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Money with
Central
Bank
Private
Govt
Total Money Supply in
Higher Fiscal Deficit
Money with
Central
Bank
Govt
Total Money Supply in
Higher Fiscal Deficit
Money
with
Central
Bank
Govt
Private Private Placement
With RBI and
Govt interest rate goes
Down or remains
same
10 Year G Sec Yield Trends ( %)
8.64
7.45
7.08
6.23 6.36
5.26
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00 10 Yr
5.00 5 Yr
4.00 1 Yr
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
July-08 Septemb October- Decembe Febr March-09
er-08 08 r-08 uary-09
Open Market Operation ( OMO)
• RBI controls money supply by selling or
buying securities.
• RBI buying securities : RBI lending money
; Repo Rate -1 day
• RBI selling securities : RBI borrowing
money ; Reverse Repo Rate -1 day
Repo Transaction
100+Repo Rate
Securities 105
CBLO Transaction
MIBOR &CBLO
10 Yr G Sec
5 Yr G Sec
Repo
Rate
1 Yr G Sec
Correlation ( Apr 2000- Dec 2006)
RREP 1.00
14.00
12.00
10 Yr
10.00
0.00
July-08 Septe Octobe Decem Februa Ma
mber- r-08 ber-08 ry-09 rch-09
08
Asset Backed Securities ( ABS)
CDO
Mortgage ABS in a
Backed Narrower
Securities Sense
( MBS) •Credit Card
Residential •Equipment
Mortgage •Student Loan
CLO CBO
Commercial •Music Royalties Loan owned Bonds
Mortgage By Traded in the
Bank Market
Process of securitisation
Credit Originator /
Enhancer Servicer
Provides Credit Receives Loan sale Receives inflow
Enhancement Fund From reference
Transfer
Of Assets Issuer of
Trustee S.P.V. Underwriter
Principal Debt
And Interest Securities
Minus
Servicing Revenues from
Fees Debt Distribution
Securities Of
Disburses
Revenues to Debt Securities
Investors Investors
Is investment in securitised asset
risky ?
• The investor may not know the quality of the
underlying assets.
• The investor is depending on the credit rating
assigned by the rating agency.
• If the underlying asset quality is bad but rating
is higher , investor incurs the risk .
• Under such situation, securitisation is definitely
riskier.
• Securitised instrument of Real Estate and
Finance companies are riskier as the underlying
asset is riskier by nature.
IO and PO Securities
1500.00
1000.00 PO PO
Amount
500.00 IO
IO
0.00
Months
Time in Month
PO Securities – Principal Rs
100000/-
• Total payments to a PO are fixed—
– all that is uncertain is the timing of those
payments.
– Prepayments are desirable because the holder
of the PO receives the money earlier.
– With interest rate decrease , the prepayment
probability goes up .
– So the investor would get the money faster .
– The price would go up .
PO Securities – Principal Rs
100000/-
• A invests in PO for 120 months. Under normal
interest rate ( 10%p.a.) , the investor would get
back the money ( Rs 1,00,000/-) after 120
months.
• If the interest rate goes down , the loan borrower
would pay the money earlier as the same EMI
would close the loan earlier.
• So the investor would recover the same money
( Rs 1,00,000/- ) earlier.
• The price in the market should go up.
• PO and interest rate is inversely proportional.
IO Securities – Interest amount of
Rs 58581 @ 10% p.a. for 120 months
• A invests in IO for 120 months. Under normal interest
rate ( 10%p.a.) , the investor would get back the money
( Rs 58581/-) after 120 months.
• If the interest rate goes down , the loan borrower would
pay the money earlier as the same EMI would close the
loan earlier.
• So the investor would recover lower amount of money
because interest amount would be lower . For example,
if interest rate goes down to 9% , the investor would not
get Rs 58581/- but it would get Rs 48,255/- . But PO
holder would get the amount of Rs 1,00,000/- but in 113
months.
• The price of IO would go down with interest rate .
Interest Rate and Price
Instrument Yield going up Yield going down
would result in would result in
Price Price
Discounted Decrease Increase
Instrument
Investment Pattern
20 4 1 +4 1+10
Short Term Gilt Fund Equity
Debt Fund Fund
( 1yr
instruments ,
T bill,
CBLO )
Investment Advice – Aggressive &
Active Management
Total 1-3 3-9 9-18 18-24 More
Fund Months Months Months Months than 24
( Rs lacs) ( Rs lacs) ( Rs lacs) ( Rs lacs) ( Rs lacs) Months
( Rs lacs)
20 5 5 10
Investment Pattern
20 4 5 + 10
Short Term Gilt Fund
Debt Fund
( 1yr
instruments ,
T bill,
CBLO )
Key Take way from sessions
• Debt Fund behaves like equity fund in most of the cases .
Why ?
– Investment horizon is less than maturity of invested instrument
.
• Interest rate prediction is important :
– Increase in interest rate would reduce the debt instrument’s
value except IO ;
– Increase in interest rate is associated with :
• Higher inflation ;
• Higher borrowing by Government ;
• Higher MSS by RBI ;
• Point prediction is difficult but range prediction is more
realistic attempt.
Key Take way from sessions
• If interest rate is going up , invest in short
maturity investment with matching
maturity and roll over till the interest
starts coming down.
• In times interest starts coming down ,
invest in gilt fund.
• For long term investment , invest in
Equity.