AP STATISTICS 5.

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Obj: To understand the pitfalls in sampling design

Observational Study VS Experiment

In an observational study we observe individuals and measure variables of interest, but do not attempt to influence the responses. Collecting data already in existence In an experiment, we deliberately impose some treatment on individuals in order to observe their responses.

A population is an entire group of individuals about whom we want information. A sample is a part of the population that we examine in order to gather information.
We use a sample to draw conclusions about the population Samples study a part of a population. A census attempts to contact every individual in the entire population

Elvis
What type of sampling was conducted? Voluntary Response What is wrong with this type of sampling? A Voluntary Response consists of people who choose themselves by responding to a general appeal. VR samples are biased b/c people with strong opinions, usually negative ones, are most likely to respond.

Convenience Sampling
Choosing individuals who are easiest to reach Would you stand on Main Street in Ridgefield to gather information about the USA? What is wrong with that? Voluntary response and convenience sampling both lead to

BIAS
A sampling method is biased if it systematically favors certain outcomes. Is the Alf Landon survey biased, why? Both Voluntary response and convenience sampling have a human element which could lead to bias. How do you avoid bias?

Simple Random Sample SRS

A simple random sample of size n consists of n individuals from the population chosen in such a way that every set of n individuals has an equal chance to be the sample actually selected. Systematic random sampling is a random sampling technique that incorporates chance, but is not an SRS.

Using a Table of Random Digits

A table of random digits is a long string of digits 0-9 with the following properties Each entry in the table is equally likely to be any of the 10 digits 0-9. The entries are independent of each other. Look at the table of random integers in the back of the book.

Using a table of Random Integers

1. Label assign a numerical value to every individual in the population 2. Table Use a table of random digits to choose your sample 3. Stopping Rule Indicate when you should stop sampling 4. Identify Sample Use the labels to identify subjects selected to be in the sample

Other Sampling Methods

Probability Sample A sample chosen by chance gives each member of the population a known chance to be selected (not necessarily equal chance!) The NBA Draft

Other sampling methods cont

Stratified Sample Divide the population into groups of individuals called Strata that are similar in some way that is important to the response. Choose an SRS from each stratum and combine to form the full sample Freshman, sophomores, juniors, seniors. Men, women

Other sampling methods cont

Cluster Sample Divide the population into groups or clusters. Some of these clusters are randomly selected. All individuals in the chosen cluster are in the sample. An organization has 1000 chapters nationally. Of them, 15 are randomly chosen, and each member of each chosen chapter is in the sample.

Other sampling methods cont

Multi Stage Sampling Design Select a random sample from a high level of an organization. From that group, randomly select a group. From that 2nd group, randomly select a group at the next level and continue the process. State, County, Town, Block, Household

Cautions About Sample Surveys

Undercoverage When some of the population is unknown and does not have an equal chance of being selected. Non-response When a person chosen for a sample decides not to participate. US Census notoriously bad when it comes to undercoverage and non-response. Why?

Cautions About Sample Surveys

Response Bias
Faulty memory Embarrassing question Race/gender of surveyor Attitude of surveyor

Wording of Question Is the question leading or confusing?

Conclusion
Never trust the results of a sample survey until you have read the exact questions posed and know how it was administered! Where we are headed We are looking to make statements about the population. It is very likely that 2 different samples will get 2 different results. For now, know this, larger samples will give more accurate results than small samples.