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Epidemiology
Lingbin Kong
Dept. Epidemiol, JNMC
What Is Epidemiology?
• Basic sciences
• Clinical sciences
• Preventive medicine ( public health )
• Epidemiology
Position of Epidemiology in
Biomedical Sciences
• ┌──── ─────────────────────────┐
• │Molecular Cell Organ / Tissue Individuals Family Community │
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• │Mol Biology│
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• │ Cell Biology │
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• │ Physiology + Pathology│
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• │Clinical Medicine │
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• │ Epidemiology │
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Definition of Public Health
• Concept
• Brief History
• Uses
• Causes of Disease
• Distribution of Disease
• Indicators for Measuring Risk
Introduction (cont’d)
• Fetus of medicine
• Rapid development
• Related to social and economic development
• Bridging medicine and public health
• Interdisciplinary science (multidisciplinary nature)
– Basic sciences
– Clinical sciences
– Statistics
– Computer technology
– Sociology
Concept of Epidemiology
• To study health of human population
• 降压治疗后
心血管事件减少率( 1/1000 )
• 人群 心血管事件发生率
• (%) 血压降低 10 / 5 mmHg
血压降低 20 / 10 mmHg
• Genetic epidemiology
• Molecular epidemiology
• Seroepidemiology
Epidemiologic Approach
• Epidemiologic Reasoning
• to determine whether an association exists between a
factor and development of the disease in question
• to derive appropriate inferences regarding a possible
causal relationship from the patterns of association
• to begin with descriptive data (disease distribution)
(shoe-leather epidemiology~door to door direct inquiry)
• further to demonstrate a causal relationship
• from observational data to preventive action
Causes of Disease
• Etiological factors
• Risk factors
• Exposure : health-related
– Environmental
• External
• Internal
– Personal characteristics
• Modifiable
• Un-modifiable
• Confounders
• Effect modifiers
Genetic Cause of Disease
• Specified by a single gene
• Autosomal dominant
• Autosomal recessive
• X-linked (recessive or dominant)
• Y-linked
• Mosaicism
• Digenic diallelic
• Digenic trialleic
• Disorders caused by mutant allele(s) at a specific
genetic locus
Genetic Cause of Disease
• Meiosis and mitosis errors
• Non-disjucction (e.g., trisomy 21)
• Reciprocal translocation
• X-autosomal trnaslocation
• Robertsonian translocation
• Inversions
• Abnormal chromosomes (deletion)
• Non-Medelian inheritance
• Imprinting
• Reciprocal duplication and eletion
• Mitochondrial disorders
• Comprelex disorders
• Multifactorial
Dynamic of Disease Transmission
• Environment Agent
Modes of Disease Transmission
• Horizontal
• common vehicles (indirect)
• single, multiple, continuous exposure
• person-to-person (direct)
• vector
• Vertical (mother-to-infant): via placenta, birth canal,
breast feeding
Horizontal Transmission
• droplet, nucleus of droplet, dust-borne
• water-borne
• food-borne
• soil-borne
• arthropod-borne (insect vector-borne)
• contact, direct & indirect (sex, skin, bite, etc.)
• blood-borne
• iatrogenic
• mixed
Modes of Disease Transmission (cont’d)
• Spectrum of diseases:
• clinical vs. subclinical
• apparent vs. inapparent
• carrier status
• endemic
• epidemic
• pandemic
• outbreak
• determinants of disease outbreak
• herd immunity
• incubation period
Process of Epidemic
Reservoir
Natural
& Social
Factors
Route of Susceptible
Transmission Population
Study Methods
• Observational
– Cross-sectional
– Ecological ( Correlational )
– Case-control
– Cohort
– Proportionate mortality ratio
• Experimental
– Randomized clinical trials
– Community-based / field intervention trials
• Individual
• Population/Environment
– Quasi- / Semi-experiment
• Theoretical
– Mathematical model
– Methodology
Logical Reasoning in Etiological Studies
• Observation of Phenomena
• Corroboration ( Verification ) of
Hypothesis
Distribution of Disease
• Person~who
• Place~where
• Time~when
• Dynamic
Host Factors That May Be Associated with
Increased Risk of Human Disease
• Age Sex
• Race Religion
• Customs Occupation
• Genetic profile Marital status
• Family background Previous disease
• Immune status Stress
• Psychological Behavior
Environmental Factors That May Be Associated
with Increased Risk of Human Disease
• Proportion (percentage)
• Relative (ratio)
• Attributable
Absolute Indicators
• Incidence rate
• Attack rate
– Secondary attack rate
• Mortality rate (death rate)
• Cumulative mortality
• Prevalence
– infection rate, positive rate
– point vs period
• Case-fatality ratio
• Survival rate
– Direct method
– Life-table method
Some Considerations for Incidence
• Knowledge of the health status of study population
• Time of onset
• Specification of numerator: number of persons vs.
number of conditions
• Specification of denominator
• Period of observation
• Person-time denominator: unequal periods of
observation
• Constant k
Incidence Rate
• Attack Rate
• Number of persons ill with the disease
• ───────────── ×100 %
• Number of persons exposed
General Sources of Morbidity Statustucs
• Disease Reporting : communicbale disease, cancer
regsitry
• Data Accumulated as a by-product of insurance and
prepaid medical care plans : group health and
accident insurance, prepaid medical care plans, state
disability insurance plans, life insurance companies,
hosiptal insurance plans (Blue Cross), Railroad
Retirement Board
• Tax financed public assistance and medical care
plans : public assistance, aid to the blind, aid to the
disabled, State or federal medical care plans, armed
forces, Veterans Administration
General Sources of Morbidity Statustucs
• Hospitals and clinics
• Absenteeism records (industry and schools)
• Pre-employment and periodica physical examinations in
industry and schools
• Case-finding programs
• Selective service records
• Morbidity surveys on population samples (National
health Survey, National Cancer Surveys)
Mortality Rate
• Sporadic
• Epidemic
• Pandemic
• Outbreak
• Clustering
Large-scale Epidemiological Studies
• Etiological clues
• No incidence data
Ecological Study
• Concept
– Observational unit : population of group of individuals
– Ecological fallacy ( inferential bias )
• Uses
– Etiological clues
– Disease surveillance for estimation of epidemic
– Evaluation for intervention
– Cumulative exposure assessment in population
• Limitations
– Association between exposure and disease not evaluated in
individual
– Confounding not be controlled
– Average level unequal to individual level of exposure
Examples of Ecological Studies
• Pork consumption vs. Breast cancer
• GDP vs. Overall all-cause mortality
• Economic development vs. Colon cancer
• Population smoking vs. Lung cancer
• Alcohol consumption vs. Coronary heart dis.
• Cholesterol vs. CHD
• Protestant religion vs. Suicide
• Oral contraceptive vs. CHD
• Salt sale vs. Esophageal cancer mortality
Examples of Ecological Studies
• Asthma death vs. Anti-asthma drugs
• Water hardness vs. Cardiovascular mortality
• Pap smear vs. Cervical cancer mortality
• Near-sighted vs. TV watching
• Peptic ulcer vs. Lung cancer
• Tuberculosis vs. AIDS
• Saccharine consumption vs. Bladder cancer
• Thalidomide vs. Seal-like deformity
• Industrialization vs. Lung cancer
Steps in Investigation of An Acute Outbreak
• Test hypothesis
• further analyze existed data
• collect additional data
• Recommend control measures
• control of present outbreak
• prevent future similar outbreak
Causal Inference
• 前置:题目、署名、摘要、关键词
• 主体:引言、材料与方法、结果、讨论
( IMRaD )、小结、英语摘要、志谢
• 附录:公式、大批数据、重要照片、文献目
录、
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• John Snow 曾在英国女皇 Victoria 分娩时为她
施行氯仿麻醉。但他对影响霍乱流行的因素
和传播途径的调查研究,使他名垂医史。
• 不完全相信传统的学说(瘴气学说)。
• 不盲目迷信权威的说法, William Farr (the
superintedndent of the Statistical Department of the
Registrar General’s Office of England and Wales from
1839 to 1879) 认为霍乱流行与地势高低有关:
地势高,瘴气少;地势低,瘴气多。
Altitude and Cholera
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 从现象着手(观察 现象)
• ① 霍乱沿交通线传播,传播速度慢于人
的旅行速度。
• ② 霍乱是通过接触病人传播的,潜伏期
平均为 24~48 小时。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 根据现象提出假 设
• ① 霍乱“病毒”必须有生命的,微小的、
肉眼看不见。
• ② “ 病毒”可能是在肠子里生长繁殖,介
粪便传播。
• ③ 生活在肮脏环境中的人得病者多。
• ④ 水容易受污染。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 通过调查验证假设
• ① 调查伦敦宽街的流性情况及其与供水
的关系。
• ② 调查伦敦各区的霍乱流行情况及其与
供水的关系。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 病因研究的逻辑 思维方式
• 观察现象
• ↓
• 提出假设
• ↓
• 验证假设
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 关于宽街的霍乱流行情况
• ① 将 St. James Parish1954 年秋季流行情况
与 1832 、 1848~1849 、 1853 年的情况进行
比较。
• ② 将 1854 年曼诺华广场( 9/ 万)、圣焉丁
区( 33 )、金广场( 217 )、伯伟克街
( 212 )、圣全司广场( 16 )霍乱死亡率进
行比较。
• ③ 详细调查了该地区内可能引起霍乱流行
的因素:地势、土壤、街道、房屋、人口、
粪池、水坑、尘土、水井等。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• ④ 用标点地图画出病人的地区分布。
• ⑤ 调查了 St. James Parish 内病人的时间分布
, 8 月 27 日 ~9 月 2 日共登记 89 例病人,其
中 79 例是发生在 9 月 1 日 ~ 9 月 2 日, 4 例
发生于 8 月 31 日, 6 例发生于 8 月 27 日
~30 日。
Spot Map
Epidemic Curve
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• ⑥ 正面证据:回顾调查了 8 月 31 日 ~9 月 2
日发生的 83 例,有 73 例( 88% )都发生在离
宽街供水站不远处,另 10 例离供水站较远,
但其中 5 例经常到供水站挑水吃, 2 例儿童上
学时曾饮过供水站的水, 1 例据其父母说也可
能喝过供水站的水,只有 2 例情况不明。
• 正面证据:有几例死者虽然无证据表明其喝过
供水站的水,但可能喝过附近公共场所的饮料
,而该公共场所的饮料恰恰是用该供水站的水
做的。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• ⑩ 干预:经过上述调查认为圣全司教区霍
乱与宽街水站有关, 9 月 7 日就说服当局,
在 9 月 8 日将取水的手把拆除。 9 月 10 日霍
乱死亡病例明显下降。
• ①① 流行曲线显示,宽街霍乱呈单峰型,
提示有共同传染来源。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 分析伦敦各区霍乱死亡病例与供水的关系
( 1849~1853 年间)
• 两家水厂( Southward & Vauxhaul 和 Lamberth )均设在
Thames River 下游,均无过滤设备,末梢水中可见杂物,提示
严重污染。
• 该两水厂供水区的霍乱死亡率为 1,276~1,622/10 万,其它地区
仅为 430/10 万,有显著性差异( u=160 , P<0.0001 )。
• 1848~1853 年间, Lamberth 公司将取水点移到 Thames River 上
游,增添了过滤设备, 1953 年 Lamberth 公司供水区霍乱死亡
率( 64.6/10 万)与 Southward 公司供水区的霍乱死亡率
( 146/10 万)有显著差别( u=26.5 , P<0.001 )。
• 在 Southward & Vauxhaul 和 Lamberth 混合供水区,由
Southward & Vauxhaul 供水的地区霍乱死亡率为 315/ 万户,
Lamberth 供水的地区为 37/ 万户,有显著性差异
Water Supply by Different Companies
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 从此以后,英国改进了供水设备、逐步增添
了抽水马桶,几十年后又开始了水的消毒,
霍乱再未在英国出现。
Understanding John Snow on Cholera
• 结论
• ① 在霍乱弧菌发现前 30 多年,通过朴素的流
行病学观点,根据分布的原理,同样可以较准
确地判断疾病的传播途径。
• ② 在病原体尚未清楚知道的情况下,通过切
断因果链中的任何一个环节,可以起到阻断疾
病流行的作用。
• ③ 自然状态下的疾病传播途径与实验室条件
下是不同的,例如,黑斑蚊与黄热,白蛉与黑
热病,虱子与斑疹伤寒。