Maritime Strategic Overview

of the Asia-Pacific

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Australian Defence Force Academy
Presentation to
RSN International Maritime Security Conference
Singapore, May 13-24, 2009
 Changing Global Environment
 IMF forecasts ‘unusually long and severe’ global
recession
 ‘The primary near-term concern of the United
States is the global economic crisis and its
geopolitical implications’.
– Director of (US) National Intelligence
 ‘China’s rise is the most consequential long term
trend in the world today…’.
– Hugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary for
Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)
China’s GDP to Overtake US
Changing Power Relativities
 Changing Global Environment

 ‘Arc of instability’ across Africa and Middle

East
– prominence of non-state actors
 Demographic deficits in Japan and Russia
 Persisting but diminished U.S. global
dominance
 Emerging multipolar system
 Growing importance of maritime domain
The Maritime Domain
Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
 Impact of Global Economic Crisis
– U.S. moral authority dented and attraction of
capitalist development model undermined
– Strengthening of China’s leadership role and
enhancement of state-led development model
 National economic recovery and economic
growth key priority for all
 North Korea – going against the tide
Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics

 U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)

 U.S. commitment to allies through forward
presence and power projection (Guam)
 U.S.-Japan alliance
– cornerstone of U.S. strategy
– Defense Policy Review Initiative (transformation
and realignment)
– First overseas visit by Secretary Clinton
Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
 U.S.-Korea alliance
– U.S. Forces Korea transformation
– Assumption of war-time operational control
2012
 U.S.-India relations
– Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004)
– Evolving strategic partnership
– Defence sales, maritime security cooperation,
counter-terrorism, HA/DR engagement
Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
 China: primacy of economic growth and
peaceful international environment
 Defence transformation and modernization
– Taiwan Strait contingencies
 U.S.-China relations
– Taiwan Relations Act
– Strategic and Economic Dialogue
– Resumption of military-to-military relations
– Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?
Comparing Defence Budgets
China’s Critical SLOCs
Anti-access/
area-denial
or power
projection?

Conventional
Anti-Access
Capabilities –
Ballistic
Missiles
Yulin Naval
Base
Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
 Japan
– Deployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden
 South Korea
– Redefinition of U.S-Korea alliance
– From coastal patrol to blue water fleet
– ROK to assume operational control 2012
 Rise of India’s power and influence
– Cooperation with US but independent actor
 Concern over China’s presence in Indian Ocean
 Emergence of East Asian security architecture
 The Next Decade
 Continuing impact Global Financial Crisis
 Hardy perennials
– Korean peninsula, Taiwan, South China Sea
 Security Dilemma – naval arms build up
– Submarines and other platforms
 Upgrade of Regional Security Architecture
– North East Asia and Indian Ocean deficits
– APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?
Maritime Strategic Overview
of the Asia-Pacific

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

School of Humanities & Social Sciences
University of New South Wales
at the Australian Defence Force Academy
Canberra, Australia