Global Trend of 2020

Agenda
 New Global Player (Introduction)
 The Globalization

 Rising Powers (Asia)

 Rising Powers (Others)

 New Challenges to Governance

 Pervasive Insecurity

 Policy Implications
Methodology
 Workshops
 CIA Headquarters (September 2003)
 Africa NIC 2020 Workshop—Johannesburg, South Africa (March
2004)
 Russia and Eurasia NIC 2020 Workshop—Budapest, Hungary
(April 2004)
 Asia NIC 2020 Workshop—Singapore (May 2004)
 Consultation on Preliminary NIC 2020 Draft with UK experts and
the International Institute of Strategic Studies—London, England
(October 2004)
 Created an interactive, web site to serve as a repository for
discussion papers and workshop summaries.
 link to massive quantities of basic data for reference and
analysis.
 Interactive tools to created “hands-on” computer simulations to
develop their own scenarios
New Global Player I
 21 st century may be seen as the time when Asia,
led by China and India, economic growth, expanding
military capabilities, and large populations
 Germany in the 19 th century
 United States in the 20 th century
 2020 China’s gross national product (GNP) will
exceed that of individual Western economic powers
except for the United States. ( 將會取代日本成為第
二大經濟體 )
 India’s GNP will have overtaken or be on the
threshold of overtaking European economies
 Brazil, Indonesia, ..
New Global Player II
 European and Japan face a similar aging
crisis
 The crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a
head sometime over the next 15 years
 Russia has the potential to enhance its
international role with others due to its
position as a major oil and gas exporter
 low birth rates, poor medical care, and a
potentially explosive AIDS situation
New Global Player III
 World economy is likely to continue growing
impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80
percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per
capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher
 The expected next revolution in high technology involving
the convergence of nano-, bio-, information and materials
technology
 Total energy consumed probably will rise by about
50 percent in the next two decades
 Overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet global
demands
New Global Player IV
 Pervasive Insecurity
 The likelihood of great power conflict escalating
into total war in the next 15 years is lower than
before.
 Additional countries to develop nuclear weapons
 Terrorists might acquire biological agents or
nuclear device, either of which could cause mass
casualties.
The Globalization I
Globalization is likely to take on much more
of a ‘non-Western’ face ”
 Asia will continue to reshape globalization
 Establishing an Asian monetary fund
 Accumulate large currency reserves ( 外匯存底 )
 Interest-rate decisions taken by Asian central
bankers will impact other global financial markets
 China becoming educational magnets
The Globalization II
India and China probably will be among the
economic heavyweights.
 China’s gross national product (GNP) may be
the second largest in the world by 2020.
 India’s output could match that of a large
European country
The Globalization III
The greatest benefits of globalization will
accrue to countries and groups that can
access and adopt new technologies
 Medical breakthroughs
 cure some diseases and stretch lifespans
 improve food and potable water production
 expansion of wireless communications

 language translation technologies

The Globalization IV
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon
 Begin to revolutionize life itself by 2015.
 Increased quantity and quality of human life.
 Eugenics and cloning. ( 優生學和複製 )
 Medical breakthroughs
The Globalization V
 Issues in Biotechnology
 Eugenics
 Cloning of humans, including concerns over
morality, errors, induced medical problems
 The safety and ethics of genetically modified
organisms
 The use of stem cells
 Privacy of genetic profiles
 The danger of environmental havoc from
genetically modified organisms
 An increased risk of engineered biological
weapons
The Globalization VI
 討論了許多主題 , 但沒有一個有系統或有邏
輯的整理
 或許只是想表達 , 全球化帶來了經濟及科技的
快速進步 , 也改善了人類的生活 , 但同時也造
成了不少負面的作用
 Regionalisation or Globalisation?
Rising Powers
 Rising Powers: The Changing
 Geopolitical Landscape
 The likely emergence of China and India as new
major global players 中國、印度將成全球要角
 almost all population growth will occur in developing nations
that until recently have occupied places on the fringes of the
global economy
未來幾乎所有的人口成長將在發展中的國家
 The “arriviste” powers
中國，印度，或許還有巴西和印尼，可能建起新的國際強權
，打破二戰後的結構
 Only an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or a
major upheaval in these countries would prevent their rise.
除非全球化的發展改變或者國家內部發生動亂將遏止他們的
崛起 .
 sustained high economic growth+ expanding military
capabilities+active promotion of high technologies+
large populations 持續的經濟成長＋軍備能力擴張＋積
極提升高科技技術＋龐大的人口數量是這兩個國家在經
濟和政治權力崛起的因素

 其他可能的地緣政治體：巴西、南非、印尼、俄羅斯。
但也不能輕忽也許歐盟將更趨團結，日本將更活躍的可
能性。
 國與國彼此間的能源的需求亦將促進全球化，歐洲和俄
羅斯間的依賴互存將增強
 Rising Asia
 China
 中國希望建立其大國地位將反映在藉由和鄰近國家的經
濟槓桿作用＆持續強化軍備這兩者上
 東亞各國面對此一趨勢也將密切與北京保持經貿往來和
政治聯繫，可能也會顧及到中國的喜好，特別處理敏感
的台灣議題
 而日本、台灣、和南亞各國可能會彼此互助或求助於美
國來抗衡中國的影響力量
 Economic setbacks and crises of confidence
could slow China’s emergence as a full-scale
great power…. 然而經濟衰退＆信心危機可能減
緩中國的崛起 ..
 Economic setbacks and crises of confidence
could slow China’s emergence as a full-scale
great power…. 然而經濟衰退＆信心危機可能減
緩中國的崛起 ..
 就業機會不足導致動亂
 2020 年代將開始邁入老年化社會，中國將面臨無法
處理一連串的社會政策問題
 如果中國經濟下滑，將引發區域安全削弱、政局不穩
、毒品犯罪率攀升等問題
India I
 Indiawill be an economic magnet for the
region
 Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and other
countries may move closer to India to help build a
potential geopolitical counterweight to China ( 制
衡中國 )
 Pressure on resources—land, water, and
energy supplies.
India II
 Working-age population will continue to
increase well into the 2020s
 Democratic institutions vs. authoritarian
political system ( 民主體制 和 極權體制 )
 bureaucracy still remains ( 官僚體制 )
 caste-based political parties ( 種姓制度 )
 Larger proportion of population in poverty
 According to recent UN data, India has
overtaken South Africa as the country with
the largest number of HIV-infected people
Asia Conference
(05/May/2004)
Agenda
 Summary

 Identity
and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )
 ICT Revolution

 Governability

 Demographics

 The Future of Force

Demographics
 Realize that social welfare is an important part of
growth
 median age of citizens,
 medical care
 Pensions ( 退休金 )
 retirement is not an normal concept in Asia

 Migration and Border Controls

 Asian countries have traditionally been less tolerant of
immigration than the West.
 Gender Demographics
 women will have gained more rights and freedoms
Governance
 Democracy
 development of liberal, democratic states in much
of Asia is by no means certain
 the development of democratic processes could
be offset by the perceived need for strong
government.
 The two longest standing democracies in Asia—
the Philippines and India are example.
A New China Model
 Fifth Generation have been trained in Western-
style universities and have a good understanding
of international standards of governance
Future of Force
 Nuclear Development
 The most likely outcome is North Korea’s possession of
nuclear weapons by 2020, which could raise questions for
Japan and South Korea
 China’s “Peaceful Rise”
 China’s military spending will triple or quadruple
 surpassing Japan but less than U.S. spending.
 Dispute with Taiwan, unlikely to change significantly over
the next few decades.
 Japan
 China is interested in seeing Japan develop a greater
independence from the United States.
 Little chance that Japan would abandon its strong
relationship with the U.S
Scenario One
Fragmentation and Intrastate Conflict
 Southeast Asia
 Multireligious ( 多宗教的 )
 Multiethnic ( 多人種的 )
 Including Indonesia, the Philippines, and
Thailand.
Scenario Two
Regional Cooperation
 Association of Southeast Asian Nations
東南亞國 家聯盟
 Similar to NATO? ( 北大西洋公約組織 )
 Centralized authorities of nation states might
devolve to a greater extent to localities
 Diminish U.S. influence over economic and
security
 Main Key: Growth of global economy and China
 http://www.aseansec.org/
Scenario Three
Competitive States
 Resulting in accelerated levels of economic
Scenario Four
China – Japan Conflict
 Diaoyu Island ( 釣魚島 )
 Both governments agree that the islands are part
of Taiwan province.
 Discovery of greater oil reserves
 Nationalism and energy needs are the main
key
 Consider best interests lay in avoiding military
conflict, it would be improbable.
Backup Slide
Agenda
 Summary

 Identity
and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )
 ICT Revolution

 Governability

 Demographics

 The Future of Force

Asian Choices & Challenges
Revolution of Information Communication
Technologies (ICT)
 Raises productivity growth and falling prices
 Faces complex challenges in the choice
technologies it should adopt
 monopolised the telecommunication ( 壟斷 )
 invested heavily in the old wired networks
 A poor district could jump to the latest technology
 New ICT facilities can be installed by the private
sector, more efficient rather than by state
organizations.
Broadband
 Impact of Broadband
 Opening up new opportunities for interactive
applications, online games, virtual reality, digital
broadcasting
 E-Government, including education, health and
other government services
 Singapore provides a good example
 Problem of Boardband
 owners of Intellectual Property Rights
 music industry alone claims a loss of 7% of its income
in 2002, due to illegal downloading of music.
Agenda
 Summary

 Identity
and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )
 ICT Revolution

 Governability

 Demographics

 The Future of Force