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Main Points
The United States spends more than $600 billion on defense each year, and close to one trillion dollars on national security Defense spending grew markedly between 1998 and 2010, and has dropped in real terms since then The size of future defense budgets is uncertain Over the longer term, federal fiscal problems will probably lead to significant cuts in defense budget Achieving the savings that are likely to be needed will require significantly smaller forces and a shift in national security strategy
MIT Security Studies Program July 2013 2
Overview of Talk
U.S. defense and security budgets in perspective The Budget Control Act of 2011 and this years sequestration Federal fiscal pressures on the defense budget Cost growth inside the Department of Defense Shaping forces under significant cutbacks Budget Process 101: Planning and budgeting for defense
FY 2012
FY 2013
499 81 18 8 605
40%
Russia
4%
4% 8% 17%
Interest 6%
Medicare/caid 20%
800
600
400
200
0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Fiscal Year
MIT Security Studies Program July 2013 8
Percent
25 20
15
10 5 0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Fiscal Year
MIT Security Studies Program July 2013 9
FY 2014 Request
561 88 649 73 17 55 46 150 900
10
Sequestration
What it is: automatic cutbacks from appropriated funds that reduce every affected account by the same percentage Affected accounts: national defense except for military personnel; non-defense discretionary; some Medicare and other entitlements How much in 2013: About 8 percent from national defense, 6 percent from non-defense discretionary How long: Only for FY 2013; for next 8 years, the administration and Congress have a choice
MIT Security Studies Program July 2013 12
Non-War National Defense Budget Under Presidents FY 2013 and FY 2014 Plans and Budget Control Act
700
600
500
400
300
200
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
Fiscal Year
13
14
Federal Outlays
Percent of Gross Domestic Product
30.0
25.0
20.0
Interest
15.0
Mandatory
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
15
Fiscal Year
25.0
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1930
Revenues Outlays
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
16
Fiscal Year
17
18
19
300
200 100 0 2001
2006
2011
MIT Security Studies Program July 2013
2016
2021
20
Fiscal Year
21
Procurement 19%
O&M 40%
22
23
24
25
Army 24%
Navy 29%
26
20%
10%
Budget Reduction
Distribution of Cuts Active Army Brigades Navy Ships Active Marine Corps Divisions Air Force Tactical Squadrons Active-Duty End Strength (millions)
-10%
Proportional 32 (-14%) 250 (-17%) 2+ 47 (-13%) 1.2 (-10%)
-16%
Rebalance toward Asia 26 (-30%) 235 (-22%) 2+ 42 (-22%) 1.1 (-17%)
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Purposes of PPBE
Executive management
Civilian control of military
Resource allocation
Determine centrally where the money goes
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Apr 2013
33
Services, Agencies OSD CAPE, Comptroller; JCS; OMB Signed by Deputy Secretary OSD OMB
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36
Authorizing Committee
Budget Resolution
Concurrent Budget Resolution and Conference report Conference Reconciliation Instructions Authorizing Committee Authorizing Committee Budget Authority Appropriations Committee
House/Senate Floor
Subcommittees
Conference
House/Senate Floor
Conference
Authorization Bill Reconciliation Bill MIT Security Studies Program White House July 2013 Appropriations Bill
Conference
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Defense, Military Construction and Veterans: Hearings, Markup, Votes Begin 2014 fiscal year Emergency supplemental appropriations as needed
Appropriation Subcommittees; floor votes; conference committees; floor votes; to President for signing
38
Back-Up Slides
40
300
200 100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021
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