Airport Forecasting

Forecasting Demand
Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport
Used for developing the airport master plan or aviation system plan

Master Plan

Data used to predict future

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Airport service area Origins and destinations of trips Demographics and population growth of area Economic character of area Trends in existing transportation activities for the movement of people, freight, and mail by various modes Trends in national traffic affecting future development Distance, population, and industrial character of nearby areas having air service Geographic factors influencing transportation requirements Existence and degree of competition between airlines and among other modes of traffic

Estimates Needed
1. The volumes and peaking characteristics of passengers, aircraft, vehicles, freight, express, and mail
2. The number and types of aircraft needed to serve the above traffic 3. The number of based general aviation aircraft and the number of movements generated

4. The performance and operating characteristics of ground access systems

Forecasting by Judgement
Delphi Method: A panel of experts on different subjects is assembled and asked a series of questions and projections which they take into account to determine a forecast

Trend Extrapolation
450000

Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

PAX 198128 259317 295780 340717 360670

400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

375000 390000

Top-Down Model
Extrapolate 1, given 2, get 3:

Cross Classification Model

Cross Classification: examines the behavioral characteristics of travelers
Travelers broken down into classifications based upon these characteristics

Based on the belief that certain socioeconomic characteristics influence the inclination for travel
Market study performed to determine the travel characteristics of the individual groups By knowing the different groups travel patterns, forecasts can be made by projecting the patterns out

Factors
Income Occupation Age Type and location of residence Education etc

Market Study
Market Study method does NOT require complex mathematical relationships
uses simple equations to generate a classification table or matrix Advantage: allows for discrimination between discretionary and non-discretionary travelers and the factors that influence both types
Discretionary = vacationers Non-discretionary = business traveler

Multiple Regression
Econometric Modeling: relates measures of aviation activity to economic and social factors Multiple Regression is used to determine the relationships between dependent variables and explanatory variables

Explanatory Variables
Economic growth Population growth Market factors Travel impedance Intermodal competition

Regression Equations
Linear Regression form:
Y = mx + b

Multiple Regression form:

Yest= ao + a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 + + anXn

Statistical Testing of Models

Tests performed to determine the validity of econometric models
The analyst needs to consider the reasonableness as well as the statistical significance of the model

Coeff. of Mult. Determination

Coefficient of multiple determination, R2 : measures the variation in the dependant variable that is explained by the variation in the independent variables
(e.g. R2 1.0 very good relationship)

Equation:
R2 =

(Yest - Yavg)2 (Y - Yavg)2

Coeff. of Mult. Correlation

Coefficient of multiple correlation, R: measures the correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables (e.g. R 1.0 very close correlation) Equation: R = (R2)1/2

Standard Error
Standard error of the estimate: measure of the dispersion of the data points about the regression line and is used to establish the confidence limits Equation:

y est =

(Y - Yest)2 m - (n+1)

Equations for Trend Line

1800 1600 y = 134.59x + 253.93 R2 = 0.9872

Year
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

ENP POP (thousand) (thousand)

469 515 638 758 935 996 1140 1361 1479 1651 250 260 272 274 287 296 307 317 326 332

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 250 260 272

274

287

296

307

317

326

332

Elasticity
Elasticity: the percentage change in traffic for a 1% change in fare or travel time
In the past, it was important Even greater significance today due to a deregulated industry
fare wars spoke and hub system

Elasticity
< -1, Elastic, people may change trip behavior
E = 0, Perfectly Inelastic, no effect on trip behavior -1 < E < 0, Inelastic, insensitive to price

q = p

( )

p q

Elasticity Example

Calculations
Tourists:
(-4000/2) (7/6000) = -2.33
< -1, Elastic people may change trip behavior

Commuters:
(-1000/2)(7/7500) = -0.47
-1 < E < 0, Inelastic insensitive to price

q = p

( )

p q

THE END