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MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING

J5

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Task Organization: JFSOCC CASPIAN

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JFSOCC

BAKU

2/75 IN
BOLSHIYE

QRF

SULAYMANIYAH JSOTF-AZ BAKU BOLSHIYE

JSOTF-IZ

JSOAC

NILE

FOB 101 (-) BOLSHIYE FOB 102

NSWTU-2
BAKU

D, 96th CA
BAKU

JSOAD-N
BOLSHIYE

JSOAD-S
NAKICHEVAN

SULAYMANIYAH

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Current ODA Disposition

JSOTF-IZ UW/DA-TGO : 12 ODAs
NILE - KDPI ODB 050 - Donboli Tribe Cell ODA 051 - Donboli Tribe Cell ODA 052 - Shikak Tribe Cell ODA 053 - Korahsunni Tribe Cell ODA 054 - Mamash Tribe Cell ODA 055 - Herki Tribe Cell ODA 056 - Haydaran Tribe Cell ODB 060 Mission Support ODA 061 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 062 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 063 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 064 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 065 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 066 - SR/DA-TGO

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JSOTF-AZ CST/DA-TGO: 17 ODAs

ODB 010 Mission Support ODA 011 5th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 012 1st AZ Artillery Bde ODA 013 10th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 014 -1st AZ Anti-Armor Bde ODA 015 2nd BCT 1AZ ID ODA 016 1st BCT 1AZ ID ODB 020 Mission Support ODA 021 1st AZ Division ODA 022 11th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 023 6th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 024 2nd AZ Arty Bde ODA 025 7th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 026 12th AZ Mech In Bde ODB 040 Mission Support ODA 041 - 16th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 042 - 14st AZ Artillery Bde ODA 043 - 15th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 044 - 8th AZ Mech In Bde ODA 045 - SR/DA-TGO ODA 046 SR/DA (SAPA)

JSOTF-AZ
SEAL PLT A SR/DA-TGO SEAL PLT B SR/DA-TGO

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CFSOCC

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JOA Caspian

JSOAC JSOAD-N FOB 01(-) Bolshiye Airport

CFSOCC CJSOTF NSWTU-2 D-96th CA

JSOAD-S FOB 02 TF SOAR TF RGR Nakichevan Airport

p. 152

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Time Line
T- Signature of

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KNOWN FACTS
Time Zone Delta (Z+4 hrs) Multinational Peace Implementation Force (MPIF) will enforce

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peace accord for 18 months.

COMCJTF CASPIAN will establish a Peace Implementation Force Deploy/establish UNAAMOFOR (United Nations Azerbaijan

Ahurastan Multinational Observer Force) to monitor violations of the Peace Accords

UNAAMOFOR monitor a demilitarized zone (30 KM south of AZ/AH

border) and No-Fly-Zone Over northern part of Ahurastan (north of 36 degrees, 30 minutes to the AZ-AH border) Cessation of Hostilities and offensive operations begining at S+48 hrs (22 April 2013 )

All personnel and organizations under the control of coalition or Ahurastan forces with military capability or within territory under their control (including armed civilian groups, national guards, army reserves, and military or civilian police forces) will cease offensive operations Offensive operations include projecting forces or fire forward of FLOT

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KNOWN FACTS

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All Ahurastan forces and equipment will withdraw

from Azerbaijan within 27 Days All Coalition forces and equipment will be withdrawn from Ahurastan territory (except the DMZ within 27 Days) All foreign forces, to include individual advisors, freedom fighters, trainers, volunteers, and personnel from neighboring and other states shall be withdrawn from the exclusion zone within 27 days. CJTF Caspian and UNAAMOFOR shall supervise the marking of the Zone of Separation and later the Demilitarized zone.

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Operational Time line

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Moscow Peace Accords 20 April 2013

Ahurastan withdraw all forces from

Azerbaijan NLT S+7 (27 April 2013) All

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ASSUMPTIONS
Transfer of authority begins S+2 (S =

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signature date of Moscow Peace Accords 20 April 2013)

Establish a NATO Peace Implementation

Force NLT 30 April 2013

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CJSOTF OPERATIONS TREE

CJSOTF MSNs UW CST Lines of Operation SR/DA-TGO FID CT Effect Disrupt LOC Cord Defense
Destroy HVTs

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Demobilization
Peace Enforcement

Disrupt SAPA
F3 Key Leaders Dissuade Sup.

Psyops CA

HCA Disrupt LOC

Counterinsurgency Mitigate Strategic QRF No Cap SR/DA-TGO

Destroy HVTs

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SPECIFIED TASKS

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Defend Azerbaijan Destroy Ahurastani Offensive WMD

Capabilities

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IMPLIED TASKS

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Conduct Special Operations in JOA Caspian to support JTF

commander Establish Coalition Support Teams (CST) to support Azerbaijans defensive and coordinate US support Conduct FID to support Azerbaijans IDAD Program Conduct UW to disrupt Ahurastans offensive capability Coordinate CAS for Azerbaijani forces Provide ISR support for Air Interdiction Provide PSYOPS LNOs to strategic communications working group (SCWG) Facilitate coordination of Population Control Measures. Conduct SR/DA-TGO to locate and facilitate the destruction of Ahurastans offensive capability Conduct Battle Damage Assessment for JTF Caspian on strategic HVTs

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Essential Task
Defend Azerbaijan
Locate and BPT facilitate the

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destruction of Ahurastans WMD capability. Conduct operations to disrupt Ahurastans offensive capability

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Critical Vulnerabilities
JSOAD-S / FOB 02 / TF Ranger within

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range of AH indirect fires and vulnerable to AH ground attack Infiltration into Ahurastan Sustainment of forces infiltrated south of AZ/AH border Ability to defend Azerbaijan against two tank divisions without Coalition Support. Limited DECON capabilities

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CONSTRAINTS

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Requirements (must do) Must support Azerbaijans Defensive operations Prohibitions (cant do) NGO assets will support earthquake relief 45 days until JTF forces are able to engage the enemy CDRUSEUCOM is approval for cross border operations into Ahurstan Limited Artillery support South of AZ border

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RISKS TO SOF
Operational
Lack of coalition support during initial AH attack

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Tactical
Ahurastans SAM threat during infil Chem attack at JSOADs- North & South and SPODs Fratricide due to shared AO with AZ and coalition forces

(H) use LNOs with appropriate comms package for coalition forces/establish necessary fire control measures at both CFLCC/division level (M)

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PROPOSED CCIR Contd

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FFIR
Interdiction of friendly air assets by Ahurastan ADA forces? Loss of 50% of a BDE Azerbaijans combat power? Loss of communications with FOB for 24 hrs? OR rate drops below 65% for air assets?

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EEFI

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Location of NILE bases in Ahurastan?

UAR recovery and resupply routes?