BASIC PROBABILITY

Meeting 4-5
Course : I0262 Statistics Probability
Year : 2011


Topic : Basic Probability
Basic Probability Concept
Conditional probability
Bayestheorem
Application in PH Stat Excel
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Learning Outcome
Calculate probability, expectation, and variance
Interpret the result of identify and the calculation
Bina Nusantara University 3
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Sample Space: the collection of all possible events
Symbol : S

Example :
- Throwing a dice

- Error in using computer
{ } 6 , 5 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 1 = S
{ } .... , 3 , 2 , 1 , 0 error error error error S =
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Event
- Each possible type of occurrence or outcome
- Subset of sample space
- Ex. Denoted A

Example :
A : even number in throwing a dice
A = {2,4,6}
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Combination of event :
Union
Complement
Intersection
Mutually Disjoint Events
Partition of a sample space
Implies
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Union
Union is a combination of two or more events
Union of two events A and B denote by , which containing
all the elements that belong to A or B or both
Example :
A = {1,2,3}
B = {10,11}

B A
} 11 , 10 , 3 , 2 , 1 { = B A
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Complement
The complements of event A includes all events that are note
part of A
Denote by A
Example :
A = even number in throwing a dice = {1,2,3}
A = {4,5,6}


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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Intersection
The intersection of events A and B denote by which
containing all elements in A and B
Example :
A = {1,2,3}
B = {10,11}
C = {3,4,5}

B A
} {C = B A
} 3 { = C A
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Mutually disjoint (exclusive) event
The two events A and B are mutually disjoint if

Implies
The event A is implies B if all elements in A are elements in B
Denote by



} {C = B A
B Ac
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Diagram Venn
A B
B A
A B
B A
A
A
B A
B Ac
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Many operations of

(symmetry)

(distribution law)



(De Morgans law)


c , ,
A B B A =
A B B A =
) ( ) ( ) ( C A B A C B A =
' ' )' ( B A B A =
' ' )' ( B A B A =
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Probability
The chance that an uncertain event will occur (always
between 0 and 1)
The probability of event A is


n(A) = number of sample in event A
n(S) = number of all possible in sample space

) (
) (
) (
S n
A n
A P =
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Example
S = throwing a dice = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
A = even number in throwing a dice = {1,2,3}
The probability of event A is



6
3
) ( = A P
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Example


Planned to
purchase
Actually purchased Total
Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
25 . 0 = =
1000
250
purchase) to P(Planned
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Additive Rules :
Probability of union event A and B :



If A and B are Mutually exclusive :



) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( B A P B P A P B A P + =
) ( ) ( ) ( B P A P B A P + =
A B
B A
A
B
B A
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Additive Rules :
Probability of union event A1, A2, and A3 :



) ( ) ( ) (
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
3 2 1 3 2 3 1
2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1
A A A P A A P A A P
A A P A P A P A P A A A P
+
+ + =
A1 A2 A3
3 2 1
A A A
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Additive Rules :
Marginal Probability


where B1, B2, , Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exclusive events



) ( ... ( ) ( ) (
2 1 k
B A P B A P B A P A P + + + =
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Additive Rules :
Probability of complement event A = A



A
A
) ( 1 ) ' ( A P A P =
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Example






A = planned to purchase
B = actually purchased


Planned to
purchase
Actually
purchased
Total
Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
35 . 0 = + =
1000
200
1000
300
1000
250
B) or P(A
75 . 0 1 = =
1000
250
) ' P(A
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Counting Sample Points
1. Multiplication Rule:
If an operation can be performed in n
1
ways, and if for each of
these ways a second operation can be performed in n
2
ways,
then the two operations can be performed together in n
1
n
2

ways.
How many sample points are there in the sample space when
a pair of dice is thrown once?


n
1
n
2
= (6) (6) = 36 possible ways
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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Counting Sample Points
2. Permutation :
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of
objects.
The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a
time is


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4.1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Counting Sample Points
3 . Combination :
A combination of k objects is taking k objects from n objects
(n> = k) without decision and without regard to order. Or the
possibility of making a lot of ways k objects are:

)! ( !
!
,
k n k
n
C C
n
k k n

= =
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of one event, given
that another event has occurred:





Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B
P(A) = marginal probability of A
P(B) = marginal probability of B





) (
) (
) | (
B P
B A P
B A P

=
) (
) (
) | (
A P
A B P
A B P

=
The conditional probability of A
given that B has occurred
The conditional probability of B
given that A has occurred
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Joint Probability and Marginal Probability





P(A
1
and B
2
) P(A
1
)
Total
Event
P(A
2
and B
1
)
P(A
1
and B
1
)
Event
Total 1
Joint Probabilities
Marginal (Simple) Probabilities
A
1
A
2
B
1
B
2
P(B
1
) P(B
2
)
P(A
2
and B
2
) P(A
2
)
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example






A = planned to purchase
B = actually purchased


Planned to
purchase
Actually
purchased
Total
Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
8 . 0
1000 / 250
1000 / 200
) | (
1000 / 700 ) ' (
1000 / 300 ) (
1000 / 750 ) ' (
1000 / 250 ) (
= =
=
=
=
=
A B P
B P
B P
A P
A P
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example : Computing Conditional Probability by
decision tree
Entire set of
households
Planned to purchase
P(A) = 250/1000
Actually Purchased

Did not Plan to
purchase
P(A) = 750/1000
250 / 200 ) | ( = A B P
Did not Actually Purchased

250 / 50 ) | ' ( = A B P
Actually Purchased

750 / 100 ) ' | ( = A B P
Did not Actually Purchased

750 / 650 ) ' | ' ( = A B P
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Two events are independent if and only if:




Events A and B are independent when the probability of one
event is not affected by the other event

) ( ) | ( A P B A P =
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Multiplication Rules

Multiplication rule for two events A and B:


If A and B are independent, then

and the multiplication rule simplifies to:

P(B) B) | P(A B) P(A =
P(B) P(A) B) P(A =
P(A) B) | P(A =
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4.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Marginal Probability Using Multiplication Rules
Marginal probability for event A:




Where B
1
, B
2
, , B
k
are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events

) ( ) | ( ) (
1
i i
k
i
B P B A P A P

=
=
+ + + = ) P(B ) B | P(A ) P(B ) B | P(A ) P(B ) B | P(A P(A)
k k 2 2 1 1

B1 B2 .. Bk
A
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4.3 BAYESTHEOREM
If the events B1, B2, , Bi, , Bk constitute a partition of the
sample space S such that P(Bi ) 0 for i=1,2,..,k, then for any
event A in S such that P(A) 0,

=
=
k
i
i i
i i
i
B P B A P
B P B A P
A B P
1
) ( ) | (
) ( ) | (
) | (
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4.3 BAYESTHEOREM
Example Marginal Probability Using Multiplication Rules and
Bayes Theorem






A = planned to purchase
B = actually purchased


Planned to
purchase
Actually
purchased
Total
Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
Compute :
(a)Probability of actually
Purchased
(b)Probability planned to
purchase if known actually
purchased before

Entire set of
households
Planned to purchase
P(A) = 250/1000
Actually Purchased

Did not Plan to
purchase
P(A) = 750/1000
250 / 200 ) | ( = A B P
Did not Actually Purchased

250 / 50 ) | ' ( = A B P
Actually Purchased

750 / 100 ) ' | ( = A B P
Did not Actually Purchased

750 / 650 ) ' | ' ( = A B P
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4.3 BAYESTHEOREM
Example : Computing by decision tree
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4.3 BAYESTHEOREM
Example : Computing by decision tree (Continued)
3 / 1
3 . 0
1000 / 100
) ( ) | (
) ( ) | (
) | (
3 . 0
1000
750
750
100
1000
250
250
200
) ( ) | ( ) (
1
1 1
1
1
=
=
=
=
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
=

=
=
k
i
i i
i i
k
i
A P A B P
A P A B P
B A P
A P A B P B P
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4.4 APPLICATION IN PH STAT EXCEL
Menu : Add
In>PHStat>Prob&Prob.
Dist>Simple&Joint
Prob
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4.4 APPLICATION IN PH STAT EXCEL
Excel will give new
sheet
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4.4 APPLICATION IN PH STAT EXCEL
Input the data in
C5 until D6
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EXERCISES
1. Calculate
S
7
1
2
3 4
5
6
A B
C
Get :
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.

B A
C A
C B
' B A
C B A
' ) ( C B A
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EXERCISES
2. If P(A) = 0,5 and = 0,1 and =0.8. What are
the possible value for P(B) and P(B)?

3. A car repair is either on time or late and either satisfactory or
unsatisfactory. If a repair is made on time, then there is a
probability of 0.85 that is satisfactory. There is a probability of
0.77 that a repair will be made on time. What is the probability
that a repair is made on time and is satisfactory?
) ( B A P
) ( B A P
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EXERCISES
4. A company sells a certain type of car that is assembles in one
of four possible locations. Plant I supplies 20% of the cars,
plant II 24%, plant III 25%, and plant IV 31%. A customer
buying a car does not know where the car has been
assembled. A car assembled in plant I has a probability of 0.05
of receiving a claim on its warranty, plant II is 0.11, plant III is
0.03, and plant IV is 0.08. Calculate
a. The probability that a claim on the warranty of the car will
be required.
b. If a claim is made on the warranty of the car, how does this
change these probabilities in plant I, II, III, and IV?
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EXERCISES
5
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THANK YOU