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Matching products or industries with supply chain strategies Impact of the Internet on supply chain integration Effective distribution strategies
Direct shipment Warehousing Cross-docking
Push Strategies
Production decisions based on long-term forecasts Ordering decisions based on inventory & forecasts What are the problems with push strategies?
Inability to meet changing demand patterns Obsolescence The bullwhip effect:
Excessive inventory Excessive production variability Poor service levels
Pull Strategies
Production is demand driven
Production and distribution coordinated with true customer demand Firms respond to specific orders
But:
Harder to leverage economies of scale Doesnt work in all cases
Retailers
Push-Pull Systems
PushPull Boundary
Push-pull systems
A shift from a Push System...
Production decisions are based on forecast
to a Push-Pull System
Initial portion of the supply chain is replenished based on long-term forecasts
For example, parts inventory may be replenished based on forecasts
Build to order
Forecast demand Buys components Observes demand Assembles computers Meets demand
A push-pull system
Push-Pull Strategies
The push-pull system takes advantage of the rules of forecasting:
Forecasts are always wrong The longer the forecast horizon the worse the forecast Aggregate forecasts are more accurate
Risk Pooling impact
Pull
I Computers
II Furniture
III Grocery
H
Push
L L
Pull
Push
Thus
Thus
Demand-driven strategies
Demand forecast: Using historical data to develop long-term estimates of expected demand Demand shaping: Determining the impact various marketing plans such as promotions, pricing discounts, rebates, new product introductions and product withdrawal on demand forecasts Inaccuracy of the forecast has a detrimental impact on supply chain performance: lost sales, obsolete inventory, inefficient resource utilization Employing supply chain strategies to reduce the impacts of forecast inaccuracy
Select the push-pull boundary so that the demand is aggregated over different dimensions: products, geography, time Use market analysis and demographic and economic trends to improve forecast Determine the optimal assortment of products by store to reduce the impact of competing SKUs in the same market Incorporate collaborative planning and forecasting processes with customers to better understand market demand, impact of promotions, pricing and advertising
Impact of internet
E-business: a collection of business models and processes motivated by Internet technology and focusing on improvement of extended enterprise performance
Business-to-consumer (B2C): direct to customer, retail activities over the internet Business-to-business (B2B): business conducted over the internet between businesses
Impact of internet
Move from push to pull systems Significant failures as a result Move from pull systems to push-pull systems
Many click-and-mortar companies established. Many brick-andmortar companies opened online stores. Some has been successful: Dell, Cisco, Amazon. Many have failed
Grocery Industry
Example: Peapod
Founded early 90s Implemented a pure pull system. When an order is received, the products are picked from a nearby supermarket. Problems
Service problems: significant stock-outs Reduced profit margins
Book industry
Example: Amazon.com. Worlds largest bookseller
Founded in 1994 Implemented a pure pull system where it utilized Ingram Book Group to supply customer demand. Appropriate when Amazon was building its brand name. Issues became clear later when the demand increased
Ingrams distribution capacity supports many other booksellers. Service issues for Amazon during peak demand Amazon had to share its profit margins with Ingram
Amazon established several warehouses, where the inventory is procured using a push strategy, orders are shipped using a pull strategy
May still use a pure pull strategy for slower items
Worlds largest bookseller with $3.9 Billion sales in 2002. But yet to make a profit
Retail industry
Traditional retailers added online shopping component to their offering: Wal-Mart, Kmart, Target and Barnes and Noble. Advantageous over pure Internet companies
They already have the distribution and warehousing infrastructure in place Established brand name Easy returns and reverse logistics
Moving from a traditional business to internet based business may require different skills that are not present in many traditional businesses
E-fulfillment
Push-pull Parcel Important and highly complex Large number of geographically dispersed customers Relatively short
Spearman
Analyzes service level in pull systems Kanban system versus a base stock policy
Kanban would not place an order for more parts if a demand had arrived when there was no stock in the outbound stock point Kanban has a constant WIP
Stochastic ordering and Kanban systems. Two Kanban systems A and B, A has service times SA and B has service times SB.
If SA is stochastically larger than SB, then system A has worse service than system B Two normal distributions with same variance, mA < mB If SA is stochastically larger than SB, in the sense of increasing convex ordering, then system A has worse service than system B
Two normal distributions with same mean, sA < sB
Spearman - continued
The study argues that the superiority of Kanban systems is not the fact that material is pulled everywhere, but the fact that the WIP is constant Develops a system called a constant WIP system, or CONWIP
Pulling only at the first station Pushing on the rest of the chain using CONWIP backlog
Can utilize common setups Consumption of item A may lead to start of the production for item B
Rajagopalan
Develops a model to decide whether an item should be MTO or MTS
Items that are MTO. No inventory cost. Only setup time. Orders of a same item within a bucket still shares the setup. Ship to customer within T with probability PO Items that are MTS. Follows an (r, q) policy. Cycle stock and safety stock. Service level (type I) of PS Making an item MTO reduces the inventory for that item, but
Leads to more setups, thus higher capacity utilization and larger lead times Leads to more variability in lead times Thus larger safety and cycle stocks for MTS items, poorer service for MTO items
Rajagopalan - continued
Insights
MTO systems may be less costly but not always feasible Medium demand items are attracted to MTS Higher holding costs -> MTO Higher setup costs -> MTS Larger processing times with high demands -> MTO
Stochastic ordering
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 20 40 60 80
m=30 s=5 m=20 s=5