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Understanding uncertainty
Modeling supply chains Using strategic modeling tool Case studies
Conclusions
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Multiple suppliers
Complex processes to make subassemblies/ final product(uncertainity) Variety of customers Varied transportation options
How much to hold?(avoid huge inventory costs) Where to hold?(vendor should keep more for me and supply when required)
System optimization
Possible performance given existing operating characteristics like order review period, forecast accuracy Metrics: Inventory investment , Inventory turnover ratio, order fill rate
Controlling uncertainty
Planning changes
3 steps
Demand
Inventory control
INCLUDE UNCERTAINTY
Sources of uncertainty
Suppliers
Manufacturing
Frequency of downtime, repair time & its variation Probability distribution of performance & reliability
Customers
Average demand & its variability Effective variability vs. actual variability
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ACT STRATEGICALLY
Customer service affected by uncertainties How to reduce these?
Uncertainty cycle
Manufacturing Process design Product design Capacity Quality Supplier Performance Responsiveness Transportation Location Quality Customer Deliveries
Customer Demand Past performance Market research Analytical techniques Incentive programs
Valid input
2.
Iterative analysis(go on refining each policy and then see)Act when refined.
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Useful output
Line-item fill rate (Compare fill rate vs. weeks of supply for alt. policies)Fill rate measures resposiveness and tell us how much customer orders u r able 2 fill from items u have in stock. Order aging curve (Compare days late vs. cum. portion of orders shipped for alt. policies)
Less items on hand-high fill rate-satisfy more customers with less inventory.
Plot on monthly basis Compare actual & predicted
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Postponement of localization
POSTPONEMENT
Benefits
Showed that stock increases from usual 1 month (FGI at US) to 5 months
Choose best alternative
Cut down 3 months shipping delay More attractive deal with partner
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INTERPRETING FINDINGS
Minimum stock
Inventory reduction
Improving manufacturing
Working with suppliers
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Required focus
Forecast demand better Design products that allow better risk pooling
CONCLUSIONS
Focus on thorough SC analysis with data and quantitative techniques Change product and process of each stage to reduce uncertainties and improve performance
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