The Cuban Revolution: challenges & changes

Cuba and its neighbours

Cuba: an inspiring revolution

Authentic, deepgoing socialist revolution. Has resisted US empire. Continually inspiring: internationalist and democratic. Has shown that Stalinist degeneration is not inevitable.

Time magazine, January 26, 1959.

Revolution faces biggest challenge

Severe economic problems. Far-reaching reforms projected. Bureaucracy, corruption, black market. Leadership transition.

May Day, Havana, 2010.

US blockade

An economic, commercial and financial siege that has lasted half a century Cuban foreign minister Rodriguez Parrilla.

Collapse of USSR
1991 collapse of Soviet Union. Cuba lost bulk of trade and aid. Faced starvation and collapse: Special period. Living standards still not recovered.

Fidel in USSR with Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev, June 1963.

Natural disasters
2008: Cuba hit by hammer blows of climate change. Hurricanes Ike, Gustav and many more. Few lives lost but enormous economic cost. Severe ongoing drought .

Surveying wreckage after Hurricane Gustav.

Nickel price collapses

Cuba has one third of worlds proven nickel reserves. Cubas biggest export earner. Crash of world nickel price.

World nickel price: from $52,000 per tonne in 2007 to $9000 in 2008; now back to around $20,000.

Development of tourism
Tourism has developed massively in last two decades. 2001: 1.7m visitors. 2009: 2.4m visitors. Big earner but also big social costs.

Havana: Cuba is a prime tourist destination.

Venezuela
Rise of Venezuelan revolution crucial. Main trade partner. Cheap oil in return for medical and other aid. Fibre optic cable: will enable Cuba to break US internet throttle.

Cuba-China relations growing

After Venezuela, China is main trade partner. Vital relationship: nickel, transport, consumer goods. Assistance with hunt for offshore oil.

Italian-owned, Chinese-built oil rig will do offshore test drilling.

Economic situation
GDP growth rate has fallen sharply. Key export earners hit, imports costly. Medical services to Venezuela vital. Drive for food selfsufficiency (70% imported).

GDP growth has fallen steadily from 12.3% peak in 2006 to 1.9% in 2009.

Two-tier currency
Ordinary peso and convertible peso (CUC). Dollars (tourists and remittances) must be exchanged for CUCs. Fees and taxes of 20% levied. Dollar shops with much higher prices. Most Cuban workers are paid in pesos.

Dollar shop in Holguin.

Daily struggle to get by

Wages and pensions are inadequate. The libreta ration system is inadequate. People are driven to extra jobs, the black economy, pilfering and corruption. Social inequality is growing as some are better placed.

Cubans queuing for rice.

Black economy
Numerous activities, from the fairly harmless to the seriously criminal: Selling homemade goods unofficially. Selling goods stolen from work. Using work facilities for private gain (eg, using car as taxi for tourists). Bribery and corruption (eg, sale of lucrative tourist sector jobs).

Black economy: a vendor sells home-made sweets along Havana street.

Raul Castro at UJC congress

to continue spending beyond our income is tantamount to eating up our future and jeopardizing the very survival of the revolution.
Raul at UJC congress, April 4, 2010.

Reform plan: main points

State payrolls to be slashed: 1 million workers to be laid off over 5 years (half by next March). Smaller state enterprises to be converted to cooperatives. 178 occupations now open to private enterprise; in 83 of these, the owners will be able to hire non-relatives. Agriculture: Land to those who want it; controls loosened and supplies more readily available. Tax system will be revamped.

Young Cubans help on farm.

Reforms: aims and risks

To trim state payroll and increase productivity of state sector. To increase economic efficiency by stimulating peoples self-interest. To draw people out of black economy into open legal sector, regulate and tax. To increase food production and reduce huge import bill. To make daily life less stressful by making things easier: having services that work, food available. Need to significantly raise wages and pensions. Risks: market will create inequality and a stronger petty-bourgeois layer. Need to keep strong boundaries.

Shakeup: top leaders dismissed

In March 2009, Carlos Lage Davila and Felipe Perez Roque and a number of other central leaders were dismissed from their party and state posts for serious errors.

Head of civil aviation sacked

In April this year General Rogelio Acevedo was sacked. Officials in civil aviation did secret deals and pocketed the proceeds. Many people under investigation.

Former Sierra Maestra fighter and Angola veteran Rogelio Acevedo disgraced.

Inspection department set up

A Comptroller General's Office was created in August 2009 to monitor the state apparatus and crack down on corruption. One of its tasks is to follow up on reports by the public. The comptroller urged workers to press for their right to discuss the use of public resources.

CP expels revolutionary
Earlier this year Esteban Morales was expelled from CP after he warned of danger of corruption and said that some Cuban bureaucrats were getting ready for return of capitalism.

Academic Esteban Morales, expert on US-Cuba relations, 50-year revolutionary.

Dissidents a US creation
In March 2003, 75 Cubans were jailed as paid US agents. Hailed by Western media as prisoners of conscience. Most since released.

Ladies in White, relatives and supporters of jailed Cuban dissidents, demonstrate in Havana, March 2010.

Criminal hailed as dissident

Zapata Tamayo died in prison in February after 83-day hunger strike. Doctors fought to save his life. Western media hailed as political prisoner. In jail for real crimes.

CP congress put off

Last party congress held in 1997. Sixth congress set for late 2009, then postponed. No new date has been set. This congress will be last one led by historic leadership of revolution.

Transition of leadership
Revolutionary generation is slowly passing from the scene. Process of generational change critical. Central leadership team absolutely key.

May Day, Havana, 2007.

Imperialists howling
International capitalism will never be reconciled to Cuban Revolution. Bush set up a transition office to plan for re-establishing capitalism in Cuba. Imperialists think forced turn to market will weaken the revolution and provide opening. Always howling about human rights never mind the absolutely mind-blowing hypocrisy involved.

Bush set up transition office for Cuba.

Revolution still fighting

Tremendous example, great social gains. Imperialists think they smell blood. The struggle will decide, within Cuba and abroad. Solidarity vital.

Women inducted into armed forces, June 2008.