Delays at Logan Airport

Group B3 Abhishek Pathak (2012065) Ankit Jha(2012070) Kunal Parmar (2012085) Saket Singh (2012103) Shubham Agnihotri (2012108) Sunny Kohli (2012117)

Introduction
Located in the East Boston neighbourhood of Boston,

Massachusetts, US Ranked as fifth most significantly delayed airport in 2001 Average of 47.5 delays per 1,000 flights Usage in 2001 479,000 annual operations Demand projected in 2015 510,000 to 656,000 annual operations

Causes of delay
Delay due to weather condition 70-75% delay nationwide
Normal condition Adverse weather

Delays
Operation per hr 118-126

70-75% + 5 12%
78-88

Strong northeast winds Only two or one runway can be used Capacity dropped to 40-60 operations per hour Use of less than 3 runway due to adverse condition

 Mix of Airplanes 40% of runway used by small, non-jet airplane, carrying between 9 -34 passengers 16 19 % runways used by regional jets carrying 35-70 passengers Over scheduling when they schedule more flights than the airport can possibly handle Increase in number annual passengers to 37.5 million projected in 2015 Location 90% of flights starts and ends there Arrival in uniform manner Very little slack in system to recover from delays

Peak period pricing

Per Plane delay time, operational and passenger delay cost

Normal good weather capacity Number of server 2 Passenger load factor 70% Arrival rate 50 planes/hr

Cost (Avg per plane per hr)

19 seat turbo
150 seat Regional jets Passengers time

348
1,585 640 25.7

Arrival rate(planes per hour) Service rate 50 55 59 30 30 30

Average delay 6.55 12.52 60.50

Total cost
Cost (average per plane per hr) 19 seat turbo 150 seat Regional jets For arrival rate - 50 For arrival rate - 55 For arrival rate - 59

348
1,585

75.25
467.29

143.96
893.95

695.60
4,319.48

640

167.95

321.29

1,552.43

Delay costs according to FAA

There are only delay costs associated with an arrival rate of 59, delay time: 60.5-15= 45.5
Service Rate 30 30 30

Arrival Rate (planes per hour) 50 55 59

Avg Delay (minutes) 6.55

12.52 60.50

FAA rule of 15 min delay 0

0 45.50

Delay costs according to FAA

New Delay Cost Cost (avg per plane per hr) 19 seater turbo plane 150 seat plane regional jets 348 1,585 640 For Arrival Rate For Arrival Rate For Arrival Rate = 50 = 55 = 59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 523.15 3,248.61 1,167.56

The average delay time seems to be reasonable as the difference between average delay time for arrival rate of 55 and arrival rate of 59 is very high

Delay costs according to FAA

Peak period pricing seems to be a good option as decrease

in arrival rate reduces the delay cost by greater rate.

Impact of peak period landing fee

Aircraft Class Estimated Seating Capacity Revenue Per Passanger 19 19 19 50 50 50 150 150 150 230 230 230 154 154 154 402 402 402 Landing Fee Total Revenue Landing Fee/Total Revenue per flight 3.27% 4.90% 6.54% 1.86% 2.78% 3.71% 0.24% 0.36% 0.47%

Turboprop Turboprop Turboprop Regional Jet Regional Jet Regional Jet Conventional Jet Conventional Jet Conventional Jet

100 150 200 100 150 200 100 150 200

3,059 3,059 3,059 5,390 5,390 5,390 42,210 42,210 42,210

Impact of peak Period pricing on magnitude for airplane mix

Peak Period Demand
Landing Fees

60
100 Turbopro Regional Jet Conventional Total p Jet 40% 18% 42% 24 19 230 11 50 154 58212 1080 1.855% 25 150 402 1063692 2520 0.237% 1195320 6000 0.502%

Airplane Mix
Airplane

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue

73416 2400 3.269%

Peak Period Demand Landing Fees Airplane Mix Airplane

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue

60 150 Turboprop 40% 24 19 230 73416 3600 4.904%

Regional Jet 18% 11 50 154 58212 1620 2.783%

Conventional Jet 42% 25 150 402 1063692 3780 0.355%

Total

1195320 9000 0.753%

Peak Period Demand Landing Fees

Airplane Mix Airplane

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue

60 200 Turboprop 40% 24 19 230 73416 4800 6.538%

Regional Jet 18% 11 50 154 58212 2160 3.711%

Conventional Jet 42% 25 150 402 1063692 5040 0.474%

Total

1195320 12000 1.004%

For 20-30-50 Ratio

Peak Period Demand Landing Fees Turboprop

60
100 Regional Jet Conventional Jet Total 30 150 402 1266300 3000 1400028 6000

Airplane Mix
Airplane

20%
12 19 230

30%
18 50 154 97020 1800

50%

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue

36708 1200

3.269%

1.855%

0.237%

0.429%

Peak Period Demand Landing Fees

60 150 Turboprop 20% 12 19 230 36708 1800 Regional Jet 30% 18 50 154 97020 2700 Conventional Jet 50% 30 150 402 1266300 4500 Total

Airplane Mix Airplane

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue Peak Period Demand Landing Fees

1400028 9000

4.904%

2.783%

0.355%

0.643%

60 200 Turboprop 20% 12 19 230 36708 2400 Regional Jet 30% 18 50 154 97020 3600 Conventional Jet 50% 30 150 402 1266300 6000 Total

Airplane Mix Airplane

Total Revenue Total landing Fees Landing Fees/Total Revenue

1400028 12000

6.538%

3.711%

0.474%

0.857%

 It would have significant effect (for airplane mix of 40-18-

42) during peak period as landing fee would have higher cost effect for turboprop as the proportion of landing fee with total revenue is higher. Hence, there would be a decrease in the arrival rate of turboprops during the peak period. The similar impact would be less for the airplane mix of 20-30-50.

Extent to which savings in delay cost that result from demand mgmt. Offset period fees
Total Cost For Arrival Rate Saving (arrival rate from = 50 55 to 50) 19 seater turbo plane 75.3 68.7

Landing Fee 100.0

Net Saving 93.5

150 seat plane

regional jets

467.3
167.9

426.7
153.3

100.0
100.0

59.4
85.4

For Arrival Rate Saving (arrival rate from = 55 59 to 55)

19 seater turbo plane

150 seat plane regional jets

144.0
893.9 321.3 For Arrival Rate = 59

551.6
3425.5 1231.1

150.0
150.0 150.0

557.7
2681.6 1059.9

19 seater turbo plane 150 seat plane regional jets

695.6 4319.5 1552.4

200.0 200.0 200.0

-695.6 -4319.5 -1552.4

Arrival rate exceeds service rate during one period

If the arrival rate is more than service rate then there would be huge waiting line of planes. Airplanes would have to be diverted to other airports or have to wait in air. This would also result in cancellation of flights. In any case, Cost involved would be tremendous.

Estimated Delay Times and Costs

19 seater turbo plane 150 seat plane regional jets Passenger's time

Cost (avg per plane per hr) 348 1,585 640 25.7

Arrival Rate (planes per hour) 55

Service Rate 60

Avg Delay (minutes) 6.58

Cost (avg per plane per hr) 19 seater turbo plane 150 seat plane 348 1,585

Total Cost 75.65 469.76

regional jets

640

168.83

If Logan drops to two total runways in operation, with a capacity of 22.5 arrivals per hour each, or to one runway with an average of capacity of 30 arrivals per hour then the delay costs and delay times will be astronomical and they will have to divert planes to other airports.

Thank you