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U.S. Association for Energy Economics Louisville Chapter Southern Baptist Theological Seminary March 27, 2013 | Louisville, KY by Paul Holtberg, Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial over next decade or so
includes projected technology cost and efficiency improvements, as well as cost reductions linked to cumulative deployment levels does not assume revolutionary or breakthrough technologies
Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013 2
Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports
U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 125 Consumption 100 Net imports 75 Production 50 19% 10% 2011 Projections 2035
9%
25
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
Domestic production grows rapidly over projection period, particularly natural gas and renewables, and liquids in the near term
U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu 120 History 2011 Shares of total U.S. production Projections
100
80 30%
Natural gas
35%
60
Renewables 12% 19% 28% Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids
14% 17%
40
20
0 1980
11%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and a slow and extended economic recovery
U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 120 2000 2011 Shares of total U.S. energy Projections
100 24% 80
28%
26%
8% 8% 1% 20%
Natural gas Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 11% Nuclear Liquid biofuels Coal 9% 2% 19%
60
6% 8%
23%
40 39%
20
36%
32%
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines
Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2.0 2005 2011 Projections
1.5
1.0
Energy use per capita Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP
0.0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level
Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2005 6.00 2020 (billion metric tons) 5.45 5.69 2040 2005 2011 Projections
AEO2013
--
-9.0%
-5.1%
(percent change from 2005) 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory
Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel History 250 High Oil Price 200 Reference 150 2011 Projections
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable
Global liquids supply million barrels per day History 120 2011 Projections
40
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
10
20
Consumption
15 Net imports 10 37% 37%
60%
45%
Domestic supply
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
11
U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency
U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History 2011 Projections
Biofuels excluding imports 20 12% Natural gas plant liquids 5% 38% 10 Liquids from natural gas and coal 17% 7% 1%
15
Petroleum production
38%
45%
37%
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
12
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 8 History 2011 Projections
Tight oil
4 Other lower 48 onshore 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
13
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski AEO2013, December 5, 2012
14
22% 11% 4% 2%
Diesel
CNG/LNG
29% 4% 13% 1% 4% 3%
E85
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
15
Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and slower growth in E85 sales
Renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 40 Legislated RFS in 2022 35 30 25 20 15 10 Corn ethanol 5 0
2011 AEO2012 AEO2013 2022 AEO2012 AEO2013 2035 AEO2013 2040
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
16
Natural gas
17
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis
ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price 2011 8 Energy prices to the electric power sector
2011 dollars per Btu 10 8 Natural gas 6
History 2011 Projections
6
4 2 Coal
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2 Competitive parity
0 1990
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
18
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 35 30 25 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Consumption 2011 Projections
0
-5 1990
Net imports
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
19
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
20
Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case
U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet 6 5 4 3 2 1 Alaska LNG exports 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports
Exports to Mexico
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
21
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 30 25 20 15 33% 10 5 0 2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
History
Projections *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Electric 32% power 31% 33% 2% 6% Industrial*
3% 13% 19%
22
2006
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
23
Electricity
24
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040
U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average)
History
14 12 10 8
2011
Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2011 0.9 2012-2040 0.9 Projections
6
4 2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
25
2011 Projections
Electricity Use
26
1,400
1980 CA Standard 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1978 1984 1989 1994 2000 2005 2010
Note: The standards are expressed as the maximum annual energy consumption for a product as a function of the product's adjusted volume. Source: DOE / EERE Building Technologies Office Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
27
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation
U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 6 5 30% 4 25% 3 2 1 13% 11% 19% 53% Oil and other liquids 4% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 1% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 1% 2040 13% 19% Renewables Nuclear 16% 17% Natural gas History Projections
1993
2011
42%
Coal
35%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
28
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040
Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year 600 500 400 Wind 300 200 100 0 1990 Biomass
Power sector Industrial CHP
History
2011
Projections
Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
29
30
31
150 100
50 0
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
32
40
20 0
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Paul Holtberg AEO2013, March 27, 2013
33
34