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Aniket Kumar
Himanshu Manchanda Megha Dhariwal Nishtha Srivastava Tarunpreet Singh
uses financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stock price.
It is an examination of underlying forces that affect the
The
price on the stock market does not fully reflect a stocks real value. the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals.
In
The approach to fundamental analysis is often referred to as E-I-C Approach. The E-I-C denotes the three parts of the fundamental analysis :
Economy Approach Industrial Approach Company Approach
Investors Approach
Top-down
approach
approach
Bottom-up
Countries
go through the business or economic cycle, and the stage of the cycle at which a country is in, has a direct impact both on industry and individual companies. four stages of an economic cycle are:
The
Foreign Exchange Reserves Foreign Exchange Risk Foreign Debt and the Balance of Trade Inflation Interest Rates Taxation Government Policy
Industry Analysis
The industries that contribute to the output of the major segments of the economy vary in their growth rate and in their overall contribution to economic activity. Some grow more rapidly than the GDP and offer the expectation of continued growth. Others maintain a growth comparable to that of the GDP. A few are unable to expand and decline in economic significance
The first step in industry is to determine the cycle it is in, or the stage of maturity of the industry. All industries evolve through the following stages: 1. Introduction
2. Growth
3. Maturity
4. Decline
Industry Characteristics
Whether the industry is cyclical, fluctuating or stable as the prospects for growth will depend on these factors to an extent
After a study of past the future prospects of the industry are to be assessed. The purpose, project demanded, input availabilities economies of scale and the position of competitors in the market are to be probed in.
India represents worlds largest and fastest growing automobile market. Large middle class population , improving income levels and improved technology have boosted automobile demand Even in wake of economic slowdown , the industry sustained its positive growth momentum mainly because of strong domestic demand for passenger car The passenger car market, which constitutes around 78.5% of passenger vehicle sales (in FY 2010), has immense growth potential as passenger car stock stood at around 11.6 per 1,000 people in 2009.
in the future?
Is it able to repay its debts?
Is management trying to "cook the books"?
The procedure commonly followed by the investment analysts to estimate the intrinsic value of a share:
Estimate the expected earnings per share Establish a future PE ratio Develop a value anchor & a value range
EPS forecast is based on a number of assumptions about the behavior of revenues and cost. Marutis Expected EPS
The price earnings (PE) ratio reflects the price currently being paid by the market for each rupee of currently reported EPS.
It is calculated as follows: = average of last five years dividend payout ratio =11+8.09+9.7+9.78+9.72 5 =9.658
EPS 85.9 -
DIVIDEND
8.29 -
Value anchor
Value Range = 1193.29 to 1247.67
1225.4
Recommendation: BUY
Net Profit
EPS
Debt Equity Ratios ROE dividend
Ratios
Net profit margin
Debt/equity
F.Asset turnover Return on assets
Maruti 10.29 1.5 79.2 7.1 0.02 3.09 9.26% 12.75% 16.6 9.39%
Tata motors 3.75 0.77 28.55 5.26 0.79 2.19 2.89% 5.74% 9.04 3.91
Ratios
Maruti 2011 Net profit margin 10.29 Current ratio 1.5 EPS 79.2 Gross profit margin 7.1 Debt/equity 0.02 F.Asset turnover 3.09 Return on assets 9.26% Earning power 12.75% ROCE 9.39%
Maruti 2010 8.34 1.02 86.4 9.93 0.06 2.82 11.44 16.17 11.60
Marketing Dividend
policies
Operating
efficiency
policies
Accounting
Capital
structure
Management
The
first variable that influences future earnings in terms of both quality and quantity is the marketing results of the firm in comparison to the industry.
This
Stability of sales.
Marketing contd.
Share of the company in the industry: The rupee amount of annual sales and its share of the market helps to determine a companys relative competitive position within the industry and how successful it has been in meeting competition.
Estimated sales of Maruti
year
2012 2013
Sales(Rs. mn)
393,196 435,858
growth percentage
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stability of sales will provide stable earning for a firm. A stability in sales will allow for better financial
Management
tries to have a stable dividend policy and increase the dividends only when they expect they will be able to able to maintain the higher rate of dividends in future. of Maruti for the last 5 years
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Dividend 9.72 9.78 9.7 8.09 11
Dividend
Operating rate
Capital expenditure
Before
Depreciation is the process by which a company allocates an assets cost over the duration of its useful life. The purpose of recording depreciation as an expense is to spread the initial price of the asset over its useful life. As an investor, you need to now how the choice of depreciation method affects an income statement and balance sheet in the short term A closer look at depreciation should remind the investors that the improvements in earnings per share and book value can, in some cases, result from little more than strokes of pen.
It is quite possible that earnings and net asset value are sometimes boosted and hence have nothing to do with improved business performance, and in turn, dont signal strong long-term fundamentals.
Companies
The
Chart Title
TOTAL DEBT 0% EQUITY
100%
Management
is ultimately responsible for applying company resources effectively and efficiently to accomplish the companys goals. experts believe that the quality of a companys management may be the single most important influence on its future profitability and overall success.
Some
1.
How effective is the companys strategic planning? Has the company been Financed on adequately and appropriately? Does the company have good relations with its unions and employees? How effective is the board of directors?
2.
3.
4.
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGHTS WEAKNESS
OPPORTUNUTIES
THREATS
STRENGHTS
I.
Brand loyalty
Service and distribution network Low maintenance cost
II.
III.
IV.
WEAKNESS
I. Changing customers preferences
II. Labor conflicts III. No product in luxury segment
IV.Comparatively takes more time to launch new product or to modify the existing one
OPPORTUNITIES
I. Attraction of youth
II. Increasing middle class income III. Export of small cars
THREATS
I. Foreign brands
II. Fuel prices III. Rise in interest rates