SMOKING KILLS

Underlying structure of Analysis

Universal Demand
Price Barrier
Non-price Barrier
Potential Market
Demand at zero price = Universal demand () Non
price barrier
Current users = Universal Demand (-) Never
Users
(-) Non users

Pack of Cigarette
Cigarette will cost you from Rs. 42 to Rs. 200.
Quality Of Cigarette
- Type Of Tobacco
- Size of Cigarette
- Type of Filter
- Brand Name

Number

States

Number

States

Jammu & Kashmir

19

West Bengal

Himachal Pradesh

20

Jharkhand

Punjab

21

Orissa

Chandigarh

22

Chhattisgarh

Uttaranchal

23

Madhya Pradesh

Haryana

24

Gujarat

Delhi

25

Daman & Diu

Rajasthan

26

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Uttar Pradesh

27

Maharashtra

10

Bihar

28

Andhra Pardesh

11

Sikkim

29

Karnataka

12

Arunachal Pradesh

30

Goa

13

Nagaland

31

Lakshadweep

14

Manipur

32

Kerala

15

Mizoram

33

Tamil Nadu

16

Tripura

34

Pondicherry

17

Meghalaya

35

Andaman & Nicober

18

Assam

Analysis on INDIA
SOUTH
TOTAL
State

Andaman &
Nicobar Islands

Persons

3,56,152

RURAL
Males

1,92,972

Females

1,63,180

Persons

2,39,954

URBAN
Males

1,28,961

Females

1,10,993

Persons

Males

Females

1,16,198

64,011

52,187

Karnataka

5,28,50,562

2,68,98,918 2,59,51,644 3,48,89,033 1,76,48,958 1,72,40,075 1,79,61,529

92,49,960

87,11,569

Kerala

3,18,41,374

1,54,68,614 1,63,72,760 2,35,74,449 1,14,51,282 1,21,23,167

82,66,925

40,17,332

42,49,593

6,48,619

3,23,258

3,25,361

Puducherry

9,74,345

4,86,961

4,87,384

3,25,726

1,63,703

1,62,023

Tamil Nadu

6,24,05,679

3,14,00,909 3,10,04,770 3,49,21,681 1,75,31,494 1,73,90,187 2,74,83,998 1,38,69,415 1,36,14,583

Andhra Pradesh

7,62,10,007

3,85,27,413 3,76,82,594 5,54,01,067 2,79,37,204 2,74,63,863 2,08,08,940 1,05,90,209 1,02,18,731

EAST
TOTAL

RURAL

URBAN

Manipur

22,93,896

11,61,952

11,31,944

15,90,820

8,08,953

7,81,867

5,75,968

2,86,681

2,89,287

Meghalaya

23,18,822

11,76,087

11,42,735

18,64,711

9,46,999

9,17,712

4,54,111

2,29,088

2,25,023

8,88,573

4,59,109

4,29,464

4,47,567

2,32,726

2,14,841

4,41,006

2,26,383

2,14,623

19,90,036

10,47,141

9,42,895

16,47,249

8,59,716

7,87,533

3,42,787

1,87,425

1,55,362

60,650

31,131

29,519

33,683

17,191

16,492

26,967

13,940

13,027

Mizoram
Nagaland
Lakshadweep
Jharkhand

2,69,45,829 1,38,85,037

1,30,60,792 2,09,52,088

1,06,79,596 1,02,72,492

59,93,741

32,05,441

27,88,300

Orissa

3,68,04,660 1,86,60,570

1,81,44,090 3,12,87,422

1,57,48,970 1,55,38,452

55,17,238

29,11,600

26,05,638

Sikkim

5,40,851

2,88,484

2,52,367

4,80,981

2,55,774

2,25,207

59,870

32,710

27,160

Uttarakhand

84,89,349

43,25,924

41,63,425

63,10,275

31,44,590

31,65,685

21,79,074

11,81,334

9,97,740

Tripura

31,99,203

16,42,225

15,56,978

26,53,453

13,63,638

12,89,815

5,45,750

2,78,587

2,67,163

2,96,16,009 2,81,32,937

2,24,27,251

1,18,49,976

1,05,77,275

West Bengal

8,01,76,197 4,14,65,985

3,87,10,212 5,77,48,946

west
TOTAL

RURAL

URBAN

Madhya
Pradesh

6,03,48,023

3,14,43,652 2,89,04,371 4,43,80,878 2,30,31,093

2,13,49,785 1,59,67,145

Maharastra

9,68,78,627

5,04,00,596 4,64,78,031 5,57,77,647 2,84,58,677

2,73,18,970 4,11,00,980 2,19,41,919 1,91,59,061

Gujarat

5,06,71,017

2,63,85,577 2,42,85,440 3,17,40,767 1,63,17,771

1,54,22,996 1,89,30,250 1,00,67,806

Chhattisgarh

2,08,33,803

1,04,74,218 1,03,59,585 1,66,48,056

84,12,559

75,54,586

88,62,444

83,07,443

83,40,613

41,85,747

21,66,775

20,18,972

Dadra & Nagar

Haveli

2,20,490

1,21,666

98,824

1,70,027

91,832

78,195

50,463

29,834

20,629

Daman & Diu

1,58,204

92,512

65,692

1,00,856

63,606

37,250

57,348

28,906

28,442

13,47,668

6,87,248

6,60,420

6,77,091

3,40,545

3,36,546

6,70,577

3,46,703

3,23,874

2,08,66,173 1,32,14,375

69,93,371

62,21,004

Goa

Rajasthan

5,65,07,188

2,94,20,011 2,70,87,177 4,32,92,813 2,24,26,640

North
TOTAL

Arunachal
Pradesh

RURAL

10,97,968

5,79,941

5,18,027

8,70,087

Assam

2,66,55,528

1,37,77,037

1,28,78,491

Bihar

8,29,98,509

4,32,43,795

4,15,407

2,27,881

1,25,261

1,02,62

2,32,16,288

1,19,39,945 1,12,76,343

34,39,240

18,37,092

16,02,14

3,97,54,714

7,43,16,709

3,85,94,996 3,57,21,713

86,81,800

46,48,799

40,33,00

9,00,635

5,06,938

3,93,697

92,120

56,816

35,304

8,08,515

4,50,122

3,58,39

2,11,44,564

1,13,63,953

97,80,611

1,50,29,260

80,52,988

69,76,272

61,15,304

33,10,965

28,04,33

Himachal
Pradesh

60,77,900

30,87,940

29,89,960

54,82,319

27,56,073

27,26,246

5,95,581

3,31,867

2,63,71

Jammu &
Kashmir

1,01,43,700

53,60,926

47,82,774

76,27,062

39,77,652

36,49,410

25,16,638

13,83,274

11,33,36

NCT of Delhi

1,38,50,507

76,07,234

62,43,273

9,44,727

5,22,087

4,22,640

1,29,05,780

70,85,147

58,20,63

Punjab

2,43,58,999

1,29,85,045

1,13,73,954

1,60,96,488

85,16,596

75,79,892

82,62,511

44,68,449

37,94,06

16,61,97,921

8,75,65,369

7,86,32,552 13,16,58,339

3,45,39,582 1,84,07,899

1,61,31,68

Chandigarh
Haryana

Uttar Pradesh

4,54,680

URBAN

6,91,57,470 6,25,00,869

S No.

Country

Total

Persons

Males

Females

India

Total

1,02,86,10,328 53,21,56,772 49,64,53,556

India

Rural

74,24,90,639 38,16,02,674 36,08,87,965

India

Urban

28,61,19,689 15,05,54,098 13,55,65,591

Persons
Males
Females

West Bengal

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Tripura

Tamil Nadu

Sikkim

Rajasthan

Punjab

Puducherry

Orissa

NCT of Delhi

Nagaland

Mizoram

Meghalaya

Manipur

Maharastra

Madhya Pradesh

Lakshadweep

Kerala

Karnataka

Jharkhand

Jammu & Kashmir

Himachal Pradesh

Haryana

Gujarat

Goa

Daman & Diu

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Chhattisgarh

Chandigarh

Bihar

Assam

Arunachal Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

140,010,000

Total Population State wise

120,010,000

100,010,000

80,010,000

60,010,000

40,010,000

20,010,000

10,000

140,000,000

Urban Population
120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000

60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

Total

Males

Females

Persons
Males
Females

West Bengal

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Tripura

Tamil Nadu

Sikkim

Rajasthan

Punjab

Puducherry

Orissa

NCT of Delhi

Nagaland

Mizoram

Meghalaya

Manipur

Maharastra

Madhya Pradesh

Lakshadweep

Kerala

Karnataka

Jharkhand

Jammu & Kashmir

Himachal Pradesh

Haryana

Gujarat

Goa

Daman & Diu

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

80,000,000

Chhattisgarh

Chandigarh

Bihar

Assam

Arunachal Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

90,000,000

Rural Population

70,000,000

60,000,000

50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

AGE GROUP

POPULATION

0-9

23,87,63,954

10-14

12,48,46,858

15-19

10,02,15,890

20-24

8,97,64,132

25-29

8,34,22,393

30-34

7,42,74,044

35-39

7,05,74,085

40-44

5,57,38,297

45-49

4,74,08,976

50-54

3,65,87,559

55-59

2,76,53,347

60-64

2,75,16,779

65-69

1,98,06,955

70-74

1,47,08,644

75-79

65,51,225

80+

80,38,718

TOTAL

1,02,58,71,856

AGE WISE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

300,000,000

250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

0-9
35-39

10-14
40-44

15-19
45-49

20-24
50-54

25-29
55-59

30-34
60-64

Universal Demand for

Cigarette
Calculation of Universal Demand
If every eligible person would consume our product
or service
Growth for our product in future would
correspond to growth in these eligible persons

Universal Demand Estimation

Total Population in India = 102 Cr
Total Population within age group ( 0- 14 years) = 36Cr
Thus Universal Demand is =

66 Cr ----(1)

Universal Demand
1,200,000,000

1,000,000,000

800,000,000

600,000,000
Series1

400,000,000

200,000,000

0
Series1

Total Population

Children Age Group

UNIVERSAL DEMAND / NON price Barrier

1,028,737,436

363,610,812

665,126,624

Population from Age

group (60 to 8 0 )
years
7.66 Cr

Men & Women

(Non Smokers)
50.56 Cr

Total non price

barrier population
58.22 Cr ----(2)

Total Demand for

Cigarettes
1-2

Thus Universal Demand =

66.5 Cr ----(1)

Total non price barrier

population

58.22 Cr ----(2)

Current Cigarette
Consumption
8.28 Cr

(3)

Addicted
Original Potential Market : 8.28 Cr
No of people for BIDI Consumption : 30.2 Cr
No of people for PAN Consumption: 1.60 Cr
Other(Zarda/Kimani/Surti) : 4.50 Cr

Current Cigarette
Consumption
8.28 Cr

No of people for
PAAN
Consumption
1.60 Cr

No of people for
BIDI Consumption
30.22 Cr

Other
(Zarda/Kimani/Surti)
4.05 Cr

44.60 Cr

Total Potential smokers

which company can target
on

Nicotine can be consumed in many ways

Cigarette

BIDI

pan

Zarda/Kimani/surti( gm)

3%

3%
10%

66%

18%

Ganza (Rs)

Elasticity in Cigarette
In Cigarette people who smoke particular type of Cigarette dont
change because of Taste & Strength of Cigarette.
Demand of Cigarette is PERFECTLY INELASTIC DEMAND.
Govt. increases taxes every year, which causes price of Cigarette to
increases every year. But Still demands goes on increasing.

D1
Ed = 0

Market Share (%)

80%

81%

60%
40%
20%

Market Share (%)

8%

0%

7%
4%

ITC LTD.
Godfrey Phillips
India Ltd.

Market Share (%)

VST Indstries Ltd.
GTC Industries Ltd.

Company

Market Share (%)

ITC LTD.

81%

Godfrey Phillips India Ltd.

8%

VST Indstries Ltd.

7%

Now thats How we Market

We are connected with adult smokers by following ways:
At retail, where we present our brands to legal-aged
cigarette smokers at the point of purchase

Push Strategy for trial

One-to-one Communications

Consumer Websites
Consumer Marketing Activities

Indirect branding exercise like Wills for Cricket World

Chandigarh

Chhattisgarh

Dadra & Nagar

Punjab

Lakshadweep

Pondicherry

Uttaranchal

Daman & Diu

Rajasthan

Gujarat

Bihar

Jharkhand

Haryana

Orissa

Arunachal

Sikkim

Delhi

Karnataka

Madhya Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Tripura

Maharashtra

Uttar Pradesh

Manipur

Assam

Kerala

Nagaland

Tamil Nadu

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Andhra Pradesh

West Bengal

True Chain Smokers are from WEST BENGAL

No. of Cigarettes(In thousands)

7050000

6050000

5050000

4050000

3050000

2050000

1050000

50000

ITC. Ltd

Insignia
India Kings
Gold flake
Silk Cut
Navy Cut
Capston
Scissors
Berkeley
Bristol
Flake

GODFREY
PHILLIPS

FS1
Four Square
Marlboro
Red & White
North Pole
Cavanders
Tipper

The Demand will be same for products

such as