WELCOME TO OUR PRESENTATION

Sub: Human Resource Planning & Development Sec: A Faculty : Farheen Hassan

Group Members
HIMEL, NISARUL HASAN 12-95747-2

HOSSAIN, MOHAMMAD NOOR

TONY, BAHAUDDIN HOSSAIN RASUL SHOURAV

12-95690-2
12-96026-2 11-95242-3

Expert Forecast
Methods of Collecting Information from the

Experts: Interviews, questionnaires, and telephone conference. Two methods of Expert Forecast:

-Delphi technique and -Nominal Group Technique.

DELPHI TECHNIQUE

- A structured judgmental method to achieve the group consensus on employee forecasting.

- The experts do not meet face to face. It is more economical if they are
assigned to different locations. It also improves the quality of decision making by avoiding disrupting personality conflict and preventing the

loudest group member dominating the decision.

- The first step is to develop anonymous questionnaire that ask the experts opinion.

Delphi Technique (Continued)

The results are collected, compiled and a second

set of anonymous questionnaire is prepared based on that. The process continues through several more until the experts agree on a judgment. This is how the experts can also learn from one another and modify or elaborate their position in the next round. It is time consuming. The experts should be knowledgeable.

THE DELPHI PROCESS

1. A Facilitator Provides the participants with initial questionnaires. Collects answers to these questionnaires and comments. The facilitator then filters out irrelevant information. This process avoids groupthink and the problems associated with group dynamics. The facilitator then creates the questionnaires for the second round and sends them to the participants.

The Delphi Process (Continued)

2. A series of information collection rounds: Here, participants can change their previous forecasts anonymously, see new information which is coming from other participants, and comment on this. In face to face meetings people tend to stick to their originally stated opinion to avoid loosing face, but with the Delphi Method they can change their mind at any moment. 3. Participant anonymity: It is normal for participants to remain anonymous at all stages to enable honest opinions to come through the process.

ADVANTAGES OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

- More participants can be involved than a face to face method allows. - The time and cost of participants travelling to meetings is saved.

- It gives participants the flexibility to modify their views as they learn from
others, without the social pressure that exists in face to face meetings. - The remote process also avoids negative group influences such as

dominating members and political lobbying.

- Provides a structured way for a group of people to make decisions in a political or emotional environment about complex problems.

Disadvantages of the Delphi Technique

It can be difficult to maintain active participation by participants the

whole way through, and so drop outs are more likely than at one off meetings.
The decision-making process is less transparent than face to face

meetings, and can be more easily influenced by the coordinator.

The process is time consuming to coordinate and manage.

NGT- N OMINAL G ROUP T ECHNIQUE

The NGT is a group of problem solving process which involves - problem identification, - solution generation and - decision making. This technique was originally developed by Delbecq and VandeVen, and has been applied to education program planning by Vedros.

NGT-

(CONTINUED)

- Group brainstorming rather than single opinion. - A silent generation of ideas are done and then open discussion on the ideas are held. - The group tries to find out the best solution out of the discussion. - It avoids the domination of single opinion and also works in a complex situation when single cannot master over the situation.

EFFECTS

As compared to interacting groups the NGT groups provide more unique ideas, more balanced participation between group members, increased feelings of accomplishment, and greater satisfaction with idea quality and group efficiency.

WHEN TO USE NGT

- When some group members are much more vocal than others. - When some group members think better in silence. - When there is concern about some members not participating. - When the group does not easily generate quantities of ideas. - When all or some group members are new to the team. - When the issue is controversial or there is heated conflict.

ADVANTAGES OF NGT

- It has clear advantage in ensuring equal participation.

- In many cases it can be a time-saving technique.

- It produces a large number of ideas and providing a sense of closure that is often not found in less-structured group methods. - Voting is anonymous, there are opportunities for equal participation of members.

DISADVANTAGES OF NGT

- It lacks flexibility by being able to deal with only one problem at a time. - Opinions may not converge in the voting process, cross-fertilization of ideas may be constrained, and the process may appear to be too mechanical. - Another disadvantage is the amount of time needed to prepare for the activity.

NGT PROCEDURE

1. Introduction and explanation

2. Silent generation of ideas 3. Sharing ideas

4. Group discussion
5. Voting and ranking

NGT PROCEDURE
(CONTINUED)

1. State the subject. Clarify the statement as needed until everyone understands it. 2. Each member silently thinks and writes down as many ideas as possible in a set

period of time.
3. Each member in turn states aloud one idea. Facilitator records it on the flipchart. No discussion is allowed. 4. Discuss each idea in turn. Wording may be changed; Ideas may be stricken from the list only by unanimous agreement. Discussion may clarify meaning, explain logic, raise and answer questions, state agreement or disagreement. 5. Prioritize the ideas using voting or list reduction.

EXAMPLE OF PROCEDURE

Table 1. List of Options

Why is our Forecast Analysis cycle time so high?
A B C D E F There are new, unfamiliar failure mechanisms seen in customer returns. The FA engineers still lack training to complete FA's quickly. The FA lab does not have enough equipment and accessories. There are too many signatories in the FA report approval system. The FA system is not efficient with so many non-value-added requirements. There are not enough FA engineers to handle the incoming work load.

EXAMPLE OF PROCEDURE

Table 2. Example of John's Ranking Sheet

John A B C D E F 3 2 6 1 5 4

EXAMPLE OF PROCEDURE

Table 3. Example of a Final Output of an NGT Session

John A 3 Ryan 1 Paula 4 Robin 4 Simon 4 Total 16

B
C D E F

2
6 1 5 4

3
5 2 4 6

1
5 3 2 6

1
3 2 5 6

2
6 1 3 5

9
25 9 19 27

An organizational Example
A sales manager, wanting to put together a presentation for a key customer, brings together the account manager, the product marketing manager and the two key product engineers. The quality manager facilitates to run an NGT session for them, where they quickly find the key product benefits over the competing products, and come up with a compelling value proposition.

Any Question ?