Basic Statistics for Counselling EDG 1503

Introduction Dr. Madihah Khalid

Nature of Statistics
Statistics First appeared in the English language in 1787.

Statistical Thinking Will One Day Be As Necessary For Efficient Citizenship as The Ability To Read & Write. ~ H. G. Wells
Lies, Damn Lies, & Statistics - frequently attributed to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli[1] and later popularized in America by author Mark Twain: "The remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". What do you think of these 2 quotes?

Example of Task 3
The scatter plot below shows records of 50m running and the respective salary of businessman aged 30 to 50 years old. Why are the slow runners earning high salary? salary hig h

Low

fas t

slow

Time for running 50m

Do you consider the reporters statement to be a reasonable interpretation of the graph? Give an explanation to support your answer.

 What do you think of when you hear the word statistics? Think of a general question that could be answered with statistics. How would you carry out the process in order to answer your question? Be as specific as possible. Make a list of the topics and ideas that come to mind when you think of probability, including both everyday uses of probability and mathematical or school uses. What does probability have to do with statistics? Think about ways that statistics might use probability, and vice versa.

History of statistics
The history of statistics can be said to start around 1749. Over time, there have been changes to the interpretation of what the word statistics means. In early times, the meaning was restricted to information about states. This was later extended to include all collections of information of all types, and later still it was extended to include the analysis and interpretation of such data. In modern terms, "statistics" means both sets of collected information, as in income distribution and temperature records, and analytical work which requires statistical inference.

RELATION WITH PROBABILITY

The relation between statistics and probability theory developed rather late, however. In the 19th century, statistics increasingly used probability theory, whose initial results were found in the 17th and 18th centuries, particularly in the analysis of games of chance (gambling). By 1800, astronomy used probability models and statistical theories, particularly the method of least squares. Early probability theory and statistics was systematized and extended by Laplace; following Laplace, probability and statistics have been in continual development. In the 19th century, social scientists used statistical reasoning and probability models to advance the new sciences of experimental psychology and sociology; physical scientists used statistical reasoning and probability models to advance the new sciences of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. The development of statistical reasoning was closely associated with the development of inductive logic and the scientific method.

Statistics in everyday life

1. Weather Forecasts Do you watch the weather forecast sometime during the day? How do you use that information? Have you ever heard the forecaster talk about weather models? These computer models are built using statistics that compare prior weather conditions with current weather to predict future weather. 2. Emergency Preparedness What happens if the forecast indicates that a hurricane is imminent or that tornadoes are likely to occur? Emergency management agencies move into high gear to be ready to rescue people. Emergency teams rely on statistics to tell them when danger may occur. 3. Predicting Disease Lots of times on the news reports, statistics about a disease are reported. If the reporter simply reports the number of people who either have the disease or who have died from it, it's an interesting fact but it might not mean much to your life. But when statistics become involved, you have a better idea of how that disease may affect you.

 4. Medical Studies Scientists must show a statistically valid rate of effectiveness before any drug can be prescribed. Statistics are behind every medical study you hear about. 5. Political Campaigns Whenever there's an election, the news organizations consult their models when they try to predict who the winner is. Candidates consult voter polls to determine where and how they campaign. Statistics play a part in who your elected government officials will be 6. Insurance You know that in order to drive your car you are required by law to have car insurance. If you have a mortgage on your house, you must have it insured as well. The rate that an insurance company charges you is based upon statistics from all drivers or homeowners in your area. 7. Stock Market Another topic that you hear a lot about in the news is the stock market. Stock analysts also use statistical computer models to forecast what is happening in the economy. Note: Try to think where do YOU encounter statistics in YOUR life

Statistics as Problem Solving

Four things make a problem statistical: the way in which you ask the question, the role and nature of the data, the particular ways in which you examine the data, and the types of interpretations you make from the investigation. A statistics problem typically contains four components: 1. Ask a question. Asking a question gets the process started. Its important to ask a question carefully, with an understanding of the data you will use to find your answer. 2. Collect appropriate data. Collecting data to help answer the question is an important step in the process. You obtain data by measuring something, so your measurement methods must be chosen with care. Sampling is one way to collect data; experimentation is another. 3. Analyze the data. Data must be organized, summarized, and represented properly in order to provide good answers to statistical questions. Also, the data you collect usually vary (i.e., they are not all the same), and you will need to account for the sources of this variation. 4. Interpret the results. After you analyze your data, you must interpret it in order to provide an answeror answersto the original question.

Example
Ask a question: Are men typically taller than women? Do men typically have longer arm spans than women?

 a. Examine the 24 measurements for height and arm span. Youll notice that they are not all the same. What is the source of this variation? Can you explain why there are differences? b. Suppose your goal was to prove that men are typically taller than women. Does this data prove that conclusion? Why or why not? Talk about error and bias. What can you do to reduce these? Sampling?

STATISTICAL REASONING
The way people reason with statistical ideas and make sense of statistical info. You should be able to do the following: Formulate questions that can be addressed with data and collect, organize, and display relevant data to answer them Select and use appropriate statistical methods to analyze data Develop and evaluate inferences and predictions that are based on data Understand and apply basic concepts of probability For data analysis and statistics, students are expected to do the following: Formulate questions, design studies, and collect data about a characteristic shared by two populations or different characteristics within one population Select, create, and use appropriate graphical representations of data Find, use, and interpret measures of center and spread, including mean and interquartile range Discuss and understand the correspondence between data sets by correlating and regressing Understand and use statistical inference to make decisions.

POPULATION AND SAMPLE

In data handling, the word population is used for a collection, set or objects being studied. A sample is a small part of the population.

Why do we use a sample?

Because it is cheaper and quicker. Conclusions are drawn from the samples and applied to the whole population.

TYPES of DATA
Not all data is created equally. Some is quantitative, and some is qualitative. Some is continuous and some is discrete.

Another way to separate data is to look at what is being measured. To do this there are four levels of measurement: nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio. Different levels of measurement call for different statistical techniques. For example, it makes no sense whatsoever to find the mean, and median of a list of IC numbers.

Nominal Level of Measurement

The nominal level of measurement is the lowest of the four ways to characterize data. Nominal means "in name only" and that should help to remember what this level is all about. Nominal data deals with names, categories, or labels. Data at the nominal level is qualitative. Colors of eyes, yes or no responses to a survey, and favorite breakfast cereal all deal with the nominal level of measurement. Even some things with numbers associated with them, such as a number on the back of a football jersey, are nominal since it is used to "name" an individual player on the field. Data at this level can't be ordered in a meaningful way, and it makes no sense to calculate things such as means and standard deviations.

Ordinal Level of Measurement

The next level is called the ordinal level of measurement. Data at this level can be ordered, but no differences between the data can be taken that are meaningful.

Here you should think of things like a list of the top ten cities to live. The data, here ten cities, are ranked from one to ten, but differences between the cities don't make much sense. There's no way from looking at just the rankings to know how much better life is in city number 1 than city number 2.
Another example of this are letter grades. You can order things so that A is higher than a B, but without any other information, there is no way of knowing how much better an A is from a B. As with the nominal level, data at the ordinal level should not be used in calculations.

Interval Level of Measurement

The interval level of measurement deals with data that can be ordered, and in which differences between the data does make sense. Data at this level does not have a starting point.
The Fahrenheit and Celsius scales of temperatures are both examples of data at the interval level of measurement. You can talk about 30 degrees being 60 degrees less than 90 degrees, so differences do make sense. However 0 degrees (in both scales) cold as it may be does not represent the total absence of temperature.

Data at the interval level can be used in calculations. However, data at this level does lack one type of comparison. Even though 3 x 30 = 90, it is not correct to say that 90 degrees Celsius is three times as hot as 30 degrees Celsius.

Ratio Level of Measurement

The fourth and highest level of measurement is the ratio level. Data at the ratio level possess all of the features of the interval level, in addition to a zero value. Due to the presence of a zero, it now makes sense to compare the ratios of measurements. Phrases such as "four times" and "twice" are meaningful at the ratio level. Distances, in any system of measurement give us data at the ratio level. A measurement such as 0 feet does make sense, as it represents no length. Furthermore 2 feet is twice as long as 1 foot. So ratios can be formed between the data. At the ratio level of measurement, not only can sums and differences be calculated, but also ratios. One measurement can be divided by any nonzero measurement, and a meaningful number will result.

Difference between qualitative and quantitative data

Qualitative data can be arranged into categories that are not numerical. These categories can be physical traits, gender, colors or anything that does not have a number associated to it. Qualitative data is sometimes referred to as categorical data. Examples - The color of cars in a parking lot, the letter grade of students in a classroom the types of coins in a jar Quantitative data is numerical. It is acquired through counting or measuring. Examples The heights of players on a football team, the number of cars in each row of a parking lot, the percent grade of students in a classroom, the values of homes in a neighborhood

Discrete and continuous measures

There are two types of variable - discrete and continuous. A discrete variable can only take certain values from a finite set while a continuous variable can take any value. Example The number of people in a car can only be a whole number: 1, 2, 3, 4... It is not possible to have 31/2 or 21/4 people in a car, so the number of people in a car is a discrete variable. The time taken to run 100 m can take any value, such as 41.35 seconds, 27.371 seconds, and so on. Time is therefore a continuous variable.

Question: Is shoe size a discrete or continuous variable?

Question: Is the length of someone's foot a discrete or continuous variable?