Battling the Two-Edged Sword in China:

Controlling Pests with Bt Cotton and Managing

Resistance Build-up with Refuge Policies

Fangbin Qiao
Bacillus thuringiensis Bt
On the one hand

One the other hand

resistant
 Refuge

On plots with Bt cotton On plots with no Bt cotton

resistant susceptible
 Is a US-style refuge policy really
suitable for all the other countries?
what are the optimal refuge polices for these countries?
It turns out that to properly model this issue, the context
of the study (such as the dynamics of the pest
population, the nature of the cropping patterns; etc.)
all matter. Therefore, a model on cotton is going to be
different than a model on corn
 (%)
N

20
40
60

0
or
th
er
n

C
en
tr
al

W
es
te
rn
 (1,000 tons)
19

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000

0
7 9
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
Helicoverpa
armigera
29 93
On the one hand,

On the other hand,

 Resistance factor of In fact, this was not the first
cotton bollworm to time that the bollworm
population built up resistance.
180 pyrethroid During the 1980s, it had built
160 up resistance to
140 organophosphates.
120
100 So, farmers had to move to
using pyrethroid-based
80
insecticides. The problem in the
60
early 1990s was that there was
40 nothing to move into.
20
0 This tendency of the bollworm to
1981 1985 1987 1995 evolve resistance is an
important characteristic that I
Nice wine!
Am I drunk?
 6000
(1,000 ha)

4000

2000

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
 100

75
(%)

50

25

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Henan, Shandong, and Hebei are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest
cotton production provinces in China
120 Bt is just another
pesticide. Will
bollworms develop
80 resistance like they
did to OPs in the
40 1980s and
Pyrethroids in the
0 1990s?

1 10 18 33 38 44
In the US: non-Bt cotton refuge

natural refuge crop

In China: things are different  There are
“natural refuge crops” in the diverse cropping
pattern

Definition of natural refuge crop: a crop other

than cotton that can serve as a host for the
cotton bollworm
China’s cropping patterns are different than those in the US where cotton is often mono-cropped
across huge areas. The typical view in China is like this. Cotton plots are planted among many
different crops. Farms are very diversified
And, so the argument is that China does not need to spend the
time and effort developing, enforcing cotton refuges.
In China: things are different  There are
“natural refuge crops” in the diverse cropping
pattern

Definition of natural refuge crop: a crop other

than cotton that can serve as a host for the
cotton bollworm
So, what are the cropping patterns like in Northern China? Are there
natural refuges? I use 3 tapes of data to show this. And information
from these data sources are incorporated into my analysis
my family farm (2006)
hosted

CORN
No. 1
geno =
Dt + − Dt = g Dt − Dt − ∑MR
geno =
t
geno
 No. 2
geno = geno =
wt + − wt = − wt wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno
+ − wt wt − wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno

geno =
+ wt − wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno

No. 3
geno = geno =
vt + − vt = −v t vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno
+ − vt vt − vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno

geno =
+ vt − vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno
Min ( ∑t = δt)
t =T
Dt α + cbt qt + ccp qt btcpt + − qt nbtcpt
≤ qt ≤
≤btcpt ≤
≤ nbtcpt ≤
Min
t =T
t=
V Dt = Dt α + cbt qt + ccp qt btcpt + − qt nbtcpt + δ V Dt + )
≤ qt ≤
≤btcpt ≤
≤ nbtcpt ≤

geno =
Dt + −Dt = g Dt −Dt − ∑MR
geno =
t
geno

geno = geno =
wt + − wt = − wt wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno
+ − wt wt − wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno

geno =
+ wt − wt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR
geno =
t
geno

geno = geno =
vt + − vt = − v t vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno
+ − vt vt − vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno

geno =
+ vt − vt g Dt − Dt − ∑ MR t
geno
1
.5
0
0.5
1

0 5 10 15
(Year)
 1
.8
.6
.4
.2
0

0 5 10 15
(Year)
Even though 100% Bt cotton has been planted for 15 years, because
of these natural refuge crops, the share of the susceptible gene to Bt
toxin is still high (>80%) at the 15th year.
 1
.8
.6
.4
.2
0

0 5 10 15
(Year)
However, if we assume natural refuge crops are not available, or cotton
is the only host plant for cotton bollworm, and if 100% Bt cotton has
been planted for 15 years, then the share of the susceptible gene to Bt
toxin will be very low (near zero) at the 15th year. In other words, pest
1
.8
.6
.4
.2
0

0 5 10 15
(Year)
1
.8
.6
.4
.2
0

0 5 10 15 20
(Year)
1
.5
0
0.5
1

0 5 10 15 20
(Year)
Cost of zero refuge policy and optimal dynamic refuge
policy for 20-year plan
1
.5
0
0.5
1

0 20 40 60 80 100
(Year)

Thank you!