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This chapter surveys the most common business intelligence and knowledge-management applications, discusses the need and purpose for data warehouses, and explains how business intelligence applications are delivered to users as business intelligence systems. Along the way, youll learn tools and techniques that MRV can use to identify the guides that contribute the most (and least) to its competitive strategy. Well wrap up by discussing some of the potential benefits and risks of mining credit card data.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-2
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Study Questions
Q1 Why do organizations need business intelligence?
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2. Data-mining Tools
Use sophisticated statistical techniques, regression analysis, and decision tree analysis Used to discover hidden patterns and relationships Market-basket analysis
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Sales Data, Sorted by Customer Name and Grouped by Orders and Purchase Amount
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Sales Data Filtered to Show Repeat Customers and Formatted for Easier Understanding
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RFM Analysis
RFM analysis allows you to analyze and rank customers according to purchasing patterns as this figure shows. R = how recently a customer purchased your products F = how frequently a customer purchases your products M = how much money a customer typically spends on your products
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Bloominghams has not ordered in some time, but when it did, ordered frequently, and orders were of highest monetary value.
May have taken its business to another vendor. Sales team should contact this customer immediately.
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Davidson in middle
Set up on automated contact system or use the Davidson account as a training exercise
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Dynamic
User can change report structure View online
Measure
Data item to be manipulatedtotal sales, average cost
Dimension
Characteristic of measurepurchase date, customer type, location, sales region
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OLAP Reports
OLAP cube
Presentation of measure with associated dimensions a.k.a. OLAP report
Users can alter format. Users can drill down into data.
Divide data into more detail
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OLAP Product Family and Store Location by Store Type, Drilled Down to Show Stores in California
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OLAP Servers
Developed to perform OLAP analysis Server reads data from operational database Performs calculations Stores results in OLAP database Third-party vendors provide software for more extensive graphical displays. Data Warehousing Review OLAP services
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-27
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Regression Analysis
CellphoneWeekendMinutes = 12 + (17.5 * CustomerAge) + (23.7 * NumberMonthsOfAccount)
Using this equation, analysts can predict number of minutes of weekend cell phone use by summing 12, plus 17.5 times the customers age, plus 23.7 times the number of months of the account. Considerable skill is required to interpret the quality of such a model
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Neural Networks
Neural networks Popular supervised data-mining technique used to predict values and make classifications such as good prospect or poor prospect customers Complicated set of nonlinear equations See kdnuggets.com to learn more
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Market-Basket Analysis
Market-basket analysis is a data-mining technique for determining sales patterns. Uses statistical methods to identify sales patterns in large volumes of data Shows which products customers tend to buy together Used to estimate probability of customer purchase Helps identify cross-selling opportunities "Customers who bought book X also bought book Y
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-35
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Market-Basket Terminology
Support Probability that two items will be bought together Fins and masks purchased together 150 times, thus support for fins and a mask is 150/1,000, or 15 percent
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Market-Basket Terminology
Lift
Ratio of confidence to base probability of buying item Shows how much base probability increases or decreases when other products are purchased
Example:
Lift of fins and a mask is confidence of fins given a mask, divided by the base probability of fins. Lift of fins and a mask is .5556/.28 = 1.98
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Market-Basket Terminology
Confidence
What proportion of the customers who bought a mask also bought fins? Conditional probability estimate
Example: Probability of buying fins = 28% Probability of buying swim mask = 27% After buying fins, Probability of buying mask = 150/270 or 55.56%
Likelihood that a customer will also buy fins almost doubles, from 28% to 55.56%. Thus, all sales personnel should try to sell fins to anyone buying a mask.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-39
Decision Trees
Decision tree
Hierarchical arrangement of criteria that predict a classification or value Unsupervised data-mining technique Basic idea of a decision tree Select attributes most useful for classifying something on some criteria that create disparate groups
Decision Tree
If Senior = Yes
If Junior = Yes
Figure CE16-3
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Otherwise, reject the loan. Use this analysis to structure a marketing campaign to appeal to a particular market segment Decision trees are easy to understand and easy to implement using decision rules. Some organizations use decision trees to select variables to be used by other types of data-mining tools.
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Figure CE14-4
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Curse of dimensionality
Problem caused by the exponential increase in volume associated with adding extra dimensions to a (mathematical) space.
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Smaller than data warehouse Users may not have data management expertise
Need knowledgeable analysts for specific function
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Primary Benefits of KM
1. KM fosters innovation by encouraging the free flow of ideas. 2. KM improves customer service by streamlining response time. 3. KM boosts revenues by getting products and services to market faster. 4. KM enhances employee retention rates by recognizing the value of employees knowledge and rewarding them for it. 5. KM streamlines operations and reduces costs by eliminating redundant or unnecessary processes. 6. KM preserves organizational memory by capturing and storing the lessons learned and best practices of key employees.
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Expert Systems
Expert systems attempt to capture human expertise and put it into a format that can be used by nonexperts. Expert systems are rule-based systems that use IfThen rules similar to those created by decision-tree analysis, except they are created from human experts instead of datamining systems.
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Pharmacy Alert
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BI Portals
Portals might provide common data such as local weather, and links to company news, and to BI application results such as reports on daily sales, operations, new employees, and results of datamining applications. Authorized users are allowed to place reports, data-mining results, or other BI application results on their customized pages. BI application server pushes the subscribed results to the user.
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Report Server
A special case of a BI application server that serves only reports BI application servers track results, users, authorizations, page customizations, subscriptions, alerts, and data for any other functionality provided.
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2020?
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2020?
Through data mining, companies, known as data aggregators, will know more about your purchasing psyche than you, your mother, or your analyst. If you use your card to purchase secondhand clothing, retread tires, bail bond services, massages, casino gambling or betting you alert the credit card company of potential financial problems and, as a result, it may cancel your card or reduce your credit limit. Absent laws to the contrary, by 2020 your credit card data will be fully integrated with personal and family data maintained by the data aggregators (like Acxiom and ChoicePoint). By 2020, some online retailers will know a lot more about you, data aggregators, and most consumers purchases than well know ourselves.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-79
Semantic security
Unintended release of protected information through release of unprotected reports Equally serious and more problematic
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Should you let people think resulting model makes accurate predictions?
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Active Review
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