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Chapter
Six
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
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Chapter Six
Discrete Probability Distributions
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
ONE
Define the terms random variable and probability
distribution.
TWO
Distinguish between a discrete and continuous probability
distributions.
THREE
Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution.
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Chapter Six continued
Discrete Probability Distributions
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
FOUR
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities
using the binomial probability distribution.
FIVE
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities
using the hypergeometric distribution.
SIX
Describe the characteristics and compute the
probabilities using the Poisson distribution.
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Types of Probability Distributions
Discrete probability Distribution
Can assume only certain
outcomes
Continuous Probability Distribution
Can assume an infinite number of
values within a given range
Types of Probability
Distributions
Probability
Distribution
A listing of all
possible outcomes
of an experiment
a n d t h e
c or re s pondi ng
p r o b a b i l i t y .
Random variable
A numerical value
determined by the
outcome of an
experiment.
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Movie
Continuous Probability Distribution
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Features of a Discrete Distribution
Discrete Probability Distribution
The sum of the
probabilities of
the various
outcomes is 1.00.
The probability
of a particular
outcome is
between 0 and
1.00.
The outcomes
are mutually
exclusive.
The number of
students in a class
The number of
children in a family
The number of
cars entering a
carwash in a hour
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Thus the possible
values of x (number
of heads) are 0,1,2,3.
From the definition
of a random variable,
x as defined in this
e xpe r i me nt , i s a
random vari abl e.
TTT, TTH, THT, THH,
HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH
Example 1
The possible outcomes for
such an experiment
Consider a random
experiment in which a
coin is tossed three
times. Let x be the
number of heads. Let
H r e p r e s e n t t h e
outcome of a head and
T the outcome of a tail.
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EXAMPLE 1 continued
The outcome of zero
heads occurred once.
The
outcome
of one
head
occurred
three
times.
The
outcome of
two heads
occurred
three times.
The
outcome of
three heads
occurred
once.
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The Mean of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
)] ( [ x xP E =
Mean
The central location of the data
The long-run average value
of the random variable
Also referred to as its
expected value, E(X), in a
probability distribution
A weighted average
where
o represents the mean
oP(x) is the probability of
the various outcomes x.
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The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
Variance
Measures the
amount of spread
(variation) of a
distribution
Denoted by the Greek
letter s
2

(sigma squared)
Standard deviation is
the square root of s
2
.
)] ( ) [(
2 2
x P x o E =
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#houses
Painted
#of
weeks
Percent
of weeks
10 5 20 (5/20)
11 6 30 (6/20)
12 7 35 (7/20)
13 2 10 (2/20)
Total percent 100
(20/20)
Dan Desch, owner of College Painters, studied his
records for the past 20 weeks and reports the
following number of houses painted per week.
Physics
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EXAMPLE 2
)] ( [ x xP E =
#houses
painted (x)
Probability
P(x)

x*P(x)
10 .25 2.5
11 .30 3.3
12 .35 4.2
13 .10 1.3
= 11.3
Mean number of
houses painted
per week
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#houses
painted (x)
Probability
P(x)

(x-)

(x-)
2

(x-)
2
P(x)
10 .25 10-11.3 1.69 .423
11 .30 11-11.3 .09 .027
12 .35 12-11.3 .49 .171
13 .10 13-11.3 2.89 .289
o
2
= .910
)] ( ) [(
2 2
x P x o E =
Variance in the number of
houses painted per week
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Binomial Probability
Distribution
The trials are independent.
Binomial Probability Distribution
An outcome of
an experiment is
classified into
one of two
mutually
exclusive
categories, such
as a success or
failure.
The data
collected are
the results of
counts.
The
probability
of success
stays the
same for
each trial.
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Binomial Probability
Distribution
= x nC
n!
x!(n-x)!
n is the number of trials
x is the number of observed successes
p is the probability of success on each trial
x n x
x n
C x P

= ) 1 ( ) ( t t
Binomial Probability Distribution
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551 . 000 . ... 172 . 250 .
) 80 (. ) 20 (. ... ) 80 (. ) 20 (. ) 3 (
0 14
14 14
11 3
3 14
= + + + =
+ + = > C C x P
The Alabama Department
of Labor reports that 20%
of the workforce in Mobile
is unemployed and
interviewed 14 workers.
What is the
probability that
exactly three are
unemployed?
At least three are
unemployed?
2501 .
) 0859 )(. 0080 )(. 364 (
) 20 . 1 ( ) 20 (. ) 3 (
11 3
3 14
=
=
= C P
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Example 3
956 . 044 . 1
) 20 . 1 ( ) 20 (. 1
) 0 ( 1 ) 1 (
14 0
0 14
= =
=
= >
C
P x P
The probability at least one is unemployed?
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Mean & Variance of the Binomial
Distribution
t = n
o t t
2
1 = n ( )
Mean of the Binomial Distribution
Variance of the Binomial Distribution
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Example 3 Revisited
Mean and Variance Example
Recall that t=.2 and n=14
= nt = 14(.2) = 2.8
o
2
= n t(1- t ) = (14)(.2)(.8) =2.24
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Finite Population
The number of homes
built in Blackmoor
A population consisting
of a fixed number of
known individuals,
objects, or measurements
Finite Population
The number
of students in
this class
The number of cars
in the parking lot
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Hypergeometric Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
Only 2 possible outcomes
Sampling from a finite population
without replacement, the probability of
a success is not the same on each trial.
Results from a count of
the number of successes in
a fixed number of trials
Trials are not independent
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Hypergeometric Distribution
P x
C C
C
S x N S n x
N n
( )
( )( )
=

where
N is the size of the population
S is the number of successes in the population
x is the number of successes in a sample of n
observations
Hypergeometric Distribution
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Hypergeometric Distribution
The size of the sample n is
greater than 5% of the size
of the population N
The sample is selected from a finite population
without replacement (recall that a criteria for
the binomial distribution is that the probability
of success remains the same from trial to trial).
Use to find the probability
of a specified number of
successes or failures if
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EXAMPLE 5
What is the probability
that three of five
violations randomly
selected to be investigated
are actually violations?
The Transportation
Security Agency has a
list of 10 reported
safety violations.
Suppose only 4 of the
reported violations
are actual violations
and the Security
Agency will only be
able to investigate
five of the violations.
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The limiting form of the
binomial distribution
where the probability of
success t is small and n is
large is called the Poisson
probability distribution.
The binomial distribution
becomes more skewed to
the right (positive) as the
probability of success
become smaller.
238 .
252
) 15 ( 4
) )( (
)( (
) 3 (
5 10
2 6 3 4
5 10
2 5 4 10 3 4
= = =
=

C
C C
C
C C
P
Poisson probability
distribution
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Poisson probability
distribution
P x
e
x
x u
( )
!
=

where
is the mean number of successes
in a particular interval of time
e is the constant 2.71828
x is the number of successes
where
n is the number of trials
p the probability of a
success
Variance
Also equal to np
Poisson Probability Distribution
= np
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EXAMPLE 6
1465 .
! 2
4
!
) (
4 2
= = =

e
x
e
x P
u x

The Sylvania Urgent

Care facility specializes
in caring for minor
injuries, colds, and flu.
For the evening hours of
6-10 PM the mean
number of arrivals is 4.0
per hour. What is the
probability of 2 arrivals
in an hour?