FINANCE & CONTROL & UTI CHAIR PROFESSOR INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT BANGALORE BANNERGHATTA ROAD BANGALORE INDIA 560076 TEL: 91-80-658-2450 FAX: 91-80-658-4050 E-mail: vaidya@iimb.ernet.in
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Challenges
Government schemes-pay as you go- facing crisis. Inverted Pyramid population structure. Post-retirement expectations and standards of living. Inability of existing employees to sustain the system. Moving towards private contribution schemes. Inadequate underwriting returns and reliance on Investment returns.
@Prof.R.Vaidyanathan,iimb
Demographics India: Work Force Covered Number of workers - 314 million (1991 census data).
Regular salaried employees - 47 million (15.2%).
Central, State and other departmental employees - 11.13 million (23%). They are covered by non contributory, indexed, defined benefit pension, funded entirely by the government. Nearly 23 million (49%) of the salaried (non-government) workers are covered by mandatory Employee Provident Fund and the Employee Pension Scheme. Hence nearly 34 million ( or less than 11%) of the working population has got old age income security.
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Demography: Issues Western Europe is developing as a inverted Pyramid structure. Less than replacement levels. More of elderly [ Northern Europe it is negative growth] US helped by Hispanic influx. Issues of Pensions/Social security/ health care. Younger labor force issues [ Un-skilled]
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Demographics - India
Total population to increase by 49% between 1991 and 2016 Number of elderly ( >60 years) to increase by 107% to 113 million. The share of the aged in the total population will be 8.9% in 2016.
Persons at age 60 today are expected to live beyond 75 years of age. Hence an Indian worker needs to have resource to support himself for nearly 15 years after retirement.
Source : Project OASIS Report, January 2000
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Total Population 1027 Mn. Total workers 403 Mn. Agriculture 235 Mn. Industry 17 Mn. Other [service sectors] 151 Mn
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Source: Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of the
United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects. The 2002 revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 revision. http//esa.un.org/unpp.
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The minimum monthly pension floor for GEPS is INR 3500 and the maximum is INR 45000 per month
It is indexed to the Consumer price Index [CPI]. The indexation benefit known as Dearness relief is revised twice a year. The relief is payable in addition to the calculated amount shown above using the pension formula.
Commutation
Maximum commutation of 40% is permissible. The commuted portion is restored after 15 years of retirement. Covers Longevity and inflation.
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Risk Coverage
Gratuity
Lump sum payable on retirement / death Amount payable based on length of service and last pay drawn , subject to a ceiling of INR 350,000 Governed by a payment of Gratuity Act, 1972 Three types of gratuity --Retirement --Death --Service
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DC scheme , employee contributes 6% of basic pay Provides for lump-sum payment on retirement / death Employees contributions are accumulated and earn administered interest
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Encashment of earned leave Central government employees Insurance scheme Contributory Provident Fund for nonpensionable employees
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Applicable to 180 industries and classes of establishments notified by the government and covered by the EPF & MP act 1952, and which employ 20 or more persons
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Schemes
Employees Provident Fund Scheme -1952 Employees Pension Scheme - 1995 Employees Deposit-Linked Insurance scheme 1976
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Management
Employees Provident Fund Organisation(EPFO) Coal-miners Provident Fund Assam Tea Plantation Provident Fund Jammu & Kashmir Provident Fund Seamen Provident Fund
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@Prof.R.Vaidyanathan,iimb 24 Note:EPF:Employees provident Fund Scheme,,EPS:Employees Pension Scheme,EDLI: Employees Deposit Linked Insurance th Source: 50 annual Report EPFO-2002-2003,pp9,Ministry of Labour, GoI, New Delhi
Total Funding
9.49
0.5
0.01
0.18
N/A
0.005
@Prof.R.Vaidyanathan,iimb Note:Jute,Beedi,Brick,Coir other than spinning sector,and Guar Gum are the five industries Source:50th Annual Report, EPFO,2000-2003,pp9.Ministry of Labour, GoI,New Delhi
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Voluntary Schemes
Public Provident Fund [PPF] LICs Pension Plans --Jeevan Dhara --Jeevan Akshay --Jeevan Suraksha etc UTI Unit Linked Plans Personal Pension Plan of Private Life Insurers [HDFC , ICICI, ING, METLIFE, etc] Varishta Bima Yojana LICs group superannuation plans
Tax exemption up to Rs 10,000 of contribution
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National social assistance programmes --National Old Age Pension Scheme(NOAP) Annapurna Scheme Pension for freedom fighters
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Joint family System Transfers from children / family Community based old age homes/ charity Continuity in work after retirement
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Government Pensions--Issues
Central Govt. Pensions 1990-91 to 2001-2002 by a CAGR of 21%. Dependency Rationearly 60% Replacement Ratio [If Pension/gratuity/GPF is combined]more than 100% States Pension as share of total revenue increased from 2% to 11% during 1980-81 to 2001-2002 During 1995-2000 State pensions grew at 30% Revenue Grew at 11% expenditure at 15%
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Mandatory Schemes--Concerns
Administered interest rate Real Rate of return inadequate [1986-2000: 2.7%] Prescriptive investment norms--90% in Government /Public Sector securities Significant withdrawal and less final sum Portability--difficulties Asset management skills need enhancement
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Emerging Trends--Economic
India one of the fastest growing Economies Growth Rate more than 6% annual [last decade] Current fiscal[2003-2004] to grow at 8.1%[advanced estimate CSO] Poverty Ratio declined from 55% to 24% [1973-74 to 1999-2000] 65% of Household have at least one of the six consumer durable [ Radio,TV,Telephone,Cycle,Scooter,Car] Savings Rate around 24% Household saving 90% of Savings Provident and Pension funds 24% of household Financial savings 12.8 mn. Households[ 19 mn.individuals]8% of all households invest in shares/bonds
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Investment norms of funds are skewed towards government and semi-government securities
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Policy Options
Reforms in Govt. Pension system [Initiated--from DB to DC for post 1-1-04 entrants, PFRDA, State Level Reforms etc] Reforms in Mandatory Schemes [Initiated: returns/management/national id/ computerizations etc] Enhancing the coverage [ Pilot scheme started in fifty centers for unorganised sector] Leveraging on Gold [Voluntary Schemes]
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