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by Al Myles, Economist and Extension Professor Department of Agriculture Economics Mississippi State University December 11, 2008
Presented at Oktibbeha County Leadership Forum
PURPOSE
Gives an historical overview of a communitys or countys retail trade sector Provides a basis for comparison with similar size communities and counties Is useful for identifying opportunities in the retail sector Similar to annual health physical at the doctors office. Tells you whats right and wrong.
Introduction
-Defining a towns trade area is an important first step in developing a strong retail sector. -This is the foundation of retail market analysis. It helps existing businesses to identify ways to expand their own market. -Increasing retail sales is one way an area can: capture dollars increase income improve employment multipliers of its local industries.
A trade area is the geographic region from which a town draws the majority of its retail customers. This can be done in several ways: 1. Conducting a traffic flow study, 2. Using a retail gravity model, 3. Using a zip code method, and 4. Using commuting data to define the trade area boundaries. Of these methods, COMMUTING and RETAIL GRAVITY approaches present the least amount of work to implement.
Traffic Flow. Is the random canvassing of parking lots at major locations in town at different times on different days and over several weeks. The locations might include The downtown area, Major shopping destinations such as shopping malls and centers, Wal-Mart Super Center, Home Depot, Krogers, and Other popular establishments in town.
One should combined the results of vehicle license plates from the different locations to obtain a composite count of vehicles from surrounding counties and compare them to regional commuting data. Results from a traffic study will usually reveal the major towns and counties that comprise the local trade area or market.
1. Rank order the number of cars from various counties in the region, and 2. Select the top five or six localities based on the highest frequency and/or maximum percentage (10% or more) of license plates in the area.
Commuting
Commuting time to work by local residents is another way of delineating a communitys retail trade area.
Converting commuting time to work into spatial distances or miles and plotting these data on a map, provide a visual picture of the geographic size of its trade area.
Reilys Law Another easy way of defining the retail trade area is to use a gravity model. In retail trade analysis, the most popular method is Reilys Law of Retail Gravitation. Reilys law is a rule-of-thumb used to ESTIMATE the distance customers will travel to PURCHASE goods and SERVICES after comparing price, quality, and style.
Reillys Law
The law assumes that people desire to shop in larger towns, but their desire declines the farther the distance and time they must travel to get there. Thus, LARGER TOWNS DRAW CUSTOMERS FROM FARTHER DISTANCES THAN SMALLER TOWNS.
The maximum distance a customer will travel to shop in a smaller town can be calculated using the following formula.
Population and Travel Distances in Community As Trade Area County Total Population Distance (FROM Community A to County Seat) 27 23 27 33 17 25.4 Trade Area Distance
22,000 1,543 23,799 2,145 7,169 8,489 10,/8/ 5.65 11.73 6.42 11.99 6.51 8.46
5.65 miles
Community B
11.99 miles
Community E S
Estimating Total Market Size Once the physical boundaries of the trade area have been identified, one should estimate the total market size. The total market consists of populations in the host community plus population from surrounding towns in the trade area.
2.
Trade Area Population Model Answers the basic question: What is the probability that a consumer located in communityi will shop in communityj, given the presence of competing towns? The spatial interaction model takes into account such variables as distance, attractiveness and competition in different sites. The probability (Pij)1 that a consumer located in communityi will choose to shop in communityj is calculated as:
Where: Aj is a measure of attractiveness of communityj, such as total retail sales, total personal income, or population of area. Dij is the distance from i to j. 2 is an attractiveness parameter from empirical observation. 3 is the distance decay parameter estimated from empirical observations. Simply, it is a parameter that reflects the propensity to travel by consumers. n is the total number of communities including the host communityi . The product derived from dividing by is known as the perceived utility of communityj by a consumer located in communityi.
POTENTIAL SALES
Potential sales for a given sector in a given county can be PCIi estimated as PSij Pi * SSPCj *
PCIs
Where -PSij is potential sales for commercial sector j in county i -Pi is population for county i -SSPCj is state sales per capita for commercial sector j -PCIi is per capita income for county i -PCIs is per capita income for state s
By comparing POTENTIAL with ACTUAL retail sales, one can determine whether the city has room for retail growth.
One should compare retail sales over SEVERAL YEARS to determine the LONG-TERM health of retail sectors in the city.
The potential sales are considerably greater than the actual sales of $1,011,060
Potential Sales: Interpretation Can compare estimates of potential sales for commercial sector j in county i to realized sales of commercial sector j in county i -Derive a value of captured or lost commercial sales for that sector and county
Pull Factors
Knowledge of the trade area is the first step in retail market analysis. Knowing the trade area, one can determine the size and pulling power of local merchants in the market using a concept call pull factors. Pull factors are ratios that estimate the proportion of local sales that occurs in a town.
See slide 23
PF
> < =
Value
1 1 1
Interpretation
Retailers drawing customers from outside trade area Retailers losing customers from outside trade area Retailers maintaining customers in trade area
Clay
0.76 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.76 0.73 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.70 0.73 0.71 0.71
Lowndes
1.07 1.12 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.11 1.19 1.01 1.03 1.07 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.99 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.00 0.98 1.03
Oktibbeha
0.78 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.79 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.83 0.84 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.83 0.84 0.82
Mississippi
0.79 0.82 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.74
0.00 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Clay Lowndes Oktibbeha Mississippi
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Some questions to think about when interpreting pull factors: 1. How has the pull factor changed over time? If it has increased, why do you think that is so? If it has declined, what are some possible causes? 2. How does the local pull factor compare to other counties? The state? Why do you think it is higher or lower? 3. What are some strategies your community can adopt to increase the amount of money drawn in from outside the county?
Table 1. Oktibbeha County With and Without Federal Funds Economic Strength Index
Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Average
With 4.02 3.95 3.94 3.88 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.06 4.12 4.18 4.19 4.16 4.02
Without 3.77 3.69 3.68 3.63 3.62 3.65 3.70 3.74 3.83 3.87 3.86 3.86 3.75
Median State Index 3.57 3.56 3.57 3.57 3.58 3.56 3.55 3.56 3.55 3.55 3.57 3.52
Rank 24 27 26 28 28 28 25 26 26 24 24 23
Trade Area Capture County Clay 21,751 Lowndes 98,344 Oktibbeha 51,136 Region Total 173,153
TAC to Population Projected Population 2019 Ratio 22,840 65370 51200 139,410 98.96 159.69 119.19 136.92
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Clay Series1 21,751 Low ndes 98,344 Oktibbeha 51,136 Region Total 173,153
Market Population
Region Total
Oktibbeha
Low ndes
Clay
100,000
150,000
200,000
Figure 3. TAC, 2002 Population, and Projected 2019 Population 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Clay Series1 Series2 Series3 21,751 21,979 22,840 Low ndes 98,344 61,586 65370 Oktibbeha 51,136 42,902 51200 Region Total 173,153 126,467 139,410
136.92
98.96 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 Clay Lowndes Oktibbeha Region Total
Series1 $363 $375 $398 $408 $435 $426 $447 $455 $529
Series1 $251, $272, $292, $300, $306, $302, $320, $328, $374,
Series2 $5,967
Summary
This presentation shows how a few simple techniques can be used to determine the geographic size of a towns trade area.
A trade area will often extend beyond its own geographic borders.
CONCLUSIONS
Trade area analysis shows how businesses can use existing data to learn more about their business power Trade area analysis provides information about: -The number of customers in a county -A sectors pull factor in the region -Potential sales in an area This information can all be used to create a plan or strategy for business owners
In economics, there is a technique called shift-share analysis. Its purpose is to take the change in employment for an area and decompose it into the three sources that caused the change. National growth Industrial growth Competitive effect
The industries are ordered according to how many people they employed in the latest year selected ( 2007) .
During the period 1990 to 2007, employment in Oktibbeha County grew by 2,869 jobs. In terms of employment growth, the most important industry was Professional and Business Services (1,411 jobs). It is followed by Education and Health Services( 1,376 jobs), and leisure and Hospitality ( 1,929 jobs). Table 1 presents the employment changes for the time period selected in Oktibbeha County, MS. During the period 1990 to 2007, employment in the county grew by 2,869 jobs.
1,376
2,025
2,299
274
13.5
Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Manufacturing Public Administration Financial Activities Construction Other Services Information Natural Resources and Mining
1,207
2,136
929
77.0
1,807 1,582
Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Information Natural Resources and Mining Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Manufacturing Construction Other Services Financial Activities Public Administration
24.7
98
44.8
177
286.8
1,136
24.7 24.7
461 298
23.2 17.9
434 216
Table 2: Shift-Share Analysis for Your Area, 1990-2007. 24.7 29 -15.2 -18
24.7 16 -20.3 -13
Overall, the national growth component was responsible for a total of 2,540 jobs in Oktibbeha County. An understandable goal of some local leaders is to make their economy more 'recession proof'. Economies with more employment in government, military and education will experience less fluctuation because those sectors are not directly related to the business cycle.
Also, economic sectors that are experiencing more growth will provide larger employment gains to a local economy.
Thus, the area has a concentration of employment in industries that are decreasing nation-wide, in terms of employment. The majority of these jobs can be attributed to decreases (-997 jobs) in the Manufacturing sector.
Questions?
THANK YOU!