Securing Maritime Security in the South China Sea: Norms, Legal Regimes and Realpolitik

Carlyle A. Thayer International Studies Association San Francisco, April 6, 2013

Overview
Introduction Norms Legal Regimes Realpolitik Conclusion

Introduction
Emergence of Indo-Pacific region Importance of Sea Lines of Communication
Contested, congested, prone to armed strife

Three approaches not mutually exclusive

ASEAN norms Legal regimes Realpolitik

Norms
The ASEAN Way
Consensus decision-making Treaty of Amity and Cooperation ASEAN Regional Forum

South China Sea

Two ASEAN Statements 1992 and 1995 Declaration on Conduct of Parties 2002
Four CBMs and 5 cooperative activities

Legal Regimes
Guidelines to Implement the DOC Implementing the DOC Drafting the ASEAN Code of Conduct ASEAN-China discussions on the DOC ASEAN Foreign Ministers and Senior Official Meeting 20th ASEAN Summit

Legal Regimes
Proposed Elements of a Regional COC 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting ASEAN Foreign Ministers Retreat Cambodia-China Collusion? ASEANs Six Principles on the South China Sea Regional Code of Conduct (Indonesia) Philippines: UN Arbitral Tribunal

Realpolitik
ASEAN
Multilaterlism a weak reed

Vietnam
Lobby US and other major powers Self-help defence modernisation

The Philippines
Territorial defence/military modernisation Revitalize US alliance

Conclusion
Despite ASEANs efforts to promote norms and legal regimes China has become more assertive since 2007 Attempts to forge ASEAN consensus have not succeeded ASEAN weak and internally divided
Philippines and Vietnam pursue realpolitik

Prospects for maritime security are not good

Securing Maritime Security in the South China Sea: Norms, Legal Regimes and Realpolitik
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