Human Population

in billions

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for non-commercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world.

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.

BIRTHS

MINUS

DEATHS
Source: Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet, 2011

Each day there are approximately

382 000
During the same 24 hours there are approximately

births

155 000

deaths

Updates for these numbers are accessible at

www.census.gov www.prb.org www.esa.un.org/unpp

Notice that there are approximately

227 000
extra births

Source: Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet, 2011

Net Daily Increase

Notice that there are approximately

227 000
extra births each day

Source: Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet, 2011

Net Daily Increase

Rate of Increase
Notice that there are approximately

908 000
extra persons inhabiting our planet

At these rates of growth, we add approximately

One Billion
extra people to our planet every twelve to fifteen years

between 1975 and 1987 we grew from four billion to five billion

.
between 1987 and 1999 we grew from five billion to six billion

and between 1999 and 2011 we grew

from six billion to seven billion

 numbers EIGHT and NINE

on-track to arrive between now and 2041

and continuing on to

TEN

to 15.8 billion by 2100

Based on the U.N.s newest world population projections, May 2011

With still more billions

A graph based on the mediumrange U.N. estimates looks like this

8, 9, and 10 reflect U.N. Medium-fertility estimates

Based on the U.N.s newest world population projections, May 2011

we reached SEVEN billion late in 2011

Which means that we have added FIVE additional billions in less than a single human lifetime

8, 9, and 10 reflect U.N. Medium-fertility estimates

Based on the U.N.s newest world population projections, May 2011

Notice that, beginning in 1930 with a world population of TWO billion,

8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15.8 billion

VERY much larger than those medium-fertility projections

reflect 2011 U.N. high-fertility estimates

World populations
in billions

Based on the U.N.s newest world population projections, May 2011

And a graph based on the U.N.s high-fertility estimates shows numbers that are

Based on the U.N.s newest world population projections, May 2011

For, based on the newest U.N. numbers, if worldwide fertility-rates average

8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15.8 billion

reflect 2011 U.N. high-fertility estimates

Just child per woman higher

than the U.N.s medium fertility estimates

we could find ourselves and our planet headed toward

15.8

BILLION

by centurys end

8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15.8 billion

Imagine adding an eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth billion (and 800 million more after that)

reflect 2011 U.N. high-fertility estimates

by the end of this century

Three recent articles by prominent demographers have suggested that the U.N.s medium-range projections are too optimistic and that the real-world numbers that actually emerge could be closer to the high-end estimates

And, because earths planetary

Carrying Capacity

for an industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less

the numbers we have just seen constitute

the single most dangerous humanitarian, biospheric, and civilizational risks

that our species has ever undertaken

Which means that we need to pay close attention to J-curves, and carrying capacities, and the truly ENORMOUS size of each of the billions that we have mentioned

Numeric Literacy
How Large is a Billion?

It is easy to think of a

Million

and a

Billion

as simply very large numbers

But in reality, they are

enormously
different

Example 1
(for Academia)

Suppose that you have been chosen to fill a well-remunerated position as the Senior Editor of a one-billion-page Encyclopedia of Theoretical Physics

The position requires, however, that you edit, peer-review, and successfully-publish 500 completed pages of the encyclopedia per week (100 pages per day, five days per week) 52 weeks per year until the project is completed.

At this rate, how long will be required to complete your project?

Example 2
(for younger audiences)

Since theoretical physics can be decidedly challenging, let us envision the same THOUGHT-EXPERIMENT in a more audience-friendly way

As two distinct audience-friendly riddles

Riddle Number One

How long would it take to complete one

Million
homework questions at a rate of

100 questions per night, five nights per week, 52 weeks per year?

Answer
It would take

38

and

1/2

years

to finish such an assignment

Riddle Number Two

How long would it take to complete one

Billion

homework questions working at the same rate?

Answer
To complete one billion such questions would require

38,461 years

This means that if a student began working on this assignment

20,000 years ago

When

ice

was one-mile thick over

Ohio, Michigan,
and

Wisconsin

When

Wooly mammoths

and

Saber-toothed tigers

still roamed the earth

and each and every homework question was conscientiously completed

for all

20,000

years

from then until now

the student would have to continue working on their homework

for another

18,461 years

into the future

in order to finish their assignment

That is how many

additional

people we are adding to our planet every twelve to fifteen years

No wonder earths biological and environmental machinery is breaking

Notice that a billion is an

enormous

number

Earth lights at night http://apod.nasa.gov

Such enormous numbers have important humanitarian, biospheric, and civilizational implications

While our populations would remain stable if births and deaths were equal at todays rates we add

One Billion
addition people to our planet every twelve to fifteen years

We must provide
Food Health care Housing Roads Education Employment

Every 12-15 years

Drinking water Sanitation and a host of Other necessities

And this is without yet raising issues of all the environmental damage that we inflict

if today is Friday
by this same time on Monday Earth will be home to

681,000

additional people

Hopefully, someone, somewhere

is planning to grow a LOT of extra food over the weekend

if today is Monday
by this same time on Friday Earth will be home to

908,000

additional people

Necessitating completion of more than

36,320
additional classrooms by this same time on Friday

 What if not enough jobs are available?

What if not enough schools and classrooms are built? What if no fuel wood or electricity is available? What if young people ages 15-30 have little schooling, no skills, and no jobs?

Other Implications
It took about one-hundred years (1850 to 1950) for the populations of the U.S. and Europe to approximately double Today, many of the worlds poorest and least-developed countries are doubling their populations

Every 30 years

And some have QUADRUPLED their populations in less than fifty years

Even a rich country would find it nearly impossible to DOUBLE all of its schools, services, health care, and infrastructure

in a span of two or three decades

If the worlds poorest nations were working with stable populations,

their chances of improving health care, education, infrastructure, and standards of living would be greatly enhanced

The Big Picture?

(2) This is how much we are growing

This graph is based. on U.N High-fertility projections This graph is based on U.N. mediumfertility projections

Human Population
in billions

7, 8, 9, and 10 reflect UN Medium-fertility estimates, May 2011 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 15.8 reflect UN high-fertility estimates, May 2011

(1) Recall that a billion is a VERY large number

Notice that just since 1930 we have added five

billion additional persons to our planet in less than one human lifetime

It took all of human history until 1930 for us to reach

TWO

billion

Suddenly, however Two billion grew to three billion Three billion grew to four billion Four billion grew to five billion Five billion grew to six billion

Human Population
in billions

And six billion grew to seven billion

And now the most recent U.N. projections show us headed toward ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, or fifteen billion (plus 800 million more after that) by the end of this century

No other generations in human history have ever lived their lives in such a demographic tidal wave

It is hard to avoid noticing a pronounced J-curve shape in a graph of human population growth

Human Population
in billions

See our addenda concerning the significance of this

In the past we have always been able to count on the functioning of the earths biospheric machinery as a given

Today, however, our population has already become so large, and continues to grow larger so rapidly

that such presumptions

are no longer warranted

To scientists and mathematicians: It is difficult not to notice the LATE-PHASE EXPONENTIAL look of these graphs, isnt it?

Human Population
in billions

Addenda

Both of these images depict a characteristic graph called a

J-curve
which is produced by powerful, deceptive numbers in an exponential progression

Also notice that, like a J-curve, we are rocketing straight upward along the y-axis of this graph

J-curve graph
For instance, a sequence such as 1248163264 etc. produce a J-curve when graphed And so will a sequence such as 1392781243etc.

Notice that in each case, the numbers are growing larger by repeated multiplications by like amounts

Notice that our own graph embodies a nearly-identical shape

J-curve

J-curve

Unfortunately, the first atomic tests at Alamogordo, New Mexico in 1945 showed our species quite dramatically

what

J-curves
can do

As an understatement, J-curves unfortunately have a decided tendency to flatten and obliterate everything around them in every direction

Some would attribute the destruction to the physics of nuclear fission

In another sense, however, it was the exponential behavior of the fission events that resulted in calamity

The possibility (or likelihood?) of climb-and-collapse?

J-curve

This has been presentation one in our set of five

Links and Other Resources

http://www.scribd.com/TheWecskaopProject http://www.scribd.com/math_resources

http://www.calameo.com/accounts/676519 http://www.flickr.com/photos/pali-nalu

Other presentations in this collection are accessible at

www.scribd.com/TheWecskaopProject www.scribd.com/Math_resources www

.calameo.com/read/
0006765197e14be48b510

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for non-commercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world.

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.

Human Population
in billions