Reservoir operation under variable climate : case of Rozava Dam, Zimbabwe

Objective
1. To investigate if there is evidence of climate change occurrence at local scale with respect to rainfall and temperature 2. Apply modeling techniques to investigate the performance of Rozva Dam 3. Predict the impact of reduce inflow on reservoir operation, based on climate change study

Flow chart
Hydro-climatic data Trend analysis Estimation demand Modeling Model validation

Check scenario 1
Check scenario 2 Check scenario 3 conclusions

Hydrology
Medium size dam Water supply and irrigation purpose Rainfall 700 mm/yr (November to April ) Evaporation 2000 mm/yr Irrigation efficiency 60% Environment flow - 5% of available water

Characteristics of Rozva dam

Analysis of hydro-climatic Data

Climatic data (Rainfall, Temperature) Meteorological Department and Zimbabwe Climate Change Office Trend analysis 6 D R 1
n i 1 2 i sp

n(n 2 1)

Rsp = Spearmans rank correlation coefficient D = difference between the rankings

Estimation of agriculture demand

FAO CROPWAT 8.0 software used
IWR gross ETc Pe

IWRgross= gross irrigation water requirement Etc= crop evapotranspiration Pe = effective precipitation n = irrigation efficiency

Rozva river system

Modeling techniques
WAFLEX model are use
Easily modified to suit local condition Based on continuity equation Applying model to simulate the reservoir response to simulate the reservoir response to different water demand scenarios on monthly time step

Scenarios
Current system operation 50% reduction in runoff and accommodating projected increased demands Improve irrigation efficiency with climate change impacted inflows

Results and analysis

Rainfall

Trend at 5% insignificant level Rsp = -0.82

Temperature

Irrigation water requirements

Model validation

Scenario 1
Current Water Demand and Inflow
100% satisfaction level for current demand

Scenario 2(a)
Climate Change effects leading to 50% inflow reduction and current Demands

Scenario 2(b)
Climate Change effects leading to 50% inflow reduction and Projected increased Demands

In 2030, maximum shortage of 19% for downstream user

Scenario 3
Change in irrigation technology

Conclusions
No significant change in climate but variability Currently have much water for satisfied all demand When 75% inflow reduces and projected increased demand at that time 19% shortage for downstream users Reduces downstream shortage by using more efficient irrigation technology