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Reference(s)
Dettmer, H. William, Goldratts Theory of
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sessions during the initiation phase (definition and conceptualization stage) of a project
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Why trees??
To get a complete picture of what is going
on To model all of the causation involved To see what is related to what To identify the core problem To validate a proposed injection
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What to change?
Team constructs a current reality tree
(CRT) Team starts by listing all undesirable effects (UDEs) Team inter-relates these by use of a tree, called a CRT In the current reality tree, the team traces UDEs back to a core problem (CP)
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EXAMPLES OF UDEs
Due dates are often missed It is difficult to respond to urgent demands There is too much expediting Inventory levels are too high
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should be finding root causes We consider undesirable effects to be symptoms We look for a common cause that is the source for most of the undesirable effects
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successfulon-time, within budget and with full functionality Software projects are always the slowest projects to be completed
TI merged two divisions of the firm.
It took 6 months to do all logistics It took 18 months to reconcile all of the software differences
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Project Managers Do not train and teach Users about software development
Software Project Managers Are poorly trained And unaware of pitfalls in 14 Software projects
We conclude.
That the core problem is with poorly
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the question
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assumptions Breaking an assumption leads to a breakthrough called an injection At this point the team is unconcerned with the practicality of the injection
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What is an injection?
a solution to the core problem a strategy that will mitigate all of the UDEs Injections that appear impossible to
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now Creating well-trained project managers takes time Instant project management expertise is required now SOLUTION: Expert system for project management
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INJECTION
Create a PM expert system
An advisory system that novice Project Managers can seek and obtain advice from.
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(FRT) is constructed One purpose of the Future Reality Tree is to validate that the injection will achieve the desired effects (DEs)
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Examples of DEs
Due dates are rarely missed Demands are met 99% of the time There is little expediting Inventory levels are low There are no material shortages Production lead times are short or satisfactory
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Due date perf. is high Customers rely on quick responses There is little expediting Inventory levels are reduced significantly Material is available when needed Customers rely on quick responses
writing them with a positive tone as DEs Place DEs at the top of the limbs in the FRT At the bottom of the FRT place the injection Building the FRT is a two-phase process
Build considering only positive, ideal links, and assuming win/win strategies Add negative loops later
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injection (a breakthrough) might affect the overall performance of the system. The Future Reality Tree is the validation that a collection of injections will turn all of the UDEs into DEs
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Software Development Software Development Projects take reasonable Projects take too long Lengths of time
Software Development Software Development Projects arent too Projects cost too much costly
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Users Users are are untrained more trained andand not sophisticated sophisticated
Software Project Managers use an expert system To avoid pitfalls in 28 Software projects
Last Question.
achieving a flying pig (an injection that appears impossible to achieve or implement)
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The intermediate objectives need to be sequenced The prerequisite tree does the sequencing
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OBSTACLE
INTERM. OBJECTIVE
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Objective
A
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A Construct Project Management Expert System Codify PM Body of Knowledge into Expert System Shell No well-defined ES Architecture
Decide upon
Obtain PM Body of Knowledge
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produces the desired effects We found the milestones of the journey-the intermediate objectives (IOs) The question now is What specific actions must we take?
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but on what we plan to accomplish For each IO, a specific action or set of actions are determined and initiated Causing a specific change in reality is the imperative The transition tree provides a ROAD MAP for getting from here to there!
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Condition of reality
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Unfulfilled need
Specific action
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Expected effect
Condition of reality
Specific action
Unfulfilled need
Specific action
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A
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New Hampshire (Goldratt Institute) , spend two weeks and $10,000 To learn more, please refer to www.eligoldratt.com
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