Technical and physical limits to adaptation

This motion is presented by Lucy Fisher and Esme Holtom

Introduction
Humans are remarkably adaptable

Low risk, high impact climate events are evidence for physical limits Should we rely on technology as a solution?

Climate impact scenarios

Rapid De-glaciations
Ice melt contributes to sea level rise Ice sheet dynamics are difficult to understand

Sea level rise threatens small island sovereign states

Change in ocean circulation

Substantial slowing or collapse of Thermohaline circulation Cooling in Europe by 2-3 degrees

Reduced precipitation
Change in direction of climate change

Major feedbacks
Methane reservoir underlying ocean floor and arctic permafrost Permafrost released five times more methane than expected

May lead to rapid increase in GHG concentrations

Mountain glacier melt

Mountain glacier melt has more than doubled over last 2 years. Increased water stress for billions of people

Other ecosystems
Coral reefs due to acidification Loss of boreal forests Coastal squeeze and disappearance of unique ecosystems

Technological responses?
Loss of water-supply from glacier melt
Thinning Arctic ice and threat to Inuit communities Loss of ecosystem services

Glacier melt
Artificial snow-making?

Constrained by water supply Not above -4C

No technological response beyond threshold temperature

Loss of Arctic sea ice

Inuit hunting on sea ice
30- 40% population dependent on as sole livelihood

Loss of Arctic ice limits to technological adaptation

Snowmobiles unable to locate thin ice
GPS as adaptation? But more risk-taking loss of traditional navigational knowledge

And when all the ice has gone..?

The loss of keystone species may

cascade through the socio-ecological system, eventually influencing ecosystems services that humans rely on, including provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services.
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005, in IPCC AR4 WGII)

Technological adaptation to loss of ecosystem services?

5-6 C warming: species extinctions 40% ecosystems affected
Loss of key species: eg. pollinators?

Water-filtration systems instead of watersheds?

Replacement for rainforests?

The future without limits

Biosphere 2Biosphere 3?

Emigration?

Technological limits to adaptation

Water-supply from glacier melt: snow-making limited by water
Inuit hunting on Arctic ice: GPS/ snow-mobiles limited by ice Loss of ecosystem services: Biosphere 3? - no reliable technological response

Conclusion
There are low probability, high impact climate scenarios that present physical limits to adaptation Cannot rely on technology to adapt to extreme climate events Are technological responses always adaptation? Mitigation is vital